Orioles RISP Tracking Thread

[Moose Milligan]

Trea, it's not your message. It's how you present it.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Enlighten me. Because everyone that I have asked that has baseball knowledge says that this obsession is unhealthy, untrue, and is borderline an agenda piece.

As others have indicated, hitting with RISP isn't actionable (because it isn't a skill), whether you believe it's a problem or not. I'd say it's the very least of our things to be concerned about.

[OFFNY]

In the latest MASN poll the majority feel RISP issues are the #1 concern with the Orioles right now. Just because a select few don't believe this and choose to mock and critique rather than contribute anything meaningful isn't a reason to shut down the thread. Some posters are actually following this and contributing.

Coming from you, that is ........ there are no words to describe what that it. "Pot meet kettle" doesn't even do it justice.

Also, those "select few" that you are referring to have contributed A LOT in fact and relevance in regard to the topic of this thread.

[weams]

Front page: http://www.masnsports.com/index_orioles.php

You do agree that that your numbers don't support this argument though. Right? I mean, the other two choices are minus a third of an inning according to Tony-OH and and 16 out of 30 in bullpen ERA. All of our offensive statistics are better than middling.

[weams]

As others have indicated, hitting with RISP isn't actionable (because it isn't a skill), whether you believe it's a problem or not. I'd say it's the very least of our things to be concerned about.

Thank you. I respect your thoughts on this.

[JTrea81]

Trea, it's not your message. It's how you present it.

I realize my thinking isn't followed by many, and this thread wasn't intended to show that but I felt the need to respond to posts that brought up those viewpoints from another thread. Sadly had somebody else posted this, I'm sure a more non-biased view could have been seen from the numbers themselves. I will continue to post the results with RISP of each game, however as there is no way to track this via fan accessible sites other than seeing a season wide average and given the inconsistency lately, that is not a proper way to track it IMO.

[TonySoprano]

Maybe we don't need a tracking tread for this? Thoughts?

What exactly is he "tracking?" There isn't any context given. How many runs did we score? How many of those hits actually drove in a run? How many runs did we get without a runner in scoring position? What was the flippin' result of the game, win or loss? How is the rest of the league doing by comparison?

How many people really believe they don't get it? Tell 'em Buck.

“It’s half full, half empty. I understand there’s two parts to that equation,” Orioles manager Buck Showalter said. “You get them out there, and you’ve got to get them in. That would fall under blankety-blank obvious if I said something to one of the players. They get it.”

source - The Sun

About 100 posts back I said this discussion was pointless, and more and more people are coming to the same conclusion.

Now, you'll have to excuse me, my teenager is getting ready to start 8th grade in a couple days, and he's also preparing for Confirmation next Spring....you know,priorities

[OrangeJerseys]

He's just putting the information out there. How you use it to come to his conclusion is totally up to you.

This is the most perfect El Trea post ever.

[weams]

I realize my thinking isn't followed by many, and this thread wasn't intended to show that but I felt the need to respond to posts that brought up those viewpoints from another thread. Sadly had somebody else posted this, I'm sure a more non-biased view could have been seen from the numbers themselves. I will continue to post the results with RISP of each game, however as there is no way to track this via fan accessible sites other than seeing a season wide average and given the inconsistency lately, that is not a proper way to track it IMO.

Season wide average is the correct way to address this. Small samples always make for the ability to skew the data how one wants. And that is not an opinion. Tread analysis is a completely different issue. But you are not choosing to delve that deeply in to things.

[JTrea81]

You do agree that that your numbers don't support this argument though. Right? I mean, the other two choices are minus a third of an inning according to Tony-OH and and 16 out of 30 in bullpen ERA. All of our offensive statistics are better than middling.

My numbers support that consistency is an issue. The Orioles were much more consistent and did more damage with RISP in the first half of the season compared to now. And you could say pitching is a problem, however when the offense was consistent, it was able to mask that problem. Our pitching staff does not have the ability to overcome their shortfalls as the starting pitching is what it is and the bullpen arms are tired, however our offense can adjust if they choose to because they have that ability. They showed it earlier in the season. Having our offense mask our pitching issues is the only way this team is making it to the playoffs.

[weams]

My numbers support that consistency is an issue. The Orioles were much more consistent and did more damage with RISP in the first half of the season compared to now. And you could say pitching is a problem, however when the offense was consistent, it was able to mask that problem. Our pitching staff does not have the ability to overcome their shortfalls as the starting pitching is what it is and the bullpen arms are tired, however our offense can adjust if they choose to because they have that ability. They showed it earlier in the season. Having our offense mask our pitching issues is the only way this team is making it to the playoffs.

