Why can't the Orioles draft and develop pitchers like Gausman and Britton?(Not a new thread. Bumped)

[LookitsPuck]

People were closing the book on Britton and look.

The problem here is developing starters. Not relievers.

[Redskins Rick]

Exactly my point! Matusz had one good year at age 23 and immediately fell apart. Why would we compare him to someone that is currently in his 4th straight year of solid MLB performance?

Gausman first year was not solid, and his -.7 WAR points to that.

1.3 is 1.3 wins above replacement level, is that your determine of solid MLB performance?

Kevin has pitched some gems, and he has pitched some duds.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Exactly my point! Matusz had one good year at age 23 and immediately fell apart. Why would we compare him to someone that is currently in his 4th straight year of solid MLB performance?

People who have good seasons early are bound to fail. Or something.

[aewell]

I took a different approach. I believe we give to much credit or blame on minor league coaches/teams to develop/prepare young teens/men to pitch effectively in the majors. Without going into all of the variables. I assert that the primary factor for success is talent. In every sport we acknowledge on balance that you need talent to succeed first. Thus what an organization can control best is evaluating talent prior to handing over to professional coaches. Then wait for that talent to mature mentally & physically to become effective playing in a difficult sport. I have created a list of teams that seem to since 2010 (although a small sample size) have a track record of identifying talent that will project well at the next level. What you will notice is that when all teams have equal access to the same talent pool (not including international talent due to the signing process) that less than 3% of the pitchers for each draft year since 2010 have a WAR above 1.9.

2015 -631 pitchers(s) drafted

None to report.

2014 -653 pitcher(s) drafted

White Sox Carlos Rodon LHP 2.1

Phillies Aaron Nola RHP 1.7 added anyway

Royals Brandon FinneganLHP 1.1 added anyway

2013 -653 pitcher(s) drafted

Blue Jays Kendall Graveman RHP 3.1

Rockies Jon Gray RHP 1.4 added anyway

2012 -630 pitcher(s) drafted - 1%

Braves Alex Wood LHP 7.3

Cardinals Michael Wacha RHP 6.1

Orioles Kevin Gausman RHP 3.3

Blue Jays Marcus Stroman RHP 3.3

Astros Lance McCullers RHP 3.3

Dodgers Paco Rodriguez LHP 2.1

2011 -791 pitcher(s) drafted - 2%

Marlins Jose Fernandez RHP 12.6

Athletics Sonny Gray RHP 10.5

Pirates Gerrit Cole RHP 9.4

Indians Cody Allen RHP 6.1

Rangers Kyle Hendricks RHP 5.8

Diamondbacks Trevor Bauer RHP 5.3

Rangers Jerad Eickhoff RHP 4.2

Phillies Ken Giles RHP 3.9

Padres Joe Ross RHP 3.6

Mets Michael Fulmer RHP 3.4

Reds Tony Cingrani LHP 3.0

Mariners Carson Smith RHP 2.8

Athletics Blake Treinen RHP 2.4

Padres Matt Andriese RHP 2.3

Blue Jays Anthony DeSclafani RHP 2.2

Brewers Carlos Rodon LHP 2.1

2010 -806 pitcher(s) drafted - 2%

White Sox Chris Sale LHP 28.9

Mets Jacob deGrom RHP 11.3

Mets Matt Harvey RHP 11.1

Tigers Drew Smyly LHP 9.3

Indians Drew Pomeranz LHP 6.3

Blue Jays Noah Syndergaard RHP 6.3

Blue Jays Aaron Sanchez RHP 5.8

Athletics A.J. Griffin RHP 5.4

White Sox Jake Petricka RHP 3.4

Blue Jays Sam Dyson RHP 3.2

Mariners James Paxton LHP 3.1

White Sox Addison Reed RHP 3.0

Mariners Taijuan Walker RHP 2.8

Brewers Tyler Thornburg RHP 2.7

Brewers Jimmy Nelson RHP 2.5

Astros Vincent Velasquez RHP 2.3

Dodgers Shawn Tolleson RHP 2.3

Team totals 2010-2015 pitchers with a WAR greater than 1.9(w the 3 exceptions):

White Sox - 4

Phillies - 2

Royals - 1

Blue Jays - 6

Rockies - 1

Braves - 1

Cardinals - 1

Orioles - 1

Astros - 2

Dodgers - 2

Marlins - 1

A's - 2

Pirates - 1

Indians - 2

Rangers - 1

D'Backs - 1

Padres - 2

Brewers - 3

Mets - 2

Tigers - 1

Mariners - 2

Key AL East Teams Missing

Yankees

Red Sox

Rays

[Phantom]

I took a different approach. I believe we give to much credit or blame on minor league coaches/teams to develop/prepare young teens/men to pitch effectively in the majors. Without going into all of the variables. I assert that the primary factor for success is talent.

Awesome post, and I agree about talent. A few questions make this problematic though. Such as why did Jake Arrietta had more "talent" elsewhere.

Regardless, you are saying the problem is that we have either drafted poorly or not drafted enough arms period. Two questions for you:

1) How many pitchers did we drat in that time period (versus other teams). Maybe how many in the first 2 rounds? Kinda tough to quantify where the dropoff in talent is.

2) Any chance you could make a similar chart for the NL?

[aewell]

Awesome post, and I agree about talent. A few questions make this problematic though. Such as why did Jake Arrietta had more "talent" elsewhere.

Regardless, you are saying the problem is that we have either drafted poorly or not drafted enough arms period. Two questions for you:

1) How many pitchers did we drat in that time period (versus other teams). Maybe how many in the first 2 rounds? Kinda tough to quantify where the dropoff in talent is.

