Schmuck: After free-agent frenzy, it's time for Orioles to extend core players

[MurphDogg]

This is really the key for me. It's not that I think Wieters doesn't have value now or even in the near future, but I'm not thrilled with having to pay for a 6-foot-5 catcher in his 30s. Someone is going to overpay for Wieters with Boras as his agent and I don't want it to be the Orioles.

Yeah, with the era of PEDs seemingly behind us, free agency is even a worse way to build a team than it was 5-10 years ago. The end of the steroid era should go a long way to increase parity in baseball, as the best players simply aren't available through free agency.

I expect players aging cycles to normalize and nobody ages faster than catchers. It is tough on him, but the best thing for the team is to have Wieters catch 140 games a year for the next two years and wish him well after he signs with someone else (likely) to break down.

[MurphDogg]

Just getting this back on the topic of extensions, I don't think you pay $20 mm/yr to a guy who hits 38 HR with an .827 OPS. 38 HR and an .875 OPS would be a closer call.

While I agree with you, the important factor missing in your statement is that you wouldn't pay a first baseman that much money for those stats. Elsewhere on the diamond, $20 million could be worth it for that kind of offense.

[Lucky Jim]

How many guys with a K% near 30% (let alone a career K% above 30%) have been consistent enough in performance to warrant a long-term contract, let alone $20+m a year?

I looked at the last few years and the ONLY person among the the highest K% that I would think long-term was Stanton and even he shows the possibility for inconsistency or a drop-off. I struggle to figure out how folks can be that confident in Davis, unless it's some kind of eye-test filtered through the thick lens of pie-eyed optimism.

Like Frobby, I guess I just don't put much value in HRs standing alone. And I think there's a non-insignificant risk (otherwise known as a significant risk, I guess) that you'd basically be buying Carlos Pena circa 2007. Minus a bit of BB%.

I do think we undervalue Wieters, and he's coming off a down year, but given the variables, I wouldn't go out on a limb to re-sign him.

[Frobby]

While I agree with you, the important factor missing in your statement is that you wouldn't pay a first baseman that much money for those stats. Elsewhere on the diamond, $20 million could be worth it for that kind of offense.

Yes, good point. Adam Jones putting up an .825 OPS in CF is much more valuable than Davis doing that at 1B.

[CA-ORIOLE]

How many guys with a K% near 30% (let alone a career K% above 30%) have been consistent enough in performance to warrant a long-term contract, let alone $20+m a year?

I looked at the last few years and the ONLY person among the the highest K% that I would think long-term was Stanton and even he shows the possibility for inconsistency or a drop-off. I struggle to figure out how folks can be that confident in Davis, unless it's some kind of eye-test filtered through the thick lens of pie-eyed optimism.

Like Frobby, I guess I just don't put much value in HRs standing alone. And I think there's a non-insignificant risk (otherwise known as a significant risk, I guess) that you'd basically be buying Carlos Pena circa 2007. Minus a bit of BB%.

I'd agree if we were talking about someone ordinary, but we're not. This guy puts balls in the air and they go out at an extraordinary pace. I'm not sure I see that changing anytime soon considering his power and the way he has adapted his swing. Not to mention more walks easing the pain. But yeah, I wouldn't want to give him an 8-10 year extension.

[Lucky Jim]

I'd agree if we were talking about someone ordinary, but we're not. This guy puts balls in the air and they go out at an extraordinary pace. I'm not sure I see that changing anytime soon considering his power and the way he has adapted his swing. Not to mention more walks easing the pain. But yeah, I wouldn't want to give him an 8-10 year extension.

I suppose. I'm not willing to bank $20+m on the hope that changes seen in one year are permanent. It's a gamble - and probably not as bad as, say, the Ryan Howard extension. But a pretty big one nonetheless. Regardless of his power, and even taking into account the changes that have helped make him into a legitimate MLB hitter (the lower swing % both in- and out-of-zone), the K% is a data point that, almost as a rule, suggests huge instability, uncertainty, variability.

[weams]

I suppose. I'm not willing to bank $20+m on the hope that changes seen in one year are permanent. It's a gamble - and probably not as bad as, say, the Ryan Howard extension. But a pretty big one nonetheless. Regardless of his power, and even taking into account the changes that have helped make him into a legitimate MLB hitter (the lower swing % both in- and out-of-zone), the K% is a data point that, almost as a rule, suggests huge instability, uncertainty, variability.

I'd love to see Davis play another half season before we really try to extend him.

[El Gordo]

Can't see Wieters signing for less than McCann. 5/85 or 17m/yr.

I'd say that would be toward the low end. But suppose he has two more seasons of around .700 OPS. And doesn't make the AS team? I think that might take him under, especially if he is stick with a QO as well.

[OriolesMagic83]

I would like to see the O's extend Tillman now before he reaches arbitration. If he was a free agent, he would earn well over $15 mill/year. Offer him a 6 yr/$55-60 mill deal. If he makes slight improvements, there will be teams fighting to give him a Greinke type deal when he hits FA.

[El Gordo]

35 to 40 homers is a great year in today's game.

But not great for Davis. BTW people who think Davis is an Adam Dunn clone and their fore not worth that much haven't been watching. No matter what we offer him it won't be enough to turn down the MFY and the SUX no matter how much he loves it here. We have a better shot at signing Wieters.

[El Gordo]

Let's put it this way -- Davis hit 33 homers in 2012, in 139 games. If he plays 160 games instead, that HR rate would project out to 38 homers. But I wouldn't consider that to be a "great" season from Davis if he mirrored his 2012 line of .270/.326/.501. I'd consider that a decent season, but sort of disappointing.

There are some warning signs that Davis' BA and OBP could slip from last year's levels. He was down significantly in those categories in the second half of last year. But I don't think he will slip all the way to where he was in 2012. I think he will be somewhere in between, and that will be very good, maybe even good enough to be called great.

A Davis who's numbers fall some where in the middle of 2012 and 2013 is in the Prince Fielder ballpark. Look how much money he got. It's not just Davis' performance, it's his market. Add Boras+ MFY+BOS and you have mega bucks.

[Babypowder]

You simply value home runs more than I do. I feel our 2013 offense, which easily led the league in homers, was good but not great, because we didn't have enough guys getting on base. Therefore, if Davis' OBP slips significantly in 2014, which I fear it will, that will be bad for our offense, even if he still hits quite a few bombs, which I fully expect him to do.

There is a lot of room between a .326 OBP and a .370 OBP, though. Davis is a smarter hitter and a more feared hitter than he was in 2012. If his OBP goes from .370 to .345 or so, I wouldn't be disappointed. If he slipped all the way back to .326, yes, I would be disappointed by that.

Our offense was league average last year, for this very reason. I don't see how Davis slipping to 2012 levels would be anything but disappointing. If we were paying him 20+ million for it, it would be greatly disappointing.

[Babypowder]

But not great for Davis. BTW people who think Davis is an Adam Dunn clone and their fore not worth that much haven't been watching. No matter what we offer him it won't be enough to turn down the MFY and the SUX no matter how much he loves it here. We have a better shot at signing Wieters.

Who said this?

[El Gordo]

Our offense was league average last year, for this very reason. I don't see how Davis slipping to 2012 levels would be anything but disappointing. If we were paying him 20+ million for it, it would be greatly disappointing.

How do you figuire that ? By what measure. Runs?

[El Gordo]

Who said this?

Frobby made the comparison. But people worrying about his K% in general. Davis is athletic, hits for average, and OBP, as well as power, and can actually play a position or two decently. That does add to his total value.