Does Jeter's pending retirement raise the price of a JJ Hardy extension?

[ricowiz]

You would end up over paying for the 31-35 years of Chase Headley just like you don't want to do for JJ Hardy. I think Headley from 31 on will likely be poor value given what his free agency price is likely to be. I think his 2012 season was a big outlier in terms of his production and he will not see those numbers again.

SS is a premium defensive position, as is 2b, which is why I fear paying older players high dollars to play there. You can get away with an older 3b if his defense slips a little as long as his offense doesnt drop off a cliff.

Headley had a down year no doubt, but even in his down year he put up a good OPS while playing in the offensive black hole that is Petco.

How much would he get paid? I have no clue what his market would be. Either way discussing him is pointless as the Orioles would never win him in free agency, or pay him.

[srock]

Stupid jerk face jeter's retirement media hoopla means the Orioles need to break the all time wins record to get any media exposure at all.

[mcgraw238]

J.J. Hardy loves playing here. Chris Davis loves playing here. I'm sure Matt Wieters loves playing here. In the end, they want the dough.

A.J. Burnett loved playing in Pittsburgh. Right!

I think JJ's in season extension with the O's proved his sincerity on this issue. He was in the midst of a monster season and I'm comfortable that he could have scored more marbles as a free agent. More than anyone on this club, including Davis, JJ goes out of his way to say he wants to stay and will do so if a fair deal can be reached. I'm not convinced that JJ is going to shoot for Peralta money in an extension though I agree that he will get a huge deal if he opts to go the free agent route. I'm hoping something gets accomplished with JJ.

[BradyBunch]

If we lose JJ... there is a 3rd base FA next year.. name Sandoval.

[Can_of_corn]

If we lose JJ... there is a 3rd base FA next year.. name Sandoval.

I think Schoop is a lot more likely.

[Can_of_corn]

I worry about Hardy reverting to his injury prone days in Minnesota. We're getting him at his peak years and he's managed to have only 1 DL stint.

I'd like to lock him up for 2 years, and 3 is ok but pushing it.

Bottom line guys he's the best shortstop in the AL East. Yanks will be all over him if we don't sign him.

To paraphrase John Lennon, he isn't even the best shortstop on his team.

[BradyBunch]

I think Schoop is a lot more likely.

Schoop should be at 2nd. He's been playing that position since Fredrick. Switching him would delay his call up. Flaherty can play 3rd if you are so insistent on moving current players.

[Frobby]

JJ is one of my favorite Orioles...but I do not want to make a Brian Roberts-esque mistake.

I wish people wouldn't bring up Brian Roberts all the time when assessing the risk of signing someone over 30 to a long-term deal. BRob was a one-off situation, he conked himself on the head and it cost him 2.5 years of playing time. That's not really the risk when it comes to JJ Hardy.

The much more significant risk is the simple risk that he's not as good from ages 32-35 as he was at 28-31, and perhaps misses more time to injury, though not the BRob situation. I think the far better analogy here is Melvin Mora. We signed Mora to a dirt cheap deal where he produced 12.0 rWAR for $8 mm, then we rewarded him with a new three-year deal in which he produced 4.0 rWAR at a price of $23.6 mm. That is really the risk we are talking about here.

Ironically, though, Mora's productive contract covered the very years we are talking about here -- ages 32-34. His bad contract was for his age 35-37 seasons. When I look at the 5-year projections done by Oliver, they have Hardy worth 3.4 rWAR this year, then 3.2, 2.8, 2.5 and 1.9. So they have him as above average every year except the final one (his age 35 season), which is a just a tick below average. I'd like some other data other than just this, but it gives me some comfort that objective sources think Hardy is going to be an above average player for a while still.

If I could get Hardy for three more years without committing to a fourth, I'd do it without blinking, so long as there isn't a no trade clause in the deal. And if it takes four years, I'd still strongly consider it, depending on the dollars.

