Have we sacrificed too much the last 2 seasons trying to be in "win now" mode?

[hoosiers]

You guys are nuts. We are 4 games up in the AL East. We are well on are way to having are 3rd straight winning season. By the way we did just suffer through 14 straight losing seasons. In trades you have to give something to get something. This isn't a video game. The orioles aren't going to be able to turn into some dynasty.

Lets say we have this little 3-5 year run. I'd be right on board if we had to blow it up and have a down year. Real fans understand that. The only way to have Dynasties know is by out spending your competition. The Yankees, Red Sox, Texas and Detroit have dominated the AL the last decade and it's because they spend the most. Remember it's much tougher in the AL than the NL. In the NL you can play mediocre baseball. Get 2 guys hot in the playoffs and win the whole thing. In the AL it's much harder to win over a 162 games marathon than it is to play a 7 game series in which anything can happen. That home field is decided by an exhibition game.

Those teams also trade fan favorites like Nomar Garciaparra in a pennant race. Let Jacoby Ellsbury leave to a hated rival for draft picks, let Curtis Granderson leave for draft picks, let Robinson Cano leave for draft picks, trade capable starters like Doug Fister. The As and Rays trading guys like Hudson, Mulder, Haren, Shields, Garza and more and letting contributors like Crawford and others leave for draft picks. It is not just SMALL market teams that operate in this manner; it is SUCCESSFUL teams. These teams don't just know the best value in talent acquisition is through the draft and internationally and through other teams' prospects - they EXECUTE their plans with this belief. Os fans know this too - because the core of this team is built on draft picks and trades.

My issue is that every single move made by this FO for at least a year and possibly two has been singularly focused on improving the major league 25 man roster and there has not been one move to bring a quality prospect to the organization via trade, draft pick compensation, etc. A review of the Os top 30 prospects entering 2014 had only Chris Jones (#27) and Josh Stinson (#28) as having been acquired from outside the organization (as trade for Luis Ayala and a waiver claim, respectively).

Have the Os sacrificed too much of our future? It's a good question. I don't think the loss of Hader and three top 50 draft picks is fatal to a farm system with a respectable future rating. It is the one way direction of our FO's moves - not recycling any talent, moving/losing draft picks for non-elite talent (save Cruz), and being outspent internationally by a comfortable margin - that has me concerned that this will not end well. This doesn't have to be a couple year run above .500 with respectable playoff chances.

[DrungoHazewood]

And what 3 to 5 year run? Is that what this is' date=' a "run"? The potential wild card years are going to be the "run" years?[/quote']

I don't know about limiting yourself to a 3-5 year run, but my goal is to have a team that can maintain 85-ish win true talent and make the playoffs with some consistency.

You're going to be disappointed a lot if failure is defined by not being the best team in the league/divison. The Orioles are mid-market, at best. And I think it's a losing battle to declare wildcard contention a failure, then use that failure to trigger a rebuild. That's setting yourself up for years of losing, followed by years of crossing your fingers that things come together better than they did last time.

I'd rather just win more often than not, and hope for the best come October.

[Number5]

Because organization building is about having an idea as to what you want your organization to look like. It's as simple as that. In the micro sense, there is nothing wrong with a particular move resulting from several failed attempts at other moves. The ability to be reactive is huge for a decision-maker in baseball. But if your whole strategy to building an organization is to be reactive then you really aren't shaping the vision of your organization so much as you are saying "I am confident that I can do something with whatever happens to be available to me." It's possible that Duquette is so much smarter than everyone else that he can just Macgyver his way to consistent contention -- honestly, it wouldn't surprise me based on what I've heard about the guy. Here's hoping.

Being able to think on your feet and go to plans B, C, and D when things don't play out as you had envisioned/hoped/planned is a positive trait for a GM and an organization to have in my view, not a negative one. Having one plan no matter what, with no ability to react to changes in the marketplace and/or unforeseen injuries or decisions by players, agents and other clubs is a recipe for disaster IMO. While you are critical of DD, I have been quite impressed by what he has accomplished thus far. I'm not likely to agree with every single move he (or any other GM) makes, but I have to say that his overall performance has been outstanding.

[Stotle]

Being able to think on your feet and go to plans B, C, and D when things don't play out as you had envisioned/hoped/planned is a positive trait for a GM and an organization to have in my view, not a negative one. Having one plan no matter what, with no ability to react to changes in the marketplace and/or unforeseen injuries or decisions by players, agents and other clubs is a recipe for disaster IMO. While you are critical of DD, I have been quite impressed by what he has accomplished thus far. I'm not likely to agree with every single move he (or any other GM) makes, but I have to say that his overall performance has been outstanding.

