Have we sacrificed too much the last 2 seasons trying to be in "win now" mode?

[Frobby]

There was a discussion going on in a Bundy thread in the minor league forum that I thought would provoke a good discussion over here. To get it started, here are two posts from hoosiers and webbrick2010:

I think you miss the gist of the comments in this thread.

I would love to see a consistent winner in Bmore that has a strong minor league system. The Orioles, however, are not following any of the paths laid out by Boston, St. Louis, Tampa, Oakland, to make this happen - such as spending like crazy internationally, dealing veterans for prospects, etc. Our current competitiveness has been brought forward through a strong weakening of our minor league talent without a single meaningful move made to improve our minor league talent in two years.

Further, very few of the suggestions made this past offseason or earlier in this thread would have weakened the major league team. If we had given Gausman the ball to start the season instead of Jimenez, we'd be better off. If we had dealt Chris Davis for prospects (preferably one or two major league ready), we'd be better off. We are better off without Jim Johnson. If we had dealt Wieters for prospects, we'd be better off - assuming these trades brought appropriate prospect packages back. We would be better off because the team would have re-cycled veterans whose production value relative to their salary was declining substantially - which is what Oakland and Tampa have done so well for a while now - by obtaining prospects and lowering salary commitments to sign free agents. Those suggestions have to do with building a strong minor league system and improving the major league team.

Man I'm loving this thread... everything I've been harping on for years coming out in the same thread.

The O's failed to move Jim Johnson at peak value and got nothing.

they failed to move Wieters and now with the elbow injury stand to get next to nothing.

and coming off a SS/GG they failed to move Hardy and will get much less than they could have 6 months ago.

The O's are facing a scary cliff starting next year.

Meanwhile Boston had 14 first round picks in the last 5 years and many are percolating to the top of their farm system and breaking into the majors.

So what do you think? Have we held on to our players too long? Given up too much to try to acquire players to help us win now? Will we fall off the precipice soon?

My own feeling is that after 14 straight losing seasons, the Orioles almost had to go to "win now" mode once they saw a window of opportunity. And I don't think our window necessarily will close after next season, either. We obviously did not know that Wieters would get hurt and that Davis would fall so far, so I don't find much force in the part of the argument that says we could have done just as well without those guys -- that's only true in hindsight. Trading them would have involved a probable tradeoff of win now vs. win later, despite how things have played out this season. So yes, I see the downside to the choices DD has made, but I still think that in general, he chose correctly.

[Number5]

There was a discussion going on in a Bundy thread in the minor league forum that I thought would provoke a good discussion over here. To get it started, here are two posts from hoosiers and webbrick2010:

So what do you think? Have we held on to our players too long? Given up too much to try to acquire players to help us win now? Will we fall off the precipice soon?

My own feeling is that after 14 straight losing seasons, the Orioles almost had to go to "win now" mode once they saw a window of opportunity. And I don't think our window necessarily will close after next season, either. We obviously did not know that Wieters would get hurt and that Davis would fall so far, so I don't find much force in the part of the argument that says we could have done just as well without those guys -- that's only true in hindsight. Trading them would have involved a probable tradeoff of win now vs. win later, despite how things have played out this season. So yes, I see the downside to the choices DD has made, but I still think that in general, he chose correctly.

[video=youtube;-_IlNbsILLE]

[ExileAngelos]

This "scary cliff" is not so concerning if Gausman, Bundy and later Harvey develop like we hope. Team would be all about pitching and defense. We still have AJ and Machado as ligit franchise position players for the long term as well.

[UMDTerrapins]

I'm not bothered too much by what we've dealt away the last two years, but I am very concerned about not adding much to the minor leagues in that time. Our current team was largely made competitive on the back of having a number of high draft picks for a bunch of years in a row and the Bedard trade. If we are trying to remain competitive year in year out, without trading off players like Wieters/Davis as they near the end of their contracts, how are we going to re-stock the minor leagues going forward? Beyond this current ML team, we have Gausman, Bundy and Harvey to build around in the future. Schoop and Machado as well. That's a good start, but after that you'd have to be concerned about finding more in house building blocks....we don't have the means to fill 20 more roster spots through free agency/arbitration/extensions.

edit: I am overlooking some guys like Sisco, EdRod, etc who may very well become regulars in the future, but the point remains that we need more top prospects in the system in order to remain competitive

[backwardsk]

My answer to your title question would be "no". I'm not going to fault our GM for trying to win. They fell short last season. That happens. Our window to compete is still wide open. However, they still need to develop talent.

