Fangraphs: The Orioles Don't Care About Our Expectations

[hoosiers]

There is a better metric, and it's called SIERA. I think the reason that fangraphs still uses FIP for WAR is that it has more predictive power than SIERA, but I'm not sure about that. The blurb says it's better than xFIP, but not FIP. It has to be something like that though, because it seems to me that SIERA is qualitatively better than FIP in every other way. From the site:

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/siera/

I wish SIERA was focused on more. Basically, it actually gives credit to high GB% or FB% guys, which is how those players consistently outperform FIP.

For example, Britton's FIP on the year is 3.03. Anybody who's seen him thrown a pitch knows that is WAY too high. But his SIERA, which takes into account his ~80% GB rate? 2.01, good for #14 among all qualified relievers. That's more like it.

Also for the record, the Orioles' SIERA is better than their FIP and much more in line with their ERA, but still grades out as the 5th worst SIERA in major league baseball.

I've heard of SIERA and it sounds like a step in the right direction, but these systems need to figure out a way, IMO, of determining how hard these balls are hit, how easy some outs are and also incorporate something for these numerous shifts teams are doing. It doesn't sound like FIP takes into account whether all seven fielders besides the catcher and pitcher are on the warning track in CF or lined up between first base and second. Exaggeration, of course, but FIP does a poor job taking well-above average defense into account.

[25 Nuggets]

MBLAM tracking might be the game changer.

It will be giving the analysts a lot more information.

MBLAM!! Sounds cool and tacky at the same time. Like something from a comic book.

But what I really wanna say is, MLB teams have their own advanced metrics analysis these days. We know the famed "Moneyball" Red Sox have their own proprietary mixture. So yeah, there probably are other options than FIP that the people that actually matter use.

Like MBLAM!! or not.

[25 Nuggets]

I've heard of SIERA and it sounds like a step in the right direction, but these systems need to figure out a way, IMO, of determining how hard these balls are hit, how easy some outs are and also incorporate something for these numerous shifts teams are doing. It doesn't sound like FIP takes into account whether all seven fielders besides the catcher and pitcher are on the warning track in CF or lined up between first base and second. Exaggeration, of course, but FIP does a poor job taking well-above average defense into account.

I thought FIP took defense out of the equation and therefore does not take ANY defense into account.

[Frobby]

The last three years for the Orioles:

2012: ERA 3.90, FIP 4.20

2013: ERA 4.20, FIP 4.33

2014: ERA 3.84, FIP 4.32

I'm willing to accept that not all of the 2014 differential relates to defense, so long as Cameron concedes that some of it does.

Cameron is right that our LOB% is very high this year:

2012: 73.8% (10th in MLB)

2013: 74.6% (9th)

2014: 76.5% (4th)

Is there some level of skill there? We've been above average three years in a row. Maybe our pitchers are better pitching out of the stretch than most teams'? Maybe it's our DP rate and control of the running game? Maybe Buck has done a good job of knowing when to pull his starting pitchers with runners on base? Our relievers have allowed only 26% of inherited runners to score, compared to 29% AL average.

The other big issue here is that our pitching has been much better the last two months than the first two. So, even if the ERA/FIP gap narrows, as seems likely, that doesn't mean our ERA will go up. Both ERA and FIP could be lower in the remaining 68 games than they were in the first 94.

[DrungoHazewood]

I thought FIP took defense out of the equation and therefore does not take ANY defense into account.

Yes, that's right. FIP is only based on Ks, BBs, and HRs. I guess if you want to get technical you could say homers are very slightly impacted by defense (ISTPers, robbing homers over the fence). But the whole idea of FIP is to only look at things that defense doesn't impact.

I think where people get messed up is when they think there's a problem that FIP can diverge from ERA because of defense. FIP isn't ERA, it's not supposed to always be the same.

[DrungoHazewood]

Is there some level of skill there? We've been above average three years in a row. Maybe our pitchers are better pitching out of the stretch than most teams'? Maybe it's our DP rate and control of the running game? Maybe Buck has done a good job of knowing when to pull his starting pitchers with runners on base? Our relievers have allowed only 26% of inherited runners to score, compared to 29% AL average.

Maybe. But I think everyone should keep in the back of their minds the fact that even if there was no skill at all some teams would be better than average for years in a row just by luck. If everyone had exactly the same skill set you'd still see fairly wide variations in results. If you cloned JJ Hardy 700 times and had an all-JJ Hardy MLB you'd have teams than win 90, teams that win 70, players who hit .320, players who hit .210, players who hit 7 homers, players who hit 38 homers. Patterns, even those that persist for years, don't have to be a result of a skill or a strategy.

[Phantom]

The last three years for the Orioles:

2012: ERA 3.90, FIP 4.20

2013: ERA 4.20, FIP 4.33

2014: ERA 3.84, FIP 4.32

I'm willing to accept that not all of the 2014 differential relates to defense, so long as Cameron concedes that some of it does.