2) Any chance you could make a similar chart for the NL?

Arrietta was drafted prior to 2010 of course so not on the list. He always had the talent but depending on who's version of the story you believe he started throwing his cutter in Chicago based on Fangraph's stats. Why he went from the slider to the cutter after he left the O's only he can explain. But that adjustment seems to have refined his talent.

[Redskins Rick]

People who have good seasons early are bound to fail. Or something.

Baseball is a game of adjustments, they make adjustments to counter your strengths, and then you make adjustments to counter those.

Some people just can't do the later.

[El Gordo]

Arrietta was drafted prior to 2010 of course so not on the list. He always had the talent but depending on who's version of the story you believe he started throwing his cutter in Chicago based on Fangraph's stats. Why he went from the slider to the cutter after he left the O's only he can explain. But that adjustment seems to have refined his talent.

Arrieta, had difficulties with TTP, and thus pitching with runners on base, threw across his body, and wanted to throw a cutter, but the O's didn't let him. When he went to the Cubs they let him do pretty much what he wanted. He didn't have to worry about TTP, could use the cutter, and wasn't being bugged to change his mechanics.

[aewell]

Awesome post, and I agree about talent. A few questions make this problematic though. Such as why did Jake Arrietta had more "talent" elsewhere.

Regardless, you are saying the problem is that we have either drafted poorly or not drafted enough arms period. Two questions for you:

1) How many pitchers did we drat in that time period (versus other teams). Maybe how many in the first 2 rounds? Kinda tough to quantify where the dropoff in talent is.

2) Any chance you could make a similar chart for the NL?

To somewhat shed light on your other questions. I will use the Jays as the baseline. In 2010 they hit big. That season they selected 32 pitchers vs. the O's 22. However they had 4 top 50 picks where they capitalized on 2 of the those pitchers the O's had 1 selection in the top 50 who turned out to be Manny. Thus one could argue the obvious the more high picks you have the greater the odds. Which is why signing Gallardo and loosing the #14 pick may come back to hurt the O's.

[sevastras]

Arrieta, had difficulties with TTP, and thus pitching with runners on base, threw across his body, and wanted to throw a cutter, but the O's didn't let him. When he went to the Cubs they let him do pretty much what he wanted. He didn't have to worry about TTP, could use the cutter, and wasn't being bugged to change his mechanics.

This all may very well be true, but my question is why would the O's do all of this to Arrieta and you have pitchers like O'Day and Givens who have said that the organization has told them to just be themselves? And then you have Bundy, who didnt want to learn a change up and now said he is grateful that the Orioles made him learn it. But is not suppose to throw a cutter?

[Redskins Rick]

This all may very well be true, but my question is why would the O's do all of this to Arrieta and you have pitchers like O'Day and Givens who have said that the organization has told them to just be themselves? And then you have Bundy, who didnt want to learn a change up and now said he is grateful that the Orioles made him learn it. But is not suppose to throw a cutter?

change in pitching coaches and attitude in the organization.

Givens wasn't around then, and what O'Day was doing was working.

[LookitsPuck]

This all may very well be true, but my question is why would the O's do all of this to Arrieta and you have pitchers like O'Day and Givens who have said that the organization has told them to just be themselves? And then you have Bundy, who didnt want to learn a change up and now said he is grateful that the Orioles made him learn it. But is not suppose to throw a cutter?

Well, O'Day and Givens are pretty easy to solve.

Givens was an infielder. He pretty much was completely molded by the Orioles as a pitcher. And he's not a starter. The main issue has always been starters with this organization.

O'Day is a veteran. Generally speaking the O's don't screw with them unless necessary (see: Ubaldo).

There's an organizational edict against the cutter for minor league pitchers as they develop. That much we do know. And it still exists from what I understand. Bundy just isn't throwing it this year because he's worried that it was causing some elbow soreness earlier on this year. It was taken away from him a couple years ago.

We also know that there was a merry go round of pitching coaches...very much Buck's fault (yes, he is human). Rick Adair is largely pointed at as essentially being a detriment to all of our young starters. Many have come out and said much. Britton has been pretty vocal about it.

[El Gordo]

This all may very well be true, but my question is why would the O's do all of this to Arrieta and you have pitchers like O'Day and Givens who have said that the organization has told them to just be themselves? And then you have Bundy, who didnt want to learn a change up and now said he is grateful that the Orioles made him learn it. But is not suppose to throw a cutter?

Different pitching coaches for one thing

[aewell]

Well, O'Day and Givens are pretty easy to solve.

Givens was an infielder. He pretty much was completely molded by the Orioles as a pitcher. And he's not a starter. The main issue has always been starters with this organization.

O'Day is a veteran. Generally speaking the O's don't screw with them unless necessary (see: Ubaldo).

There's an organizational edict against the cutter for minor league pitchers as they develop. That much we do know. And it still exists from what I understand. Bundy just isn't throwing it this year because he's worried that it was causing some elbow soreness earlier on this year. It was taken away from him a couple years ago.

We also know that there was a merry go round of pitching coaches...very much Buck's fault (yes, he is human). Rick Adair is largely pointed at as essentially being a detriment to all of our young starters. Many have come out and said much. Britton has been pretty vocal about it.

Tillman was throwing the cutter in 2012 when Arrieta was still here. So who knows the real reason.

[El Gordo]

Tillman was throwing the cutter in 2012 when Arrieta was still here. So who knows the real reason.

Was he?