[Aristotelian]

No, the ultimate goal is winning. You have to have a core of star players to make that happen. You also have to have ongoing player development to keep it happening. You don't just develop players only to trade them away. I think we have done a good job of balancing, building a contending team without trading away any of our top prospects. Not too many teams have two potential #1 starters in their farm system. We are weak on position players. Let's say we are not in contention next year. At that point we would be wise to take what we can get for Chen, Davis, etc. For right now, we go for it.

I was 8 years old when the O's won the world series in '83. I would like to see it happen again even if it means a few years of rebuilding.

[glenn__davis]

Have to agree with dan-O.

By and large, I think they've kept the right guys and traded the right guys.

Johnson probably should have been dealt after 2012. Would love to know what the market was for him, though - I suspect it was not very hot.

Losing Hader, the pick, and the first 2 picks this year is likely to hurt the future, no doubt. But at some point, you have to try to win, too. Walking that line is tough.

[MrOrange82]

Man.

Who knows. And frankly, who cares.

We're winning after 14 years of not. And we started winning with basically no farm system. Dan went out and acquired Chen and Gonzo, got Hammel on a good year, a few guys panned out like Davis and Hunter out of the 'pen. All with basically just Machado and Bundy in the system and that's it.

I'm not real worried about sacrificing anything for the sake of wins, since winning is the point. They sacrificed the right guys. And they kept most of the right guys so far. Baseball is a gamble.

I'm on the fence about this, but I agree with the bolded. I've said several times this year that the O's should be, and should have been, sellers. And fans keep bringing up the same (very short) list of prospects to show that the MiLs aren't a complete disaster (everyone should take a look at Bundy's rehab thus far, btw).

Still, the division is weak (arguably crippled), and an O's team that isn't actually much better than last year's has a chance to win the East outright. And from there...dice roll through the playoffs?

I don't know...it'd be nice to feel confident that the O's have good draft/development people and a revamped intake system for young talent, but, even if they don't, I do think DD's done a pretty great job of squeezing the most that he can out of the current situation (i.e., making a variety of moves, some small and some larger, under the supervision of one of the worst owners in professional sports).

[bpilktree]

I'm on the fence about this, but I agree with the bolded. I've said several times this year that the O's should be, and should have been, sellers. And fans keep bringing up the same (very short) list of prospects to show that the MiLs aren't a complete disaster (everyone should take a look at Bundy's rehab thus far, btw).

Still, the division is weak (arguably crippled), and an O's team that isn't actually much better than last year's has a chance to win the East outright. And from there...dice roll through the playoffs?

I don't know...it'd be nice to feel confident that the O's have good draft/development people and a revamped intake system for young talent, but, even if they don't, I do think DD's done a pretty great job of squeezing the most that he can out of the current situation (i.e., making a variety of moves, some small and some larger, under the supervision of one of the worst owners in professional sports).

Bundy had made 5 starts over a time span of two years until he went to the Carolina league. The Orioles and Buck knew it was going to be just a year to get the arm strength back not a year to help the team. The fans and even some media blew smoke thinking a guy could just jump in and help this team in September IMO. He will be fine with more pitching and should help this team next season.

[Stotle]

There was a discussion going on in a Bundy thread in the minor league forum that I thought would provoke a good discussion over here. To get it started, here are two posts from hoosiers and webbrick2010:

So what do you think? Have we held on to our players too long? Given up too much to try to acquire players to help us win now? Will we fall off the precipice soon?

My own feeling is that after 14 straight losing seasons, the Orioles almost had to go to "win now" mode once they saw a window of opportunity. And I don't think our window necessarily will close after next season, either. We obviously did not know that Wieters would get hurt and that Davis would fall so far, so I don't find much force in the part of the argument that says we could have done just as well without those guys -- that's only true in hindsight. Trading them would have involved a probable tradeoff of win now vs. win later, despite how things have played out this season. So yes, I see the downside to the choices DD has made, but I still think that in general, he chose correctly.

I hesitate to call anything a "mistake" since I don't have access to all of the variables at play, but if I were to say Baltimore made a mistake it would be not expanding payroll in the short term to help bridge the gap and facilitate the transition from up-and-comer to contender. I think signing a guy like Ellsbury and trading Davis for a couple of cost controlled pieces would have gone a long way to giving this year's team (and the team in the shot term) a more stable foundation. Going to $115 MM or $120 MM this year and then slowly ramping down as some of the contracts come off the books this year.

