Nelson Cruz ?

[Guest]

I would rather take Connolly, because I don't want Cruz.

I really just don't get this line of thinking at all. Why cause of the Roids? Did you cheer for Roberts the last 10 years? Fact is Cruz could help this team a lot.

[raypetty]

I'd rather have Cruz than signing zilch.

[clapdiddy]

I really just don't get this line of thinking at all. Why cause of the Roids? Did you cheer for Roberts the last 10 years? Fact is Cruz could help this team a lot.

Losing the first round pick. We've already traded our Competitive Balance pick, and this team is supposed to be building for the long haul.

I don't doubt that his bat would be pretty nice in our lineup. But, the guy turns 33 this season, and he's likely going to start declining.

I don't have a problem with the roids thing.

[mcgraw238]

I'd rather have Cruz than signing zilch.

I'll take Zilch. At least we won't be clamoring to eat some of his salary in a couple years when his productivity slips. Nor will he costs us the 17th pick in a draft loaded with power arms.

[Guest]

He could but he's risky. Depends on the contract. He's 33 years old. If he gets caught again, he gets 100 games. If getting caught causes him to get off the roids then his performance might suffer. Heading into mid 30's and getting off PED's = bad combination. Potential disaster. Only on a very friendly contract, which is doubtful.

I'm sure the Orioles will put a clause in the contract about Roids.

[RVAbird]

I really just don't get this line of thinking at all. Why cause of the Roids? Did you cheer for Roberts the last 10 years? Fact is Cruz could help this team a lot.

Because he's an incredibly one dimensional player, whose one dimension the Orioles have a surplus of, who costs a pick and too much money.

He's an awful defender and wouldn't benefit much as a designated hitter because of the discrepancy in positional value between LF/RF and DH. He has been below average in player value for three years running. He hits homers. That's about it. I don't see this as a fit at all, and if Baltimore is willing to punt a pick and shell out eight figures a year to any free agent, this is not the right one.

[weams]

I'll take Zilch. At least we won't be clamoring to eat some of his salary in a couple years when his productivity slips. Nor will he costs us the 17th pick in a draft loaded with power arms.

Yeah. I know. It is a concern.

[raypetty]

Well, like others have said we just sit back and ride and see what DD does.

[weams]

Have you heard of some team putting a clause in a ML contract about Roids?

It is not possible under the current CBA.

[skanar]

I really just don't get this line of thinking at all. Why cause of the Roids? Did you cheer for Roberts the last 10 years? Fact is Cruz could help this team a lot.

Facts:

- Nelson Cruz will be 33 in 2014

- Nelson Cruz averaged 1.2 rWAR/yr over the past 3 years

- Nelson Cruz averaged 1.3 fWAR/yr over the past 3 years

- Nelson Cruz is projected by Steamer to be a 1.5 WAR player in 2014

- Nelson Cruz is projected by OLIVER to be a 2.3 WAR player in 2014

- Nelson Cruz is a high-SLG, high-K hitter

- Nelson Cruz has never been a +defender per DRS

- Nelson Cruz has not been a +defender since 2010 per UZR

He's probably a 2-win player AT BEST, and with aging, more like a 1-1.5 win player. His upside is pretty limited unless you think he's going to get a .050 jump in BABIP at age 34 (he won't). The Red Sox just signed a 1.5-win player (Mujica) to a 2/$9.5M deal. Nate McLouth put up 1.8 WAR last season. And Cruz costs a draft pick.

My signing price for Cruz is probably like 3/$6M. Yes, really. I think the value of the pick is probably more than Cruz will provide over most of the rest of his career.

If you can sign Nate McLouth for 2/$12M or whatever, with no loss of pick, what is Cruz worth? +0.2 WAR is nowhere near as valuable as #17, right? So Cruz has gotta be worth less than $6M per year.

That's before even considering the roids problem and the aging issue. Standard aging curve is to subract 0.25 to 0.5 wins per year, so you're getting maybe 4-5 wins out of Cruz over the rest of his career. Plus you have to wonder if no steroids will just completely crater his production now (see Cabrera, Melky).

I just don't get why there's anything attractive about Cruz for anyone not blinded by 27 HRs.

[Hank Scorpio]

He could but he's risky. Depends on the contract. He's 33 years old. If he gets caught again, he gets 100 games. If getting caught causes him to get off the roids then his performance might suffer. Heading into mid 30's and getting off PED's = bad combination. Potential disaster. Only on a very friendly contract, which is doubtful.

I kind of agree with this. Age + issues... I'd pass on Cruz and giving away a pick.

[clapdiddy]

I kind of agree with this. Age + issues... I'd pass on Cruz and giving away a pick.

Yeah...this doesn't sound like the kind of guy PA would sign off on, either.

[Guest]

Go get him Dan.

[Babypowder]

Like I said.. I'd be skeptical/worried, but ultimately excited at having made any kind of move. Once an Oriole, you get rooted for like an Oriole.

I don't know why anyone is trying to have discussions with this guy. Whenever he is engaged to discuss anything he provides nothing but GIFs and silence.

[Guest]

I don't know why anyone is trying to have discussions with this guy. Whenever he is engaged to discuss anything he provides nothing but GIFs and silence.

As i said in this thread but here you go 1.Draft pick i could care less this team cant draft. 2. Age He's 33 (Nate is 32) At least Cruz will run into 25 plus HR. 3. Roids i could care less (Roberts Anderson we're not perfect) 4. We have a 2 year window (IMO) 5.Not really worried about his fielding (If it gets ugly just DH him)