I personally think you are right, but a dispassionate judge would say that these differences, up until this year, are not statistically significant enough to ignore the fact that these could just be small outliers with no repeatable cause behind them.

Cameron is right that our LOB% is very high this year:

2012: 73.8% (10th in MLB)

2013: 74.6% (9th)

2014: 76.5% (4th)

Is there some level of skill there? We've been above average three years in a row. Maybe our pitchers are better pitching out of the stretch than most teams'? Maybe it's our DP rate and control of the running game? Maybe Buck has done a good job of knowing when to pull his starting pitchers with runners on base? Our relievers have allowed only 26% of inherited runners to score, compared to 29% AL average.

Again, 10th and 9th in a 30 team league is not so far from the mean as to suggest much statistically.

The other big issue here is that our pitching has been much better the last two months than the first two. So, even if the ERA/FIP gap narrows, as seems likely, that doesn't mean our ERA will go up. Both ERA and FIP could be lower in the remaining 68 games than they were in the first 94.

This certainly COULD happen (the Orange Lord willing) but I'm always aware of the "fan curse" where we assume everything good remains constant while the bad improves. Will Gausman (and we are assuming he gets a lot of innings) be better than who he replaces? Probably, but that is a far cry from a jump in quality for our entire pitching staff. We also have to factor in injuries, as well as regression to and past the mean. I hope we can maintain an ERA under 4 for the second half, but cynical me puts it more in the 4.15 range.

[Frobby]

I personally think you are right, but a dispassionate judge would say that these differences, up until this year, are not statistically significant enough to ignore the fact that these could just be small outliers with no repeatable cause behind them.

Again, 10th and 9th in a 30 team league is not so far from the mean as to suggest much statistically.

This certainly COULD happen (the Orange Lord willing) but I'm always aware of the "fan curse" where we assume everything good remains constant while the bad improves. Will Gausman (and we are assuming he gets a lot of innings) be better than who he replaces? Probably, but that is a far cry from a jump in quality for our entire pitching staff. We also have to factor in injuries, as well as regression to and past the mean. I hope we can maintain an ERA under 4 for the second half, but cynical me puts it more in the 4.15 range.

All fair points. I'm not in the prediction business, I'm in the reasons for hope business.

[Phantom]

All fair points. I'm not in the prediction business, I'm in the reasons for hope business.

How dare you be so reasonable? This is the internet, dammit!

[hoosiers]

Yes, that's right. FIP is only based on Ks, BBs, and HRs. I guess if you want to get technical you could say homers are very slightly impacted by defense (ISTPers, robbing homers over the fence). But the whole idea of FIP is to only look at things that defense doesn't impact.

I think where people get messed up is when they think there's a problem that FIP can diverge from ERA because of defense. FIP isn't ERA, it's not supposed to always be the same.

I guess I don't understand the relevancy of FIP given how frequently it is cited.

[awannabegeek]

Maybe. But I think everyone should keep in the back of their minds the fact that even if there was no skill at all some teams would be better than average for years in a row just by luck. If everyone had exactly the same skill set you'd still see fairly wide variations in results. If you cloned JJ Hardy 700 times and had an all-JJ Hardy MLB you'd have teams than win 90, teams that win 70, players who hit .320, players who hit .210, players who hit 7 homers, players who hit 38 homers. Patterns, even those that persist for years, don't have to be a result of a skill or a strategy.

Just an excellent post.

[weams]

Maybe. But I think everyone should keep in the back of their minds the fact that even if there was no skill at all some teams would be better than average for years in a row just by luck. If everyone had exactly the same skill set you'd still see fairly wide variations in results. If you cloned JJ Hardy 700 times and had an all-JJ Hardy MLB you'd have teams than win 90, teams that win 70, players who hit .320, players who hit .210, players who hit 7 homers, players who hit 38 homers. Patterns, even those that persist for years, don't have to be a result of a skill or a strategy.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/vN0X0G62rTw" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Everything is everything.

[Hallas]

I guess I don't understand the relevancy of FIP given how frequently it is cited.

I think it's primarily due to its (relatively) high correlation with future performance. However, it's worth noting that the reasons for this correlation are (as far I as know) not well understood. It's not supposed to tell you how a pitcher is performing right here and now. ERA does that, but ERA also is very context dependent, which makes it a bad predictor of future performance (parks, defense, etc.)

[weams]

MBLAM tracking might be the game changer.

It will be giving the analysts a lot more information.

I believe this.

[atomic]

I guess I don't understand the relevancy of FIP given how frequently it is cited.

FIP is a stat for simpletons. It just uses home runs, walks and strikeouts to judge a pitcher. If that was so meaningful why don't they use it to rate batters? It is for people who don't understand statistics.