Is Wieters a disappointment?

[Can_of_corn]

Posts like this are why this thread shouldn't be stuck at 1 star... we've apparently taught ourselves to overrate catcher defense THIS much to cope with Matt's disappointing bat. If a time traveler went to the OH in 2009 (for some reason) and told everyone that in the future, we'd value Matt more for his defense than his offense, there'd be a whole lot of disappointment going on.

To me a run prevented is pretty much as valuable as a run created.

[Loophole]

To me a run prevented is pretty much as valuable as a run created.

And? No one's going to disagree with that. But there's a much lower limit to the number of runs a catcher can prevent than the number a good offensive catcher can create. Besides, the bare minimum we were expecting from him back then was "great defensive catcher". He's been better than that, but he was a mega-prospect for the bat, and that's what we were all salivating over. No doubt he's been a disappointment. Still a great, valuable player, but not at the level we all psyched ourselves out over.

[russ snyder]

Posts like this are why this thread shouldn't be stuck at 1 star... we've apparently taught ourselves to overrate catcher defense THIS much to cope with Matt's disappointing bat. If a time traveler went to the OH in 2009 (for some reason) and told everyone that in the future, we'd value Matt more for his defense than his offense, there'd be a whole lot of disappointment going on.

I don't think the people who are not disappointed are "coping" with anything. Would I like Weiters to hit like Joe Mauer? Absolutely. However, I'm not disappointed with a guy who catches just about every day, plays great defense, and contributes offensively. Would this same time traveler also say that despite Weiters' offensive shortcomings the Orioles would have made the playoffs in 2012 and are playing like a contender in 2013? I think this news would trump anyone's disappointment in Weiter's offensive production up to this point.

[luismatos4prez]

Posts like this are why this thread shouldn't be stuck at 1 star... we've apparently taught ourselves to overrate catcher defense THIS much to cope with Matt's disappointing bat. If a time traveler went to the OH in 2009 (for some reason) and told everyone that in the future, we'd value Matt more for his defense than his offense, there'd be a whole lot of disappointment going on.

No, I don't think you have any concept of overall value. Since OD 2010, Wieters has been the 5th most valuable catcher in baseball. 3rd since 2011. He's an elite catcher. Just not a sure-fire HOFer like we once thought. If that really gets you down, then I'd say you were being unrealistic about the risks associated with prospects.

He may not be drafted in the 1st round in your fantasy draft, but he helps the team win games like very few catchers can do.

[Orioles0615]

How has this thread not been locked yet?

This thread comes up every year when Wieters starts off slow.

[Loophole]

No, I don't think you have any concept of overall value. Since OD 2010, Wieters has been the 5th most valuable catcher in baseball. 3rd since 2011. He's an elite catcher. Just not a sure-fire HOFer like we once thought. If that really gets you down, then I'd say you were being unrealistic about the risks associated with prospects.

He may not be drafted in the 1st round in your fantasy draft, but he helps the team win games like very few catchers can do.

Yes, I pay attention to WAR, I understand it, I don't doubt that Wieters has been exactly that valuable. But I think some people forget what this place was like back then (despite my join date, I was around). What I'm saying is there was almost no way he COULDN'T have been a disappointment. But I also think that the position of catcher itself has been downgraded over the past few years more than other positions. Yeah, relative value and all that matters, but the way people used to talk about him, it felt like a certainty that he'd be finishing top 10 in MVP voting every year.

[Can_of_corn]

Yes, I pay attention to WAR, I understand it, I don't doubt that Wieters has been exactly that valuable. But I think some people forget what this place was like back then (despite my join date, I was around). What I'm saying is there was almost no way he COULDN'T have been a disappointment. But I also think that the position of catcher itself has been downgraded over the past few years more than other positions. Yeah, relative value and all that matters, but the way people used to talk about him, it felt like a certainty that he'd be finishing top 10 in MVP voting every year.

I would say that Catcher defense has been upgraded in importance as more ways to quantify it become available. (Even if I do think the folks following in Fast's footsteps are hugely overvaluing Pitch Framing).

