Orioles RISP Tracking Thread

[JTrea81]

The tracking is not about the consistency, it is to show that we are not real good at it. Right? And that it is the most important thing to five hundred people who voted on a MASN poll. Can you vote multiple times?

The tracking is about consistency as that is my point. We've got a lot of zero's with RISP mixed in already and its no coincidence that we have yet to have a long winning streak with that kind of performance. There have been no multiple streaks of 6 games or more with at least one hit with RISP like there were in the first half when the team was winning at an above .500 clip. And no you can't vote multiple times to my knowledge on the poll.

[JTrea81]

Would you agree or disagree that batting averages fluctuate for a player over the course of the season? That batters go through hot and cold stretches?

Yes I agree as pitchers get better scouting reports, players get injured etc, so you are saying that this is just a "cold stretch" with RISP?

[JTrea81]

I did ask you before, how many people did the Orioles have on base last evening. And how many did not score. It is a real easy question to answer without having to do much research.

The team had 14 baserunners so that would mean 6 didn't score. Last night was a good night for the Orioles with RISP.

[Moose Milligan]

Yes I agree as pitchers get better scouting reports, players get injured etc, so you are saying that this is just a "cold stretch" with RISP?

Yes. If a player can go through a hot and cold stretch, so can a team. We've seen this team before perform poorly from an offensive perspective for a spell or two.

Sure, the lack of RISP hitting right now comes at a pretty unfortunate time but baseball is a game of averages and that's why the season is so long. This cold spell of RISP hitting could have happened in May just as it's happening now, costing us games that would prevent us from playing meaningful baseball in August and September. JJ could have blown those saves in April instead of August. It doesn't matter when these things occur, it just matters that they did or did not happen.

A game in April counts the same as a game in August.

[DrungoHazewood]

Small samples will determine if the Orioles make the playoffs or not, specifically how they perform in the next 6 weeks. Everything up to this point does not matter in terms of future performance except for the fact that it got them to where they are now. So that is why I am tracking it game to game as every game's performance matters.

So you'll admit that even if you data had context it can't be used to change anything?

[DrungoHazewood]

Yes. If a player can go through a hot and cold stretch, so can a team. We've seen this team before perform poorly from an offensive perspective for a spell or two.

Sure, the lack of RISP hitting right now comes at a pretty unfortunate time but baseball is a game of averages and that's why the season is so long. This cold spell of RISP hitting could have happened in May just as it's happening now, costing us games that would prevent us from playing meaningful baseball in August and September. JJ could have blown those saves in April instead of August. It doesn't matter when these things occur, it just matters that they did or did not happen.

A game in April counts the same as a game in August.

The problem is that even if he were to somehow, against all know information, prove that the Orioles were terrible at batting with RISP... THERE IS NO ACTION THAT COULD POSSIBLY BE TAKEN TO FIX IT. Firing Presley is laughable from about five different vantage points. Changing the players is all but impossible now that the deadline has passed. Changing who starts and who is on the bench would almost certainly exacerbate the problem. Calling up guys from the minors would exacerbate it even more. The fundamental makeup of the team is essentially set in stone. And his suggestion that someone just needs to tell the players to be more patient and have a better approach with RISP... well, that's possibly the most ludicrous thing I've read in roughly 13 years of the Hangout.

That's what's so infuriating about this ridiculous thread: The data doesn't say what he thinks it says. And even if it did, there's nothing anyone could do about it.

[CA-ORIOLE]

The problem is that even if he were to somehow, against all know information, prove that the Orioles were terrible at batting with RISP... THERE IS NO ACTION THAT COULD POSSIBLY BE TAKEN TO FIX IT. Firing Presley is laughable from about five different vantage points. Changing the players is all but impossible now that the deadline has passed. Changing who starts and who is on the bench would almost certainly exacerbate the problem. Calling up guys from the minors would exacerbate it even more. The fundamental makeup of the team is essentially set in stone. And his suggestion that someone just needs to tell the players to be more patient and have a better approach with RISP... well, that's possibly the most ludicrous thing I've read in roughly 13 years of the Hangout.

That's what's so infuriating about this ridiculous thread: The data doesn't say what he thinks it says. And even if it did, there's nothing anyone could do about it.

