It's Time To Bench Chris Davis

[DrungoHazewood]

Absolutely. What is the scientifically calculated (i.e. totally, definitely, not just made up) value for how many wins a replacement level team would get?

I think it's supposed to be 40.

So if you want to have a shot at the playoffs, you need to accrue at least 50 or so WAR which (at fair market value) is at least $250M. Not impossible for some teams actually, but it is for most.

It's subjective, but I think mid-40s is probably reasonable. That's as bad as a real team is ever allowed to get, not counting distant history and the '62 Mets. If you're not the Dodgers or Yanks you can't even approach that payroll.

[MdSooner]

Davis should have benched 2 months ago!

he is a lower 4A player.

[DrungoHazewood]

Davis should have benched 2 months ago!

he is a lower 4A player.

It's not often that (what you describe as) a journeyman minor leaguer has a six-win season in the majors. In fact, he's currently the only player with a six-win season on his resume who also has a career total of less than 10 rWAR. Bill Hall is next on the list, with a 5.8-win 2006 at the age of 26, followed up by 0.3 rWAR the rest of his career.

[Redskins Rick]

It's not often that (what you describe as) a journeyman minor leaguer has a six-win season in the majors. In fact, he's currently the only player with a six-win season on his resume who also has a career total of less than 10 rWAR. Bill Hall is next on the list, with a 5.8-win 2006 at the age of 26, followed up by 0.3 rWAR the rest of his career.

So what is your opinion on this.

Will Chris bounce back next year and be more like his previous two seasons?

[gmelson26]

So what is your opinion on this.

Will Chris bounce back next year and be more like his previous two seasons?

He will bounce back to an extent. Essentially, he cannot do worse. I don't think he's quite this bad.. and I don't think '13 Davis was quite that good either. I think .240/.340/.490 is reasonable, maybe 33HRs 190Ks.

[DrungoHazewood]

Here's another example of someone just totally losing it: George Scott in 1968. His OPS+es from 1966-1970 were 107, 138, 40, 95, 118. He followed up a .303/.373/.465 line in '67 with a .171/.236/.237 line in '68.

You have to consider that '68 was the biggest pitcher's year in the last 95 years or so, but still. His -2.8 rWAR that year is one of the 20 worst on record. He went from a very good 23-year-old coming star, to a .473 OPS. It took a few years but he got it back, actually got MVP votes in six of seven years.

[Scrat1]

Just posting to say that despite how bad he has been, I still love the guy and I'm willing to watch him struggle, just in case he gets on one of his outrageous streaks right when it counts the most.