Dude, did you skip over the post where I said reactive thinking is key to being a GM? Of course that's a valuable attribute of an MLB decision maker. My issue is simple -- your central "plan" shouldn't be "I'm smart enough to figure it out no matter what is available."

I'd love to see the team operate with some high level special assistants that think very differently about org building. I'm interested to see what sort of operation that would churn out.

[Stotle]

I don't know about limiting yourself to a 3-5 year run, but my goal is to have a team that can maintain 85-ish win true talent and make the playoffs with some consistency.

You're going to be disappointed a lot if failure is defined by not being the best team in the league/divison. The Orioles are mid-market, at best. And I think it's a losing battle to declare wildcard contention a failure, then use that failure to trigger a rebuild. That's setting yourself up for years of losing, followed by years of crossing your fingers that things come together better than they did last time.

I'd rather just win more often than not, and hope for the best come October.

I absolutely agree that "rebuild" shouldn't be the response to missing the playoffs. I also think that spinning plates is how orgs wind up in quickly forming downward spirals, which is really what leads to the need for a rebuild. Philly has tons of resources and is a perfect example of this. Seeing posts about extending Hardy, Markakis, Cruz, etc. without significant supplementing of the farm or some sort infusion of talent in the mid- to upper-levels of the minors is just the mid-market version of what the Phillies have been doing these last three years.

[Number5]

Dude, did you skip over the post where I said reactive thinking is key to being a GM? Of course that's a valuable attribute of an MLB decision maker. My issue is simple -- your central "plan" shouldn't be "I'm smart enough to figure it out no matter what is available."

I'd love to see the team operate with some high level special assistants that think very differently about org building. I'm interested to see what sort of operation that would churn out.

I'm not really sure how you have arrived at the conclusion that DD has no game plan other than to operate on the seat of his pants. I don't think that is the case. I suppose we just have a fundamental disagreement on that point.

[Stotle]

I'm not really sure how you have arrived at the conclusion that DD has no game plan other than to operate on the seat of his pants. I don't think that is the case. I suppose we just have a fundamental disagreement on that point.

So, you misrepresented my post and now we are switching topics? Just clarifying so we are on the same page.

I am more than open to being convinced that the Orioles have been something other than reactive in their efforts. I think the offseason speaks for itself as far as having to fall back on backup plan upon backup plan, but it's unfair for me to characterize the whole term of the front office through analysis of one offseason.

I'd say the fact that this will be Gausman's second full season, that he logged solid innings at LSU, and that he's been healthy, it is less than progressive thinking to have him still ineligible for a full season's worth of innings. The reason, of course, is because Baltimore preferred the short term benefit of Gausman in the pen last year (in search of a low probability playoff appearance) as opposed to filling that hole otherwise and letting him continue to build up innings. That had the ripple effect of limiting his MLB availability this year.

We know the team is unlikely to keep all of Hardy, Wieters, Davis, and Markakis. What has the FO done to start succession planning? Who is set to fill any of these gaps at the MLB level such that we won't have a significant drop in performance there?

What's a move this organization has made outside of participating in the draft that has been a significant step towards building up future assets, as opposed to 25-man/40-man assets?

How far can we project the rotation and lineup based on what is currently in-house?

Those are a couple of questions that come to mind with little thought.

[DrungoHazewood]

I absolutely agree that "rebuild" shouldn't be the response to missing the playoffs. I also think that spinning plates is how orgs wind up in quickly forming downward spirals, which is really what leads to the need for a rebuild. Philly has tons of resources and is a perfect example of this. Seeing posts about extending Hardy, Markakis, Cruz, etc. without significant supplementing of the farm or some sort infusion of talent in the mid- to upper-levels of the minors is just the mid-market version of what the Phillies have been doing these last three years.

I'm not going quibble one bit with skepticism about a plan to just re-up everyone and press on. I think they need to very carefully look at their options and be willing to cut any of Hardy, Markakis, and especially Cruz loose if they can't be brought back on team-friendly terms.

The Phils were certainly way too enamored of their own guys, I've often cited the Ryan Howard contract as a contender for worst contract in the history of the sport. The Orioles, for better or worse, don't consider contracts of that magnitude so they can't be hamstrung a multitude of $10/15/20/25M long-term deals for injured/old/poor players. The Phils are paying roughly $120M for players 33 and over this year. That's the 1998 Orioles all over again.

