Has Jim Johnson fully regained your confidence?

[tntoriole]

Yeah, I think he's regained mine. I don't think you save a ridiculous amount of games last year and have a bunch this year before these meltdowns and ruin it all in a week.

What's apparent is that when he blows a save, you can count on him blowing another one right away. Happened last year in the playoffs and it happened this year. I guess other closers can blow a save and get one the next day like it never even happened. That's not JJ.

This is a good point. And it seems to me because he gets into just a bit of a mechanical glitch that elevates his sinker just a bit and his control is a little off, but then he works it through. Sort of like me and my golf swing, lol. No, correct that, I never work my golf swing through.

But, in answer to the OP, yes.

[ShaneDawg85]

What is really frustrating is the HBP's. When he plunked Carter on an 0-2 pitch I was beginning to fear the worst. It doesn't matter what role the pitcher is, when you give up at bats like that it's bad. He's already hit as many guys as he did all of last season. I never advocated taking the role away from him, but I'm not completely confident in him like I've been, although he's looked better the last few outings.

[glenn__davis]

Yeah, I think he's regained mine. I don't think you save a ridiculous amount of games last year and have a bunch this year before these meltdowns and ruin it all in a week.

What's apparent is that when he blows a save, you can count on him blowing another one right away. Happened last year in the playoffs and it happened this year. I guess other closers can blow a save and get one the next day like it never even happened. That's not JJ.

He only blew 1 save in the playoffs last year. He lost game 1 but that was not a save situation. Of course, he also had 1-run saves in games 2 and 4 immediately following the loss/BS, so that kind of kills your last paragraph.

I agree with the larger point that he goes through these stretches where he's not pitching well. We saw it last July, and he then rebounded and was awesome down the stretch. I don't think it's a case of him blowing one means he's going to blow another, as much as it is him going through these occasional mechanical funks.

[DrungoHazewood]

Yeah, I think he's regained mine. I don't think you save a ridiculous amount of games last year and have a bunch this year before these meltdowns and ruin it all in a week.

What's apparent is that when he blows a save, you can count on him blowing another one right away. Happened last year in the playoffs and it happened this year. I guess other closers can blow a save and get one the next day like it never even happened. That's not JJ.

By my count JJ has had either a blown save or a loss in relief 28 times in his career. In the next game he pitched he was unscored upon 21 times in 28 games, or 75% of the time.

Overall in his career he's appeared in 316 games and is unscored upon in 239, or 76%. So there's essentially no difference in the odds of him allowing a run (or more) based on whether or not he suffered a blown save or a loss last time.

[SilentJames]

The best measure of whether or not a closer is "good" to me is batters faced.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=johnsji04&t=p&year=2013

Johnson has made 30 appearances this year and has faced more than four batters only six times, so 80% of the time he either allows one or zero baserunners in his appearances. Of those 80% of his appearances he has only allowed two extrabase hits, and only one homer.

In his six appearances that were bad: he was very bad.

Bottom line is, Johnson is fine.

[Frobby]

What's apparent is that when he blows a save, you can count on him blowing another one right away. Happened last year in the playoffs and it happened this year. I guess other closers can blow a save and get one the next day like it never even happened. That's not JJ.

In last year's playoffs, JJ got shelled in Game 1 (non-save situation), had a one-run save in Game 2, blew a save in Game 3, and had a one-run save in Game 4. I'd say he bounced back twice. Also, it's not like he pitched poorly in Game 3. He solo HR to Ibanez was the only baserunner he allowed, and he ended up pitching two full innings in that game.

I don't worry about JJ's psyche one bit. I do worry when his command gets out of whack, which in my opinion is a purely physical/mechanical thing, not a psychological one.

[webbrick2010]

I have little confidence in JJ in a tight game (1 run save). I don't like the "closer" mentality in baseball. I think you should play matchups and situations and not have a designated closer.

JJ struggles against the better teams that take a disciplined approach. His secondary pitches (curve ball) are rarely in the strike zone and the good teams/hitters don't offer. Then they sit on his fastball.

JJ will dissapoint against the key AL East teams down the stretch.

Should have traded him last winter.

This year after failing on 6-8 save opportunities and due an arb raise to 8+ million, I don't see us signing him and I don't see him getting much in a trade.

[ShaneDawg85]

I have little confidence in JJ in a tight game (1 run save). I don't like the "closer" mentality in baseball. I think you should play matchups and situations and not have a designated closer.