It also makes it less likely you will have to go back into your farm system or comp picks to try and plug holes, which is potentially creating a larger long term problem as far as org talent available to supplement the 25 man from 2016 and on.

[Ohfan67]

I honestly don't know. Hoosiers and others made some good points in that thread. It does not seem like the O's are doing their utmost to build the minor league system while also winning. But at the same time the O's would not be in first place without DD's aggressive decision to lose the pick for Cruz. The team would have been toast without Cruz IMO.

I think there are a couple of factors that get overlooked. I think all the doom-and-gloom talk about the cliff or whatever is way over-the-top. The O's still have a young core of players that will be them for several more years. Some of the pieces that may leave are not that hard to replace or retainable (Hardy's price, for example, has definitely come down after this year's performance). But the biggest factor is that Peter Angelos is still the owner. He is 85 years old. He has always been in a bit of a "win now" mode and has "gone for it" a couple of times (e.g., Tejada, Lopez, and the 40 million dollar bullpen acquisitions). I think there may be more of a push to win from the top than many realize. I don't think Angelos hired Buck and DD to do a complete rebuild of the minor league system. The O's haven't put proper focus on the minor league system the entire time Angelos has owned the team. I don't think that's because every GM/VP they have had wanted it that way.

[MrOrange82]

Bundy had made 5 starts over a time span of two years until he went to the Carolina league. The Orioles and Buck knew it was going to be just a year to get the arm strength back not a year to help the team. The fans and even some media blew smoke thinking a guy could just jump in and help this team in September IMO. He will be fine with more pitching and should help this team next season.

Not a single one of us can "know" that with certainty. The underlying point is that prospects are prospects (i.e., unproven players who all face substantial obstacles, of many kinds, to reach and succeed in the major leagues). The Orioles don't have many prospects, and so fans' psychological reliance on guys like Bundy is probably higher than it should be. Same thing goes for Harvey, btw...he's a good prospect, but he's not competing for a rotation spot next spring, either.

[bpilktree]

I think they have done a very good job with adding talent to the minor leagues through the draft. We have hit on most all the picks so far except for Hobgood IMO who was a money saving pick. However the main problem i have with making sure this team stays near the top is adding you international talent. Schoop is the only international talent I think we have brought up in 5-10 years and there is not much still down in the minors. They have said it will take time to get the presence down their but it has been about 3 or years and I have still seen the reluctance to sign some of those guys that may cost a bit more signing bonus.

[clutch2113]

I posted this in the Bundy thread before I saw this was moved here.

Listen, I don't think the O's are perfect by any stretch of the imagination. Nor do I think the moves that the team makes shouldn't be examined or analyzed by the fanbase. I am of the opinion though, that we should afford the Front office a little leeway given the overall results of the past few years. In the end we may have "Lost" the Norris trade or it may turn out we "Won" the trade - only time will tell. What we do know is that from a 'projection' standpoint and a 'current value' standpoint we gave up more than we received. Sometimes you have to gamble a little to get a needed or targeted player. Ultimately, the question is: Do you trust this Front office to gamble wisely when the odds (or projections) are not in our favor. Personally, I do trust them. IIRC one of Duquette's stated goals was to make sure that we knew our own players better than other teams did - he shuffled the scouting department and increased the emphasis on scouting our own MiL players. Yes, we are going to take a hit not having any early picks this year and we're still not heavily invested in the international market, but we are on pace to win 90+ game, AND our Farm system was ranked in top 10 in baseball coming in to the year (KLaw #10). That earns you some flexibility in my book.

[Reboulet'sStache]

I understand why they have taken the road they have. They had a good enough team now. Even if you aren't a team that can just be penciled into the playoffs every year, it's difficult to trade away important pieces from a team that is capable of making the playoffs, and once you are in the playoffs, anything can happen.

I personally was in favor of trading Davis and Hardy and Markakis this past off-season, and Wieters whenever he raised his value again after the bad season last year. Everything comes down to Bundy, Gausman, EdRod, and maybe Harvey. Some combination of those guys need to become front end starters. And the O's aren't going to be elite until that happens. If/when that does happen, guys like Davis aren't going to be around for it anyway, and guys like Hardy and Markakis will be out of their prime, probably making more than they should. Better to have sold high, got some young just add water ready type prospects like Myers or Russell to add to the core, then when the core and young pitchers were in place, go out and add whatever few pieces are missing through FA. The O's just seem like a Tier II team right now, that is probably going to have to extend some guys beyond where they should, just to maintain that Tier II status. And even then, it's going to be difficult because you can't extend them all.