Throwing in the towel on the offseason

[wildcard]

I'll take a shot

+ healthy Markakis

+ healthy Roberts

+ healthy Reimold

+ healthy Hammel

+ healthy Wada

+ Jurrjens

+ more flexible roster (Flaherty not taking permanent bench spot)

+ healthy Betemit

+ better depth at AAA (all of the new depth signings)

- Reynolds

- Saunders

I don't count losing Andino, Chavez or Thome (who was injured at season's end) as negatives.

I don't think there is any argument the team going into ST is better than the squad that finished the playoffs last year.

I do understand the argument more stated this way.

+ healthy Markakis For another 200 at bats

+ healthy Roberts yet to be proven

+ healthy Reimold Who know how the neck injury affect him

+ healthy Hammel Hopefully

+ healthy Wada Premature; Maybe by June

+ Jurrjens Terrible year last year; Right leg still very questionable

+ more flexible roster (Flaherty not taking permanent bench spot) If Roberts is health Flaherty is probably at AAA; Good depth

+ healthy Betemit Check

+ better depth at AAA (all of the new depth signings) Check

I see the point. Some of this is yet to be proven. Maybe by opening day.

[BillySmith]

I see the offseason as a function of how other teams valued Britton, Arrieta, Matusz, Johnson and Tillman. None of these guys has reached their potential, IMO, and if they do, we could be in an incredible position with regard to trades. I really think DD is hoping a few of these guys step up and establish themselves this year, whether it's AAA or at some point during the season.

[isestrex]

Its much more important what Reynolds projections show he would do in 2013 than what he did in 2012 when trying to understand what Reynold leaving means. A three year average of his last three year numbers gives a decent projection. 30 HR, 80 RBI, 776 OPS in 497 at bats. That includes years when he was injured. That is what the O's lost and if they had replaced it there would be not question about Reynolds leaving. But they really didn't.

However, Reimold at 29 has not such proven record. Over the past three years Reimold has averaged 7 HR, 23 RBI, 764 OPS in 150 at bats. To say that he can replace Reynolds is a wish, a hope and a prayer that he can stay healthy and produce in the major leagues. I like Reimold. I will root hard for him but proven is not the word that comes to mind with him.

Betemit basically hits righties. And he has almost never DHed in his career. Some players have problems adjusting to that. He has a 708 OPS at DH in 29 games in his career. Valencia only hits lefties if he can overcome last years problems. So if you replace Betemit with Valencia in the 6th inning to go against the lefthanded reliever, who hits against the righthanded setup man or closer in the 8h or 9th inning?

Last years team had Markakis in RF, Reynolds at 1B, Davis at DH and Betemit on the bench. Davis could play DH/RF/LF/DH. That is much more proven and much better then hoping that Davis can play 1B as well as Reynolds did. And hope the Reimold/Betemit/Valencia can hold down three spots on the roster. By leaving Reynolds go the O's are more vulnerable to injury. The depth has been hurt.

So the O's have taken a playoff team and removed a big part of it. They are left with unproven pieces. I hope it works.

Same thing with Saunders. I proven innings eater that we witnessed to be good in big games. The replacement are unproven and have all had major difficulties in the last few years except Steve Johnson. His question is much more about his stuff holding up to major league hitters. Saunders helped the O's get to and win in the playoffs. None of the others come close to being that proven.

I understand budgets and I understand staying young but lets not fool ourselves into think that unproven is as good as proven when trying to contend in the AL East. The O's are going to try to contend with a less proven team then the one that led to the surge in August and Sept and that played a huge part in October. Buckle Up.

I simply cannot refer to Mark Reynolds and Joe Saunders as "proven players" with their various inconsistencies.

Would you at least admit that the current constructed team has more upside than the one that led to the surge in Aug and Sept?

[Frobby]

I'm pretty sure Frobby said we had more than the usual number of injuries last season. Here's what he said:"Over the last 7 years, the Orioles' splits have been 59/30/11. So, pretty close to average. Last year was particularly bad, 23/46/31." Also I'd like to compare this year's OD 25 man roster to last year's OD 25 man before I'd say they we're pretty much the same team.

Just so it's clear, these splits related to the percentage of position players who presumptively would have been on the Opening Day roster who (1) never went on the DL, (2) spent 15-59 days on the DL, or (3) spent 60+ days on the DL. Based on my looking at 7 years of history for the Orioles and 3 years of history for the other AL East teams, I concluded that a normal split was 58/32/10 (and just for the Orioles, 59/30/11). So, last year was particularly bad.

