Fangraphs: The Orioles Don't Care About Our Expectations

[Can_of_corn]

Maybe not AA but aren't a lot of our highest picks sent there? For the half season after they're signed in June/July. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think they're at least a very very high A team mostly.

You are wrong. They are a short season club.

What MrO was pointing out was that Fangraphs misidentified the team Norris got sent to.

[DrungoHazewood]

If DD and Buck don't care about this guy why should I.

That's the way to rebut exceptionally mild criticism! Pretend it doesn't exist and therefore doesn't merit a response.

[scOtt]

You are wrong. They are a short season club.

What MrO was pointing out was that Fangraphs misidentified the team Norris got sent to.

Oh! Duh! I was thinking he actually did pitch at Aberdeen.

[MrOrange82]

Ask him, I don't know enough about their process to answer.

Since when am I known for making an effort? Gawd.

[MrOrange82]

Oh! Duh! I was thinking he actually did pitch at Aberdeen.

I'm always inclined to forgive Elvira. Don't usually have many opportunities to do so outside of October, though.

[tntoriole]

This is a really good article. However, I don't think that FIP necessarily defines our starting pitching. I've been hearing this FIP stuff about Tillman, Gonzalez and Chen for three seasons now. To me, they are what they are. I have some concerns about Chen because he faded a bit in the second half each of the last two years, but overall, I think these three guys will continue to post 4ish ERA's and keep us in ballgames.

I agree with this. I think that their projections for team performance overweights OBP and Ks from pitchers, thus the Orioles are underrated by their system. But a very good article nonetheless.

[Can_of_corn]

I agree with this. I think that their projections for team performance overweights OBP and Ks from pitchers, thus the Orioles are underrated by their system. But a very good article nonetheless.

I mentioned that in the comments section of the piece.

[hoosiers]

Still waiting for a better metric to come along than FIP. I understand what it measures and I've seen many examples where its prediction value is pretty darn good, but I just don't believe in it. There needs to be a better way to measure whether a ball is hit hard or not that is different than just counting HRs, Ks and BBs. And these days, with so many shifts, how does FIP pick up on that?

Average SP keeps a team in a lot of games though where a bullpen and defense can make all the difference.

[Can_of_corn]

Still waiting for a better metric to come along than FIP. I understand what it measures and I've seen many examples where its prediction value is pretty darn good, but I just don't believe in it. There needs to be a better way to measure whether a ball is hit hard or not that is different than just counting HRs, Ks and BBs. And these days, with so many shifts, how does FIP pick up on that?

Average SP keeps a team in a lot of games though where a bullpen and defense can make all the difference.

MBLAM tracking might be the game changer.

It will be giving the analysts a lot more information.

[Hallas]

This is a really good article. However, I don't think that FIP necessarily defines our starting pitching. I've been hearing this FIP stuff about Tillman, Gonzalez and Chen for three seasons now. To me, they are what they are. I have some concerns about Chen because he faded a bit in the second half each of the last two years, but overall, I think these three guys will continue to post 4ish ERA's and keep us in ballgames.

I think the argument is fairly sound - that the pitching isn't that good. However, they get bailed out by having a fairly good defense behind them. So at the end of the day the run prevention that should be associated with defense presents itself as a descrepancy in FIP vs ERA.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Still waiting for a better metric to come along than FIP. I understand what it measures and I've seen many examples where its prediction value is pretty darn good, but I just don't believe in it. There needs to be a better way to measure whether a ball is hit hard or not that is different than just counting HRs, Ks and BBs. And these days, with so many shifts, how does FIP pick up on that?

Average SP keeps a team in a lot of games though where a bullpen and defense can make all the difference.

There is a better metric, and it's called SIERA. I think the reason that fangraphs still uses FIP for WAR is that it has more predictive power than SIERA, but I'm not sure about that. The blurb says it's better than xFIP, but not FIP. It has to be something like that though, because it seems to me that SIERA is qualitatively better than FIP in every other way. From the site:

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/siera/

Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA) is the newest in a long line of ERA estimators. Like it?s predecessors FIP and xFIP, SIERA attempts to answer the question: what is the underlying skill level of this pitcher? How well did they actually pitch over the past year? Should their ERA have been higher, lower, or was it about right?

But while FIP and xFIP largely ignore balls in play ? they focus on strikeouts, walks, and homeruns instead ? SIERA adds in complexity in an attempt to more accurately model what makes a pitcher successful. SIERA doesn?t ignore balls in play, but attempts to explain why certain pitchers are more successful at limiting hits and preventing runs. This is the strength of SIERA; while it is only slightly more predictive than xFIP, SIERA tells us more about the how and why of pitching.

I wish SIERA was focused on more. Basically, it actually gives credit to high GB% or FB% guys, which is how those players consistently outperform FIP.

For example, Britton's FIP on the year is 3.03. Anybody who's seen him thrown a pitch knows that is WAY too high. But his SIERA, which takes into account his ~80% GB rate? 2.01, good for #14 among all qualified relievers. That's more like it.

Also for the record, the Orioles' SIERA is better than their FIP and much more in line with their ERA, but still grades out as the 5th worst SIERA in major league baseball.

[tntoriole]

I mentioned that in the comments section of the piece.

And you are a wise and learned man!!

[CaptainRedbeard]

MBLAM tracking might be the game changer.

It will be giving the analysts a lot more information.

Absolutely, I would expect something like batted ball velocity to be extremely informative. It will likely revolutionize the game.

[Can_of_corn]

And you are a wise and learned man!!

Who doesn't go by Can_of_corn on Fangraphs site.

[VeveJones007]

Dave fires back!

(sound better then calmly explains)

That's a great response from Cameron, but I'm just going to throw this out there:

O's averaged +2.1 LOB WAR from 2012-2013, so how much regression should we really expect there?