[hoosiers]

Gausman was NOT going to be a member of the rotation for the entire season - PERIOD. Regardless of any pitcher we signed, traded for, or beamed down from the Enterprise - Gausman would have been on the EXACT same schedule he is right now.

Except that, you know, another organization might have put Gausman in the Opening Day rotation. Like the Nats did with Strausburg - so the Nats decided to put their best pitchers in the Opening Day rotation and not block their phenom pitcher with a large contract that could turn out from mediocre to poor and the loss of a top draft pick.

[Ohfan67]

I'm not going quibble one bit with skepticism about a plan to just re-up everyone and press on. I think they need to very carefully look at their options and be willing to cut any of Hardy, Markakis, and especially Cruz loose if they can't be brought back on team-friendly terms.

The Phils were certainly way too enamored of their own guys, I've often cited the Ryan Howard contract as a contender for worst contract in the history of the sport. The Orioles, for better or worse, don't consider contracts of that magnitude so they can't be hamstrung a multitude of $10/15/20/25M long-term deals for injured/old/poor players. The Phils are paying roughly $120M for players 33 and over this year. That's the 1998 Orioles all over again.

Related points seem to be consistently ignored in these arguments. One thing the O's have done for the future is to not handicap themselves with free agent contracts. That is definitely a huge positive in this environment.

[Reboulet'sStache]

I don't know about limiting yourself to a 3-5 year run, but my goal is to have a team that can maintain 85-ish win true talent and make the playoffs with some consistency.

You're going to be disappointed a lot if failure is defined by not being the best team in the league/divison. The Orioles are mid-market, at best. And I think it's a losing battle to declare wildcard contention a failure, then use that failure to trigger a rebuild. That's setting yourself up for years of losing, followed by years of crossing your fingers that things come together better than they did last time.

I'd rather just win more often than not, and hope for the best come October.

I'm okay with losing, I'm okay with being average, as long as it's part of a process towards building to being elite for a few years. The current plan just seems too focused on the now, maintaining their status as a Tier II team, to the detriment of the future. And that kind of "plan" will eventually cause you not to be able to maintain your status as a Tier II team for every long.

[DrungoHazewood]

I'm okay with losing' date=' I'm okay with being average, as long as it's part of a process towards building to being elite for a few years. The current plan just seems too focused on the now, maintaining their status as a Tier II team, to the detriment of the future. And that kind of "plan" will eventually cause you not to be able to maintain your status as a Tier II team for every long.[/quote']

I'm not okay with losing. All I know is that losing sometimes, maybe often, causes you to maintain your status as a Tier XII for eons.

[Reboulet'sStache]

I absolutely agree that "rebuild" shouldn't be the response to missing the playoffs. I also think that spinning plates is how orgs wind up in quickly forming downward spirals, which is really what leads to the need for a rebuild. Philly has tons of resources and is a perfect example of this. Seeing posts about extending Hardy, Markakis, Cruz, etc. without significant supplementing of the farm or some sort infusion of talent in the mid- to upper-levels of the minors is just the mid-market version of what the Phillies have been doing these last three years.

Yep. And this is my biggest fear. We haven't stocked up the farm enough, we've done just the opposite in order to maintain our current status (at least Philly was a WS contender when they did it). So you're forced to extend players beyond where you should, because the unknown you are facing with a lack of young player ready to step up, is even scarier. Then you have these stud pitchers, some positional talent, but you're all tied up with bad contracts to really be where you should be, so you miss what should be your championship runs.

[Ohfan67]

We know the team is unlikely to keep all of Hardy, Wieters, Davis, and Markakis. What has the FO done to start succession planning? Who is set to fill any of these gaps at the MLB level such that we won't have a significant drop in performance there?

I guess Alverez and Walker are meaningless? I guess you haven't noticed the infusion of catching talent in the minor league organization? I guess you haven't noticed that the O's will have money to spend on players in the future?

You make some good points, but you ignore a lot of positives because they don't make noise in Baseball America, etc., coverage. You ignore moves, obvious moves, that have been made to address some of these issues.

[Reboulet'sStache]

I'm not okay with losing. All I know is that losing sometimes, maybe often, causes you to maintain your status as a Tier XII for eons.

It just depends on the plan. The Astros and Cubs are losers right now. But they at least have a vision and a plan to carry out that vision, neither of which involves them peaking with a 3 to 5 year wild card run.