[luismatos4prez]

Yes, I pay attention to WAR, I understand it, I don't doubt that Wieters has been exactly that valuable. But I think some people forget what this place was like back then (despite my join date, I was around). What I'm saying is there was almost no way he COULDN'T have been a disappointment. But I also think that the position of catcher itself has been downgraded over the past few years more than other positions. Yeah, relative value and all that matters, but the way people used to talk about him, it felt like a certainty that he'd be finishing top 10 in MVP voting every year.

They talked about Matt Bush, Brien Taylor, and Josh Booty like they'd be perennial MVPs too.

If you looked at the careers of all the players who were once sure-fire MVPs, you'd be darn pleased with 2 Gold Gloves and 2 All-Star Games by age 26. That's what I mean. If a Gold-Glove, All-Star catcher gets you down, then you're not understanding what the success rates are for even the best prospects.

You should read this article

- Less than 1/3 of Top 5 overall draft picks average 2.5 WAR in their first 6 years in the majors.

- Less than 1/2 of Top 5 overall draft picks average 1.5 WAR in their first 6 years in the majors.

Wieters is going to break 2.5 WAR per year easily. We should feel very lucky to have him, no matter the blind homers (myself included) said about him when he was beating up on Eastern League pitchers.

[atomic]

They talked about Matt Bush, Brien Taylor, and Josh Booty like they'd be perennial MVPs too.

If you looked at the careers of all the players who were once sure-fire MVPs, you'd be darn pleased with 2 Gold Gloves and 2 All-Star Games by age 26. That's what I mean. If a Gold-Glove, All-Star catcher gets you down, then you're not understanding what the success rates are for even the best prospects.

You should read this article

- Less than 1/3 of Top 5 overall draft picks average 2.5 WAR in their first 6 years in the majors.

- Less than 1/2 of Top 5 overall draft picks average 1.5 WAR in their first 6 years in the majors.

Wieters is going to break 2.5 WAR per year easily. We should feel very lucky to have him, no matter the blind homers (myself included) said about him when he was beating up on Eastern League pitchers.

He could end up being the best Orioles catcher of all time. Hoiles had a lifetime WAR of 23. Weiters could easily pass that. Being the best catcher in franchise history doesn't seem too disappointing.

[El Gordo]

The problem IMO, is that the myth that if you can't measure it with a stat, then it doesn't exist, obscures in the minds of those who don't play the game, what those who have, have always known. Why do you suppose that the positional adjustment for WAR is the highest for catcher? 5 R higher than SS? Just because he blocks pitches and throws out runners?

[Norfolk orioles]

He's good and he's a disappointment. If you expected him to at least be a .800 OPS type of hitter, or better, he's a disappointment in that way. It's not a crime to say it. Most expected better. That doesn't mean that he's still not very good. As a few have noted, the expectations were raised by fans AND scouts when he tore apart minor league pitching in his first full season.

Bingo. That's the nuts and bolts right there. Everything else is just blather.

[Flosman]

The problem IMO, is that the myth that if you can't measure it with a stat, then it doesn't exist, obscures in the minds of those who don't play the game, what those who have, have always known. Why do you suppose that the positional adjustment for WAR is the highest for catcher? 5 R higher than SS? Just because he blocks pitches and throws out runners?

It is not because they have more impact on the game which I think your implying. It is because the average contribution to a teams production from a catcher is the lowest. I am not even saying your wrong, just what your using to prove it does not prove it.

What your citing is really a product of scarcity not impact on the game. In other words it is hard to find a catcher that is productive with the bat.

[El Gordo]

It is not because they have more impact on the game which I think your implying. It is because the average contribution to a teams production from a catcher is the lowest. I am not even saying your wrong, just what your using to prove it does not prove it.

What your citing is really a product of scarcity not impact on the game. In other words it is hard to find a catcher that is productive with the bat.

Why do you consider RS not a part of production?

[El Gordo]

It is not because they have more impact on the game which I think your implying. It is because the average contribution to a teams production from a catcher is the lowest. I am not even saying your wrong, just what your using to prove it does not prove it.

What your citing is really a product of scarcity not impact on the game. In other words it is hard to find a catcher that is productive with the bat.

Why do you consider RS not a part of production? Is the difference in average offence between a DH and C really worth 3 W? Currently C are hitting on average .729 0PS and DH's are hitting .761.http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/positional-adjustment/

[Flosman]

Why do you consider RS not a part of production?

Where did I say that? I said that the WAR adjustment for catchers does not have anything to do with RS.