Chris Davis vs Nelson Cruz

[brianod]

I've read numerous posts recommending we outright Chris Davis to save money to pay for Nick, Nelson, Laroche, Miller, etc. So, I thought I'd compare statistics over the last three years between the two:

Chris Davis .254, .335, .523, 112 hrs, 295 rbi

Nelson Cruz .266, .326, .529, 91 hrs, 274 rbi

Chris Davis is 28 years old and plays above average 1b, passable 3b and of.

Nelson Cruz is 35 years old and plays passable outfield defense but is more suited for dh.

I literally cringe when I hear that we should just give the production of Chris Davis away because he's not worth 10-11 million. Are you kidding me? Who is worth more?

A totally bold move would be to offer Davis the money that Cruz wants. We could extend Davis for 4 years 60 million and go get a replacement DH. Not recommending it because the adderall throws some doubt into the equation but hopefully, this illustrates why we shouldn't consider dumping Davis to afford Cruz.

[Phantom]

Good post. Smart teams buy low and sell high. Now is the perfect time to buy on Davis and let Cruz walk.

[mdbdotcom]

Chris Davis has one season left with the O's (unless he signs an extension). During that season he could:

- Hit like he did in 2013

- Hit like he did in 2014

- Hit somewhere in-between his 2013/2014 production

- Fail another amphetamine test and be suspended for 80 games

I've seen estimates for his 2015 salary of $11-12 million. Given the above scenarios, how confident are you that he will be worth $11-12 million in 2015?

If he's on the team next season, I'm fine with that. But, I wouldn't mind if they replaced him and traded him out of the division for this year's equivalent of Jemile Weeks.

[brianod]

Chris Davis has one season left with the O's (unless he signs an extension). During that season he could:

- Hit like he did in 2013

- Hit like he did in 2014

- Hit somewhere in-between his 2013/2014 production

- Fail another amphetamine test and be suspended for 80 games

I've seen estimates for his 2015 salary of $11-12 million. Given the above scenarios, how confident are you that he will be worth $11-12 million in 2015?

If he's on the team next season, I'm fine with that. But, I wouldn't mind if they replaced him and traded him out of the division for this year's equivalent of Jemile Weeks.

I expect Davis to continue to produce at his 3 year average which is 254 335 523 with 37 hrs and 98 rbis. Maybe a little more, maybe a little less. For that, 11 million is a big time bargain.

As for the adderall, there are no guarantees in life for any of these players. But, I'd rather depend on a 28 year old staying healthy than a 35 yr old.

[StottyByNature]

I expect Davis to continue to produce at his 3 year average which is 254 335 523 with 37 hrs and 98 rbis. Maybe a little more, maybe a little less. For that, 11 million is a big time bargain.

As for the adderall, there are no guarantees in life for any of these players. But, I'd rather depend on a 28 year old staying healthy than a 35 yr old.

I think Davis is worth the gamble for just one year, I am hoping for a big year in his contract year. However, it is a bit intellectually lazy to compare the last three years and draw your conclusion, because it encompasses an historic season by Davis surrounded by two average seasons. The big question remains: was 2013 an aberration due to the amphetamines or was 2014 a down year due to other factors? I think Cruz is the safer bet for a good 2015, but obviously there is a risk of how many years you give him. Davis is worth the flyer for 2015 because the risk is not as great. However, I don't think it is as simple as you outline.

[weams]

Chris Davis has one season left with the O's (unless he signs an extension). During that season he could:

- Hit like he did in 2013

- Hit like he did in 2014

- Hit somewhere in-between his 2013/2014 production

- Fail another amphetamine test and be suspended for 80 games

I've seen estimates for his 2015 salary of $11-12 million. Given the above scenarios, how confident are you that he will be worth $11-12 million in 2015?

If he's on the team next season, I'm fine with that. But, I wouldn't mind if they replaced him and traded him out of the division for this year's equivalent of Jemile Weeks.

I am pretty comfortable that Davis can accumulate 2 WAR in 2015.

[O's_first]

I expect Davis to continue to produce at his 3 year average which is 254 335 523 with 37 hrs and 98 rbis. Maybe a little more, maybe a little less. For that, 11 million is a big time bargain.

As for the adderall, there are no guarantees in life for any of these players. But, I'd rather depend on a 28 year old staying healthy than a 35 yr old.

I completely agree. We would all be going crazy to sign a free agent like Chris Davis to a one year deal at $11 or 12 million.

[brianod]

I think Davis is worth the gamble for just one year, I am hoping for a big year in his contract year. However, it is a bit intellectually lazy to compare the last three years and draw your conclusion, because it encompasses an historic season by Davis surrounded by two average seasons. The big question remains: was 2013 an aberration due to the amphetamines or was 2014 a down year due to other factors? I think Cruz is the safer bet for a good 2015, but obviously there is a risk of how many years you give him. Davis is worth the flyer for 2015 because the risk is not as great. However, I don't think it is as simple as you outline.