You obviously didn't see the MASN poll or call in to 105 the fan.

[DrungoHazewood]

You obviously didn't see the MASN poll or call in to 105 the fan.

This entire thread could have been wrapped up in about five sentences:

Q: MASN viewers seem to think batting with RISP is a problem. What can be done about it?

A: Wait. Or in other words, nothing. The August roster is more-or-less fixed, and volumes of evidence indicate that RISP performance always regresses towards overall numbers.

[CA-ORIOLE]

This entire thread could have been wrapped up in about five sentences:

Q: MASN viewers seem to think batting with RISP is a problem. What can be done about it?

A: Wait. Or in other words, nothing. The August roster is more-or-less fixed, and volumes of evidence indicate that RISP performance always regresses towards overall numbers.

Would that have generated 5,542 page views?

[Frobby]

I dont know if its been mentioned it is there any way to quantify RISP as it applies to close or tied games? I feel the Orioles RISP numbers

could be inflated once the game is out of hand one way or another. They used to call it"LATE INNING PRESSURE SITUATIONS".I dont know if

there is a number to show how often we hit well when the game is on the line.

The League:

.718 OPS in high leverage situations

.740 OPS in medium leverage situations

.718 OPS in low leverage situations

.692 OPS in "late & close" situations

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=AL&year=2013

The Orioles:

.809 OPS in high leverage situations

.790 OPS in medium leverage situations

.710 OPS in low leverage situations

.772 OPS in "late & close" situations

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=BAL&year=2013

I'm hoping against hope that these statistics will put this nonsense to bed. Our team has been extremely clutch. In fact, BB-ref has a stat called "Clutch" and the O's are tops in the entire league. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2013-win_probability-batting.shtml

[CA-ORIOLE]

The League:

.718 OPS in high leverage situations

.740 OPS in medium leverage situations

.718 OPS in low leverage situations

.692 OPS in "late & close" situations

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=AL&year=2013

The Orioles:

.809 OPS in high leverage situations

.790 OPS in medium leverage situations

.710 OPS in low leverage situations

.772 OPS in "late & close" situations

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=BAL&year=2013

I'm hoping against hope that these statistics will put this nonsense to bed. Our team has been extremely clutch. In fact, BB-ref has a stat called "Clutch" and the O's are tops in the entire league. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2013-win_probability-batting.shtml

But, we haven't been clutch "lately" and we've been "inconsistent" in the clutch Frobby. That's all I'm saying. They're all talking about it on 105 the Fan.

[DrungoHazewood]

But, we haven't been clutch "lately" and we've been "inconsistent" in the clutch Frobby. That's all I'm saying. They're all talking about it on 105 the Fan.

If only Jim Presley and Buck and Dan would remind them that an impatient approach at the plate is bad, not good, then they'd all play much better and achieve the goal of hitting .333 with RISP in every single game. Even the ones with RISP opportunities not divisible by three.

[DrungoHazewood]

Would that have generated 5,542 page views?

Are you saying that this is a conspiracy between Trea, Tony, and the Hangout's sponsors?

[ledzepp8]

I realize my thinking isn't followed by many, and this thread wasn't intended to show that but I felt the need to respond to posts that brought up those viewpoints from another thread. Sadly had somebody else posted this, I'm sure a more non-biased view could have been seen from the numbers themselves. I will continue to post the results with RISP of each game, however as there is no way to track this via fan accessible sites other than seeing a season wide average and given the inconsistency lately, that is not a proper way to track it IMO.

Don't you get it man? Nobody else would have made this thread. And if they did they would have gotten the same reaction you've gotten.

You really don't understand. You basically had a theory. You had no evidence to back it up. You made no effort to back it up and complained of other properties when called on it. People offered evidence that proves you wrong and you refuse to listen to it.

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy S4 using Tapatalk 4.

[CA-ORIOLE]

If only Jim Presley and Buck and Dan would remind them that an impatient approach at the plate is bad, not good, then they'd all play much better and achieve the goal of hitting .333 with RISP in every single game. Even the ones with RISP opportunities not divisible by three.

The funny thing is Buck/Presley have addressed this in about the best way they can which was basically "we have to balance being aggressive and smart". Biggest red herring thread of all time.