JJ struggles against the better teams that take a disciplined approach. His secondary pitches (curve ball) are rarely in the strike zone and the good teams/hitters don't offer. Then they sit on his fastball.

JJ will dissapoint against the key AL East teams down the stretch.

Should have traded him last winter.

This year after failing on 6-8 save opportunities and due an arb raise to 8+ million, I don't see us signing him and I don't see him getting much in a trade.

Except he didn't fade against them last year down the stretch, you know, when it counted for something. And don't even try and bring up the playoffs, a season worth of evidence is far stronger than four games.

[PeteU]

Four straight saves since his last blown save.

I'm sure he'll probably blow a couple more this season, and when it happens, there'll be much gnashing of teeth and wringing of hands.

But he's still a solid closer IMHO.

[SilentJames]

The best measure of whether or not a closer is "good" to me is batters faced.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=johnsji04&t=p&year=2013

Johnson has made 30 appearances this year and has faced more than four batters only six times, so 80% of the time he either allows one or zero baserunners in his appearances. Of those 80% of his appearances he has only allowed two extrabase hits, and only one homer.

In his six appearances that were bad: he was very bad.

Bottom line is, Johnson is fine.

Just to break it down even more:

JJ appearances, Batters faced, 2013 - percentage of total appearances

3 - 50%

4 - 30%

5 or more - 20%

Half the time out he has a clean inning. Now I am sure that could be higher, but consider the following, Rivera has made 24 appearances this year, and his "clean inning rate" is 50%.

[PaulFolk]

This year after failing on 6-8 save opportunities and due an arb raise to 8+ million, I don't see us signing him and I don't see him getting much in a trade.

You think the O's will just non-tender Jim Johnson? I would be shocked if that happened.

[SilentJames]

I have little confidence in JJ in a tight game (1 run save). I don't like the "closer" mentality in baseball. I think you should play matchups and situations and not have a designated closer.

JJ struggles against the better teams that take a disciplined approach. His secondary pitches (curve ball) are rarely in the strike zone and the good teams/hitters don't offer. Then they sit on his fastball.

JJ will dissapoint against the key AL East teams down the stretch.

Should have traded him last winter.

This year after failing on 6-8 save opportunities and due an arb raise to 8+ million, I don't see us signing him and I don't see him getting much in a trade.

He has two saves each against NYY, BOS, OAK, and TB. He has one save against DET, He also has a win against the NYY where he pitched a perfect ninth in a tie game.

So basically I don't know what you are seeing when you say he falters against "better" teams.

As for command issues, more than half of his appearances have ended with him throwing fewer than 16 pitches. 25 out of 30 are under 20 pitches. He has walked seven people in 30 appearances. Take away a bad week and he has walked two in 26 appearances.

[Dipper9]

Regardless of whether you supported leaving JJ in the closer role or not after he'd blown 4 saves out of five, you had to be nervous when he took the mound. Now he's saved 5 in a row, allowing only 2 hits and one walk while striking out five. Today a runner reached on an error and then JJ plunked the next guy to put the tying run on base, but induced a DP to close the game.

So, is your trust level back to where it was before the meltdown? Or is JJ still making you nervous?

I'm somewhere in between. I didn't see the game today, but in the others, I saw: good movement on the fastball, good command of the curve, but command of the fastball not quite at JJ's normal levels, and no real use of the changeup. He's gotten good results lately but my confidence is not all the way back to normal.

Your thoughts?

Not fully comfortable. Yesterday after the error and plunked batter, I saw a meltdown on the horizon. Thankfully he got the double play to end it, so all was good, but I would be lying if I didn't say I was scared! If you're scared, say you're scared....I WAS SCARED!

[atomic]

I don't have much confidence in him yet. I thought he would blow the game after he hit the batter yesterday.

[BMann]

JJ just isn't your typical "blow 'em away" closer, so my confidence is never super-high. But like most baseball fans (especially O's fans), I spend most of the game worrying how we might blow it, or how that runner left on 3rd will cost us this one...

The last time I felt truly confident in our closer was when BJ Ryan was throwing darts out of the 'pen in the mid-2000s. But I just checked and see his save % in '05 was a fairly average 88% (36-for-41). But when Ryan was on, he was unhittable. Johnson, by comparison, relies on his defense much more, averaging half as many K's/9 as Ryan did. Thankfully, our D is a lot stronger now than it was during the lean years!