The tracking is not about the consistency, it is to show that we are not real good at it. Right? And that it is the most important thing to five hundred people who voted on a MASN poll. Can you vote multiple times?

[weams]

My numbers support that consistency is an issue. The Orioles were much more consistent and did more damage with RISP in the first half of the season compared to now. And you could say pitching is a problem, however when the offense was consistent, it was able to mask that problem. Our pitching staff does not have the ability to overcome their shortfalls as the starting pitching is what it is and the bullpen arms are tired, however our offense can adjust if they choose to because they have that ability. They showed it earlier in the season. Having our offense mask our pitching issues is the only way this team is making it to the playoffs.

I did ask you before, how many people did the Orioles have on base last evening. And how many did not score. It is a real easy question to answer without having to do much research.

[Moose Milligan]

I realize my thinking isn't followed by many, and this thread wasn't intended to show that but I felt the need to respond to posts that brought up those viewpoints from another thread. Sadly had somebody else posted this, I'm sure a more non-biased view could have been seen from the numbers themselves. I will continue to post the results with RISP of each game, however as there is no way to track this via fan accessible sites other than seeing a season wide average and given the inconsistency lately, that is not a proper way to track it IMO.

Would you agree or disagree that batting averages fluctuate for a player over the course of the season? That batters go through hot and cold stretches?

[OFFNY]

What exactly is he "tracking?" There isn't any context given. How many runs did we score? How many of those hits actually drove in a run? How many runs did we get without a runner in scoring position? What was the flippin' result of the game, win or loss? How is the rest of the league doing by comparison?

How many people really believe they don't get it? Tell 'em Buck.

source - The Sun

About 100 posts back I said this discussion was pointless, and more and more people are coming to the same conclusion.

Now, you'll have to excuse me, my teenager is getting ready to start 8th grade in a couple days, and he's also preparing for Confirmation next Spring....you know,priorities

I agree with this completely.

I'm going to cut and paste a post of mine in regard to this, and also chime on another statistic that without regard to context doesn't tell a lot.

RUNNERS IN SCORING POSITION

As is the case with runners left on base, the R.I.S.P. needs to be scrutinized beyond just the face value of the statistic itself.

Last night was a good example, at least as to what occurred in the 4th inning.

In the 4th inning, there were 2 outs an nobody on base, and the Orioles rallied to score a run. Pearce singled. Then Roberts doubled him home. Then Feldman struck out.

So, Roberts doubled home a runner who was not in scoring position. The Feldman struck out with a runner in scoring position. Now, aside from the fact that Feldman is a pitcher, let's just say for arguments sake that we had a DH in this game, and the pitcher did not have to hit for himself. Even if it had been a regular position player or a DH that struck out with Roberts on second base, the fact is that the Orioles were very clutch in that inning.

A. They started a rally (and scored a run) with 2 outs and nobody on base.

B. Roberts doubled home a run, but the runner was not in scoring position.

C. After we already scored a run, the following batter made an out with a runner in scoring position.

BUT ........ if you look strictly at the statistic of how the team fared with R.I.SP., it simply reads as an "0-for-1." Very misleading if you are simply looking at how the Orioles fared with R.I.S.P. without taking anything else into context/consideration.

RUNNERS LEFT ON BASE

Again, a statistic that is often taken at face value without taking context into consideration.

A team can score 12 runs in a game, and still have a statistic of something like 14 men LOB. Do you then say, "Wow, how inefficient that offense was. They left 14 men on base !!!" ? Of course you don't.

If a team scores 6 runs in one inning, but the 3rd and final out of said inning comes with 2 or 3 runners still on the basepaths, then the statistic for men LOB for that inning will be 2 or 3 ........ which really doesn't mean much, considering that the team scored 6 runs BEFORE stranding those runners on the basepaths.

The only way for a team to not have any men left on base in an inning in which they score runs is if the last hit of the inning is a home run (and/or a runner scores from 3rd base on a wild pitch, a passed ball, etc.) just before the 3rd out of the inning. So, if they don't "clean up the bases" before making the 3rd out of the inning, a team scoring runs will always have men left on base ........ so the statistic in and of itself doesn't say anything at all without context to go along with the statistic, as demonstrated/explained in the previous 2 paragraphs.

[JTrea81]

Season wide average is the correct way to address this. Small samples always make for the ability to skew the data how one wants. And that is not an opinion. Tread analysis is a completely different issue. But you are not choosing to delve that deeply in to things.

Small samples will determine if the Orioles make the playoffs or not, specifically how they perform in the next 6 weeks. Everything up to this point does not matter in terms of future performance except for the fact that it got them to where they are now. So that is why I am tracking it game to game as every game's performance matters.