Schmuck: After free-agent frenzy, it's time for Orioles to extend core players

[Babypowder]

How do you figuire that ? By what measure. Runs?

wRC+ was exactly 100 last year, which is league average. Our home ballpark inflates both runs and home runs substantially, which is part of the reason we both hit and give up so many. Comparing offenses by runs alone is not accurate at all.

[Babypowder]

Frobby made the comparison. But people worrying about his K% in general. Davis is athletic, hits for average, and OBP, as well as power, and can actually play a position or two decently. That does add to his total value.

I don't think he was actually comparing Adam Dunn and Chris Davis at all. He was merely pointing out to weams that home runs need context and a season can't be judged solely by how many homers a guys hits.

[24fps]

I'd love to see Davis play another half season before we really try to extend him.

Me too. Maybe even not address it until the 2014-2015 off season. I'm over half of the way to being convinced but not completely there yet.

[Frobby]

But not great for Davis. BTW people who think Davis is an Adam Dunn clone and their fore not worth that much haven't been watching. No matter what we offer him it won't be enough to turn down the MFY and the SUX no matter how much he loves it here. We have a better shot at signing Wieters.

Who said this?

Frobby made the comparison. But people worrying about his K% in general. Davis is athletic, hits for average, and OBP, as well as power, and can actually play a position or two decently. That does add to his total value.

I don't think he was actually comparing Adam Dunn and Chris Davis at all. He was merely pointing out to weams that home runs needs context and a season can't be judged solely by how many homers a guys hits.

Correct. I just used Dunn to illustrate a point, not to compare him to Davis. And I was specifically referring to the Dunn of 2012-13, not the earlier version who had a much higher OBP.

[El Gordo]

Correct. I just used Dunn to illustrate a point, not to compare him to Davis. And I was specifically referring to the Dunn of 2012-13, not the earlier version who had a much higher OBP.

You gave the impression that his Dunn like qualities make you hesitant to offer him a big extension. The only think similar to Dunn is his K%, and the fact that he's a big guy who bats LH. How many posts have you made downplaying the importance of K%?

[Tony-OH]

How many guys with a K% near 30% (let alone a career K% above 30%) have been consistent enough in performance to warrant a long-term contract, let alone $20+m a year?

I looked at the last few years and the ONLY person among the the highest K% that I would think long-term was Stanton and even he shows the possibility for inconsistency or a drop-off. I struggle to figure out how folks can be that confident in Davis, unless it's some kind of eye-test filtered through the thick lens of pie-eyed optimism.

Like Frobby, I guess I just don't put much value in HRs standing alone. And I think there's a non-insignificant risk (otherwise known as a significant risk, I guess) that you'd basically be buying Carlos Pena circa 2007. Minus a bit of BB%.

I do think we undervalue Wieters, and he's coming off a down year, but given the variables, I wouldn't go out on a limb to re-sign him.

Nice analysis Jim. The one thing that makes me think Davis can sustain solid production is the fact that he has power to all fields and will hit to all fields. If he was dead pull power, K guy, I'd be more concerned. Davis was basically the best hitter in baseball last year and no one does that year in and year out. Saying that, I can see him become a guy who is worth a big contract, but I would not want to give him a 10-year deal. In fact, the only guy I'd give a 10-year deal to right now is Machado.

[Guest]

There is still no movement on the extension situation of Orioles shortstop J.J. Hardy, writes MASNsports.com's Steve Melewski. Hardy comes across as somewhat frustrated with having to deal with speculation, noting that his previous extension came about in short order. "There has been not much talk at all," he said. "I don't know what they're thinking. The ball is in their court if they want me. They know I like it here." Hardy also added that he would want to address his long-term position before inking a new deal. "If there are any intentions at all of signing me to a long-term deal and wanting Manny to move over to short I would definitely want to know that before," he explained, "because, yeah, I still feel like I can play shortstop and that is what I want to do."

Really sounds like Hardy wants to stay

[El Gordo]

I think an 7/105M contract starting next year, would be O's friendly and a safe bet. Beyond that you will be over paying IMO. But that is miles apart from what he will get on the market. The question for the O's is what is his value to the team?

[Babypowder]

Nice analysis Jim. The one thing that makes me thing Davis can sustain solid production is the fact that he has power to all fields and will hit to all fields. If he was dead pull power, K guy, I'd be more concerned. Davis was basically the best hitter in baseball last year and no one does that year in and year out. Saying that, I can see him become a guy who is worth a big contract, but I would not want to give him a 10-year deal. In fact, the only guy I'd give a 10-year deal to right now is Machado.

Ryan Howard was high K guy with power to all fields too. I think to sign Davis now, he and Boras will want 8-10 years. I do not think that would turn out well.

[Redskins Rick]

Ryan Howard was high K guy with power to all fields too. I think to sign Davis now, he and Boras will want 8-10 years. I do not think that would turn out well.

I've been trying to think, I have trouble remembering one time, a big high dollar long term contract worked out for any team.

Been more than a fair share that didn't work out, like Pujols, Fielder, Belle, etc.

[Babypowder]

I've been trying to think, I have trouble remembering one time, a big high dollar long term contract worked out for any team.

Been more than a fair share that didn't work out, like Pujols, Fielder, Belle, etc.

There's obviously a whole bunch that didn't work out well, but there are some that did. Miguel Cabrera, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez's first mega deal, Cliff Lee, Carlos Beltran's deal with the Mets, Manny with the Sox, and Pujols first big contract with the Cardinals.

[foxfield]

Good lord - if Matt won't sign for less than $100 million, I would probably vomit laughing were I sitting at the negotiation table. In what reality does that make any sense whatsoever?

Well, it doesn't and I think that is what I said. McCann signed for 5/85 and as I noted above, I wouldn't pay that for Matt. Personally, I think he is overused and that overuse will cut him short and if he gets a big contract it will probably be elsewhere. I also agree that we tend to undervalue his importance to the Orioles. Letting him go requires a pretty good back up plan.

[33rdst]

I would be willing to go seven years with a mutual option with Davis.

I agree with the sentiment that, with his size, Wieters is a huge risk on a long term deal.

Hardy would be okay on a three year deal with the understanding that he change positions. I see Schoop developing as a third baseman so Hardy would need to move to second.

I'd give Tillman one more year. Then, if he performs well, look at an extension.

[Redskins Rick]

There's obviously a whole bunch that didn't work out well, but there are some that did. Miguel Cabrera, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez's first mega deal, Cliff Lee, Carlos Beltran's deal with the Mets, Manny with the Sox, and Pujols first big contract with the Cardinals.

Okay thanks, too easy to remember the ones that didnt.

[Frobby]

You gave the impression that his Dunn like qualities make you hesitant to offer him a big extension. The only think similar to Dunn is his K%, and the fact that he's a big guy who bats LH. How many posts have you made downplaying the importance of K%?

I did not even mention Dunn's K% in my post. Nor was I comparing him to Davis. I merely used Dunn's 2012-13 to illustrate that merely hitting 35-40 home runs does not mean a player had a great year. Go back and look. http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/139574-Schmuck-After-free-agent-frenzy-it-s-time-for-Orioles-to-extend-core-players?p=3401081#post3401081