[Can_of_corn]

Schoop should be at 2nd. He's been playing that position since Fredrick. Switching him would delay his call up. Flaherty can play 3rd if you are so insistent on moving current players.

Yea, making the switch sure messed up Machado.

I am not insistent, the scouting reports I have read project him better at third then second. Would you rather have an average defender at third or a below average defender at second?

[BradyBunch]

Of course. Sandoval? They guy who alternates years with being in passable shape with way overweight? Someone thinks the Orioles would invest a big contract in someone like that? Don't think so.

Sandoval is coming into camp 30-40 pounds lighter, so in the 220 range. He keeps that weight this year there is no reason to give him a look during FA. If he balloons up to his 250 plus weight.. absolutely pass on him.

[Can_of_corn]

I wish people wouldn't bring up Brian Roberts all the time when assessing the risk of signing someone over 30 to a long-term deal. BRob was a one-off situation, he conked himself on the head and it cost him 2.5 years of playing time. That's not really the risk when it comes to JJ Hardy.

The much more significant risk is the simple risk that he's not as good from ages 32-35 as he was at 28-31, and perhaps misses more time to injury, though not the BRob situation. I think the far better analogy here is Melvin Mora. We signed Mora to a dirt cheap deal where he produced 12.0 rWAR for $8 mm, then we rewarded him with a new three-year deal in which he produced 4.0 rWAR at a price of $23.6 mm. That is really the risk we are talking about here.

Ironically, though, Mora's productive contract covered the very years we are talking about here -- ages 32-34. His bad contract was for his age 35-37 seasons. When I look at the 5-year projections done by Oliver, they have Hardy worth 3.4 rWAR this year, then 3.2, 2.8, 2.5 and 1.9. So they have him as above average every year except the final one (his age 35 season), which is a just a tick below average. I'd like some other data other than just this, but it gives me some comfort that objective sources think Hardy is going to be an above average player for a while still.

If I could get Hardy for three more years without committing to a fourth, I'd do it without blinking, so long as there isn't a no trade clause in the deal. And if it takes four years, I'd still strongly consider it, depending on the dollars.

Cracking himself in the head caused his back and leg problems?

It is not like the concussion issues were the only injuries Roberts had to deal with.

[BradyBunch]

Yea, making the switch sure messed up Machado.

I am not insistent, the scouting reports I have read project him better at third then second. Would you rather have an average defender at third or a below average defender at second?

Manny over-preformed at the position because well he has huge natural talent. Comparing Machado to Schoop in making a switch is disservice to Manny and Schoop.

Schoop was put at 2nd by the O's farm system for a reason. They like him better at 2nd and not 3rd. But most reports are split on 2nd and 3rd. His ability shows he can do both but he's had most his games at 2nd. So he'd be average to plus defended at 2nd.. today. 2 years down in the minors he could be average to plus at 3rd.

[BradyBunch]

I'm guessing he'll be in real nice shape UNTIL he signs his longterm contract.

Of course.. but that's why you have a contract. A contract can say if he doesn't "make" weight... X, Y, Z can happen. Giants were dumb to not put that in the contract he signed 3 years ago.

[Can_of_corn]

Manny over-preformed at the position because well he has huge natural talent. Comparing Machado to Schoop in making a switch is disservice to Manny and Schoop.

Schoop was put at 2nd by the O's farm system for a reason. They like him better at 2nd and not 3rd. But most reports are split on 2nd and 3rd. His ability shows he can do both but he's had most his games at 2nd. So he'd be average to plus defended at 2nd.. today. 2 years down in the minors he could be average to plus at 3rd.

I think they put him at second because second is the valuable position. Schoop has also played a fair bit of short and no one thought he would stick there.

Jesus Montero stayed at Catcher for his minor league career despite being atrocious at it.

I wouldn't read too much into where folks play in the minors.

[weams]

If we lose JJ... there is a 3rd base FA next year.. name Sandoval.

The Orioles would never pay that money. Can you imagine the worry here about his weight?