Orioles Trade Targets?

[mdbdotcom]

Olney's latest in MLB Trade Rumors discusses Drew possibly being traded in August. Would you put a claim on him and see if he could play 2nd? Too much risk in a short time?

He can't hit and he's no better a defender than either Schoops or Flaherty, so what would be the point?

[mdbdotcom]

I think the O's will add two players who have been All-Stars. (adding veteran presences). They will integrate them into the team over the next month to help them in the playoffs.

1. Catcher Kurt Suzuki for Steven Brault.

The O's will option Nick Hundley and bring him back Sept 1st. They will want to keep Caleb Joseph in the majors. Suzuki's salary for the rest of the year is 917K.

2. Sign Jim Johnson to a minor league contract after he passes through waivers.

No one is going to want to paid the last 3.3M on Johnson's contract. Miami has their attention on other places beside the pen. Once Johnson passes through waivers he is a free agent and still gets the rest of his contract from the A's. Buck convinces him to come to the O's on a minor league deal, gets straighten out in the minors, and be back with the team in mid August. He probably goes to Bowie so he is close to Camden Yards.

Johnson will not be the O's closer.

This is not a deadline deal but is on schedule for the first week on August.

There are my guesses.

Both of these would be fine by me.

[backwardsk]

He can't hit and he's no better a defender than either Schoops or Flaherty, so what would be the point?

I don't really want him either. I was just throwing that out there for the "anything but our 2bman" crowd.

[DrungoHazewood]

Yep I'm a fool and you are the same guys that have over valued very "top" O's pitching prospect for the last 20 years.

How many starters have we developed in the last 20 years? One, Two

Gausman is the only member of our present rotation that came through the O's player development system, and he is a college guy. Have we ever developed a HS pitcher?

Excuse me is I would gladly jettison Bundy for Keuchal or his ilk to enhance our chances of winning in the here and now.

How many great position players have the O's developed since Cal Ripken? None? So how stupid were the Orioles to call up Manny in '12 instead of trading him for, say, Chase Headley?

[mdbdotcom]

I don't really want him either. I was just throwing that out there for the "anything but our 2bman" crowd.

I don't think there is an "anything but our 2bman" crowd. I would like a 2B who can hit and field, because right now 2B is the Dead Zone in the lineup. Drew is not an upgrade.

[weams]

With less than three days until the trade deadline, the Phillies have made zero trades despite being among the league?s most obvious selling candidates. Officials who have spoken with the Phils have found it difficult to gain traction in trade talks and wonder how committed the team is to moving its veteran pieces. Olney writes that it will take a devotion to change, no matter the cost, for the Phillies to turn their roster over, because they possess so many expensive players.

mlbtraderumors

[PressBoxOnline]

As the July 31 MLB non-waiver trade deadline approaches, Paul Folkemer reviews the Orioles' potential targets from other American League teams. http://www.pressboxonline.com/2014/07/29/possible-orioles-trade-partners-american-league

[BohKnowsBmore]

I think the O's will add two players who have been All-Stars. (adding veteran presences). They will integrate them into the team over the next month to help them in the playoffs.

1. Catcher Kurt Suzuki for Steven Brault.

The O's will option Nick Hundley and bring him back Sept 1st. They will want to keep Caleb Joseph in the majors. Suzuki's salary for the rest of the year is 917K.

2. Sign Jim Johnson to a minor league contract after he passes through waivers.

No one is going to want to paid the last 3.3M on Johnson's contract. Miami has their attention on other places beside the pen. Once Johnson passes through waivers he is a free agent and still gets the rest of his contract from the A's. Buck convinces him to come to the O's on a minor league deal, gets straighten out in the minors, and be back with the team in mid August. He probably goes to Bowie so he is close to Camden Yards.

Johnson will not be the O's closer.

This is not a deadline deal but is on schedule for the first week on August.

There are my guesses.

I could get on board with both of those. Does Hundley have options (or I guess in this case it would be an option)?

[DrungoHazewood]

I'm really shocked and surprised that nobody on this board would give up Bundy for two months of Lester. Bundy is no where near where he was before surgery and may never get back to that point again. Our window to win is 2014 and 2015 and then it likely shuts tighter than a drum for a few years. Anyone who can't see this is our time to strike is really either foolish or blind. This is our opportunity to win it all now. We're a better team on paper than Boston was a year ago. Add Lester and we're legitimate and good to go for a serious shot at the World Series. What are we waiting for?? To see if a prospect pans out?? Sorry but I have waited 30 years for a shot at the World Series. It's time to make our move.

I'm stunned that any serious baseball fan would willingly give up six years of a cost-controlled potential ace in order to bump the O's odds of winning the 2014 World Series from 6% to 8%.

[Can_of_corn]

I'm really shocked and surprised that nobody on this board would give up Bundy for two months of Lester. Bundy is no where near where he was before surgery and may never get back to that point again. Our window to win is 2014 and 2015 and then it likely shuts tighter than a drum for a few years. Anyone who can't see this is our time to strike is really either foolish or blind. This is our opportunity to win it all now. We're a better team on paper than Boston was a year ago. Add Lester and we're legitimate and good to go for a serious shot at the World Series. What are we waiting for?? To see if a prospect pans out?? Sorry but I have waited 30 years for a shot at the World Series. It's time to make our move.

I have yet to hear/see/touch/smell/taste an actual scout or industry expert that has expressed concerns about Bundy's future. Just folks on this board.