Please note that I didn't look at the pitchers. The Orioles actually had a decently healthy year on the mound. Of the pitchers on the OD roster, only Hammel and Linsdstrom spent time on the DL, plus Wada missed the year (but we don't know whether he'd had been in the rotation if healthy).

So, for 2013, it's highly likely that our position players will spend less time on the DL than last year, though Roberts and perhaps Reimold are high injury risks so you can't just look at historical percentages without considering the history and current situation with the players actually on the team.

[weams]

Really, what it boils down to is do you believe Reimold, Markakis and Jurrjens or whatever addition you feel like picking are > Saunders and Reynolds.

I still believe that Elimination Joe is coming back.

[El Gordo]

I'm growing weary of this.

The team right now is better than the team that played in Game 5 of the ALDS. That isn't debatable by any objective measure.

Here's the starting lineup from the team that played game 162

LF McLouth .694 OPS pretty sure he'll do better than that.

SS Hardy .671 should do better

RF Davis .827 Nick should do at least as well and play better D.

CF Jones .839 AJ could regess some because he had such a great year bu he has made incremental improvement every year so far

C Wieters .764. I look for Matt to have a big year but I doubt he does worse than this

DH Thome .786 I think Betemit/Reimold/Valencia and others can do as well if not better

1B Reynolds .763 Pretty sur Davis can do better even if he regresses. Metrics say he is just as good maybe better with the glove.

2B Flaherty .617 Think Roberts/Casilla and Flaherty will combine to do better.

3B Machado .739 He should do at least as well, I'm looking for a lot more from him.

[El Gordo]

I still believe that Elimination Joe is coming back.

I do too.

[Can_of_corn]

Here's the starting lineup from the team that played game 162

LF McLouth .694 OPS pretty sure he'll do better than that.

SS Hardy .671 should do better

RF Davis .827 Nick should do at least as well and play better D.

CF Jones .839 AJ could regess some because he had such a great year bu he has made incremental improvement every year so far

C Wieters .764. I look for Matt to have a big year but I doubt he does worse than this

DH Thome .786 I think Betemit/Reimold/Valencia and others can do as well if not better

1B Reynolds .763 Pretty sur Davis can do better even if he regresses. Metrics say he is just as good maybe better with the glove.

2B Flaherty .617 Think Roberts/Casilla and Flaherty will combine to do better.

3B Machado .739 He should do at least as well, I'm looking for a lot more from him.

Not sure why you expect players on the wrong side of 30 to improve.

[El Gordo]

Not sure why you expect players on the wrong side of 30 to improve.

I knew there was a reason I had you on ignore. :rolleyestf:

[Can_of_corn]

Heh.

You hadn't thrown out a picture instead of an actual response to me in years. Not since that wonderful picture of Bologna.

It is a valid question.

When players are not injured there is no reason to expect their numbers to improve as they get further past the age of 30.

What you are doing is hoping.

[weams]

Heh.

You hadn't thrown out a picture instead of an actual response to me in years. Not since that wonderful picture of Bologna.

It is a valid question.

When players are not injured there is no reason to expect their numbers to improve as they get further past the age of 30.

What you are doing is hoping.

Sometimes they take PEDs and improve. There is always that possibility.

[Can_of_corn]

Sometimes they take PEDs and improve. There is always that possibility.

Not saying it isn't possible. Where did I say it isn't possible? I am saying you shouldn't expect it.

Particularly now that there is a blood test for HGH.

[weams]

Not saying it isn't possible. Where did I say it isn't possible? I am saying you shouldn't expect it.

Particularly now that there is a blood test for HGH.

And I neglected my smiley. No, I don't expect anyone over 30 to improve. Unless they are a left handed reliever.

[wildcard]

Would you at least admit that the current constructed team has more upside than the one that led to the surge in Aug and Sept?

Please explain how that is true.

All the main players that are currently on the team were there in Aug and Sept expect Jurrjens, Casilla, and some minor leagues.

[El Gordo]

Please explain how that is true.

All the main players that are currently on the team were there in Aug and Sept expect Jurrjens, Casilla, and some minor leagues.

What about Markakis, Reimold, and Roberts? And Hammel was out for most of Sept. and Aug.