If you can't go by the past 3 years performance, what can you go by? Yes, it includes a huge 2013 season but it also includes a bad 2014 season. As for Cruz, it includes last years 40 hr gem as well as two lesser years. Basically, I use it as an illustration of how those people cavalierly recommending cutting Davis are, well, a tad off the mark. Cruz may be better than Davis next year, but it's a virtual certainty that Davis will be worth more from here on out.

[weams]

If you can't go by the past 3 years performance, what can you go by? Yes, it includes a huge 2013 season but it also includes a bad 2014 season. As for Cruz, it includes last years 40 hr gem as well as two lesser years. Basically, I use it as an illustration of how those people cavalierly recommending cutting Davis are, well, a tad off the mark. Cruz may be better than Davis next year, but it's a virtual certainty that Davis will be worth more from here on out.

I think if either were available for a three year, 45 million dollar deal that we would sign them. Since neither are, I think the nod would have to go to Davis. As a one year investment only. We already offered Nelson 15.3 for one year. Davis is worth 11.8. Even if he does not earn it. It is a no brainer.

[spiritof66]

The only factor that clouds this decision for me is last year's team demonstrated ability, with the emergence of Steve Pearce, to win when Chris was injured, in one of his slumps or suspended. But losing Davis and relying on Pearce, while spending Chris' expected salary elsewhere, would present its own risks, so in the end I'm clear that Davis should be retained. I would like to think that the suspension will induce Chris to sign at or below the lower end of his predicted range in order to avoid an arbitration that would confront him with arguments about how he let down the team in September and October. But even if he doesn't, he's very likely to be worth what he's paid in 2015.

Since the Cruz-Davis comparison has been raised, here's one difference between them: Cruz's willingness and ability to stroke the ball up the middle or to RF when the situation called for it -- a surprise to me. If I were Chris Davis or one of the others who have lost a lot of hits to defensive shifts, I would be spending a lot of time this off-season trying, with a hitting coach I respected, to hit against the shift. I have no idea whether any of that is happening (except that a couple of Red Sox fans told me that Ortiz has ruled out any such attempt to adjust).

[weams]

The only factor that clouds this decision for me is last year's team demonstrated ability, with the emergence of Steve Pearce, to win when Chris was injured, in one of his slumps or suspended. But losing Davis and relying on Pearce, while spending Chris' expected salary elsewhere, would present its own risks, so in the end I'm clear that Davis should be retained. I would like to think that the suspension will induce Chris to sign at or below the lower end of his predicted range in order to avoid an arbitration that would confront him with arguments about how he let down the team in September and October. But even if he doesn't, he's very likely to be worth what he's paid in 2015.

Since the Cruz-Davis comparison has been raised, here's one difference between them: Cruz's willingness and ability to stroke the ball up the middle or to RF when the situation called for it -- a surprise to me. If I were Chris Davis or one of the others who have lost a lot of hits to defensive shifts, I would be spending a lot of time this off-season trying, with a hitting coach I respected, to hit against the shift. I have no idea whether any of that is happening (except that a couple of Red Sox fans told me that Ortiz has ruled out any such attempt to adjust).

As an upcoming Free Agent, I am certain that Chris Davis is not concerned about how many singles he hits in 2015. If that makes him Ortiz, I guess it does.

[srock]

My friend with his masters in stats would bepounding a table and screaming: variance! variance!

Because a three year average means little in the face of massive variance year to year in the numbers.

Really. Davis and Cruz are both pretty risky ways to spent lots of money.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[weams]

My friend with his masters in stats would bepounding a table and screaming: variance! variance!

Because a three year average means little in the face of massive variance year to year in the numbers.

Really. Davis and Cruz are both pretty risky ways to spent lots of money.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

As are all Free Agents. Especially those with Pick attachment.

[wildcard]

I would neither release, nor trade, nor extend Davis. Sign him to a one year deal and see what happens.

I think the O's will wait Cruz out. If he gets the money he wants and signs elsewhere, so be it. If he gets to January and is still looking for a home, the O's might be interested in a reasonable two year deal with a vesting option.

[Enjoy Terror]

I literally cringe when I hear that we should just give the production of Chris Davis away because he's not worth 10-11 million.

Chris Davis .196 .300, .404, 25HR, 72RBI

Nelson Cruz .271 .333, .525, 40HR, 108RBI

You completely ignored the fact that Chris Davis reverted to Texas-era Chris Davis in 2014, while Nelson Cruz has remained very steady over the last four years, and even missed 150 plate appearances for his suspension last year.

The future "production of Chris Davis" is a Sasquatch-sized myth; you want to give him elite 1B money after he completely wet the bed this year? You've whitewashed four and a half years of Chris Davis to focus on post-ASB 2012 and 2013, and then get surprised when in 2014 the guy only knows how to hit homeruns and below the Mendoza line. He was doing that for years! Why not bring back Mark Reynolds?