[Dipper9]

I'm really shocked and surprised that nobody on this board would give up Bundy for two months of Lester. Bundy is no where near where he was before surgery and may never get back to that point again. Our window to win is 2014 and 2015 and then it likely shuts tighter than a drum for a few years. Anyone who can't see this is our time to strike is really either foolish or blind. This is our opportunity to win it all now. We're a better team on paper than Boston was a year ago. Add Lester and we're legitimate and good to go for a serious shot at the World Series. What are we waiting for?? To see if a prospect pans out?? Sorry but I have waited 30 years for a shot at the World Series. It's time to make our move.

Please explain to me what the Yankees have after Jeter retires that makes you think they will be competitive for the next few years? Go ahead, I'll wait.

This idea that we have a 2 year window is ridiculous. Our young pitching of Bundy, Gausman, Tillman, EdRod, Harvey mixed in with other vets could make us contenders for a while. Is the idea of the 2 year window because of Wieters and Davis? What exactly have they contributed to the team's success in 2014? This team is winning this year because of pitching. And for once, for the first time in a long time, the Orioles appear to have some depth in that area.

I'm certainly not trading Bundy for 2 months of Lester.

[RhythmNathan]

I'm really shocked and surprised that nobody on this board would give up Bundy for two months of Lester. Bundy is no where near where he was before surgery and may never get back to that point again. Our window to win is 2014 and 2015 and then it likely shuts tighter than a drum for a few years. Anyone who can't see this is..

[Morgan423]

That's almost an argument against him. His career HR/9 is more than double that. Sounds more like a string of luck.

Or a young pitcher who has figured something out.

[MurphDogg]

Yep I'm a fool and you are the same guys that have over valued very "top" O's pitching prospect for the last 20 years.

How many starters have we developed in the last 20 years? One, Two

The following pitchers debuted in the last 20 years, have made 50+ MLB starts, and were drafted or signed as amateur free agents by the Orioles:

Jimmy Haynes

Sidney Ponson

Josh Towers

Bedard

John Maine

Daniel Cabrera

Brad Bergesen

Jake Arrieta

Tillman

Brian Matusz

In the last 20 years the Orioles have drafted 6 pitchers in the top 10 (excluding Townsend, who did not sign):

Chris Smith (7th overall in 1999 - Total flop)

Adam Loewen (4th overall in 2002 - decent in the minors, flop in the majors)

Brian Matusz (4th overall in 2008 - very good in the minors, one good year as starter in majors, looks like a flop)

Matt Hobgood (5th overall in 2009 - Total flop)

Dylan Bundy (4th overall in 2011 - very good in the minors)

Kevin Gausman (4th overall in 2012 - very good in the minors)

For the purposes of your argument, Smith and Hobgood are completely irrelevant. They never had the minor league success that would have given them decent trade value. Loewen struggled in the minors with a walk rate above 4 and an ERA above 4 so he isn't a great fit to compare with Bundy and Gausman either. That leaves you with a single data points on which to reach a conclusion - Brian Matusz.

It isn't like the Orioles have had 10 pitchers that were top 30 in Baseball America's prospect rankings and all of them flopped. Adam Loewen was a top-20 guy based on his draft position going into 2004, but once he pitched in the minors he was not highly regarded. Matt Riley was a top-20 guy who flopped and Matusz was a top-20 guy who appears to have flopped. Our most successful pitchers weren't highly ranked, Bedard topped out at 90 and Ponson topped out at 78.

Basing all trade decisions solely on the outcome of Matt Riley and Brian Matusz seems foolish.

[Outlander]

I'm not advocating giving up the farm - just one player. Prospects are just that - prospects until they prove themselves out on the Major League level. This is a very good Orioles' team that may not be this good in two years with the likely exit of Davis, Wieters, Hardy, Markakis and Cruz just to name a few. Where would this team be this year without some heroics by Davis and Cruz???? Also don't understand why Lester improves our chances by only 2 percentage points??? Where in God's name are you getting this nonsense?? Do you rank Oakland at 92 percent?? Remember we're one pitch away from being 3-3 against those guys. We have all the ingredients this year to go for it, plus a great bullpen. Our time is now my friends and Lester is the guy who you trot out in game 1 of any playoff series, not Tillman. The World Series is there for the taking. Now is the time to make our move:thumbsup1:

The small jump in percent is because one player can only move the needle so much, no matter the player. As far as the original number being so small.... I don't know the exact numbers, but think like this. We have about a 60% chance to make the playoffs. Not even the division, that includes just a wildcard spot. In the playoffs, ten teams make it, only one wins. But let's assume we win the division. Then we are one of 8 teams with a shot. That's 25% on math! not counting what team is better. So we have a decent chance to get to a crapshoot chance to win a ring. That's how it is with any team. So the thought of trading Bundy for Lester doesn't sit well. Most people think that the best way to win a ring is to take you 5-10% chance as many years as you can. Not just try a little harder one year, hurting your chances in others. Think of it like the lottery. If you buy two tickets on a Monday, and I have one, you are more likely to win that nite. You're still not very likely to win tho. But if I buy one ticket five bites in a row, even tho I'm less likely than you to win on Monday, I'm more likely than you to win the lottery. Finally, where we'd be without Cruz and Davis this year,I would guess nipping at torontos heels for the division. Oh, and boston last year is definitely better on paper than we are now.