J Upton...(Traded to SD)

[srock]

14.5M this year for a one year rental and we have to give up something to get him. Doesn't feel like a DD move.

I'd love to have Upton in the Orioles OF, but the Orioles minor league system isn't deep enough to make this happen.

LF/RF/DH is most likely to be some combination of de Aza, Pearce, Lough, Alvarez, maybe Urrutia...and probably 'Pearce the 2nd' whom Duquette has yet to pluck from obscurity.

[SteveO]

The idea of possibly re-signing Upton can't enter into the thinking of whether you trade Harvey for 1 year of Upton. If you want, you can enter the bidding for Upton when he is a free agent next winter, whether he is on your team in 2015 or not. Upton is a 1 year rental. You don't trade a prospect like Harvey for that, IMO.

This^^^^

The people speculating this look at Bundy, Harvey and KG and figure DD will panic and put a deal with one of them in it to get Upton.

That would be a horrible idea and mistake IMO. If he can get it done without any of those 3 in it then I am fine with it. If he cant then sign Aoki, Rasmus or whomever and if we really like Upton, enter the sweepstakes next year.

[SteveO]

I'd love to have Upton in the Orioles OF, but the Orioles minor league system isn't deep enough to make this happen.

LF/RF/DH is most likely to be some combination of de Aza, Pearce, Lough, Alvarez, maybe Urrutia...and probably 'Pearce the 2nd' whom Duquette has yet to pluck from obscurity.

I think DD will sign a couple of guys. Someone along the lines of Morse, Rasmus or Aoki. A couple of those guys along with a healthy MW and Manny would do an awful lot to offset these two losses IMO

[Reboulet'sStache]

Upton doesn't have a lot of value on his contract. He will probably be somewhere between a 3 and 3.5 WAR player, so lets say 3.3 WAR. At 14.5, he's already being paid to be 2+. So you're talking, what, less than 6 million-ish of value? Plus the QO offer you can give him after the season. But Harvey's value I'd put at 20 million on the low end. No way I trade that for Upton. I have no problem trading Harvey, but we better be getting more value back than that.

[Camden_yardbird]

I'd rather have Moss if we are trying to replace offense.

[Es4M11]

The odds of all three of Gausman, Bundy, and Harvey panning out and turning into top end rotation starters is very small. IMO, Harvey is the least likely to do it. Harvey had some very concerning tightness in his forearm last year (ala Bundy in early 2013), I think it is a very real possibility that we could see Harvey end up needing Tommy John. If that's the case, let's use him to get something that could potentially help us to win a World Series next year. You're not going to get something for nothing, ask the Cardinals...

[baltimoreO's22]

If the Braves reach a deal with Upton on a extension, I would give up one of the young controllable arms for him.

Other than that, they can take on tier 2 prospects. If we trade for him, we could have 4 additional first round picks, plus the competitive balance pick.

QO to Upton, Wieters, Davis and Chen, pending none re-sign with us. It would give us at least a baseline for a rebuild.

[Can_of_corn]

The odds of all three of Gausman, Bundy, and Harvey panning out and turning into top end rotation starters is very small. IMO, Harvey is the least likely to do it. Harvey had some very concerning tightness in his forearm last year (ala Bundy in early 2013), I think it is a very real possibility that we could see Harvey end up needing Tommy John. If that's the case, let's use him to get something that could potentially help us to win a World Series next year. You're not going to get something for nothing, ask the Cardinals...

Funny how folks on this board think TJ surgery is a career ender for an O's prospect.

This isn't labrum surgery folks.

If Harvey needs to get cut it just pushs his arrival date back by about 16 months.

[SteveO]

If the Braves reach a deal with Upton on a extension' date=' I would give up one of the young controllable arms for him. [/b']

Other than that, they can take on tier 2 prospects. If we trade for him, we could have 4 additional first round picks, plus the competitive balance pick.

QO to Upton, Wieters, Davis and Chen, pending none re-sign with us. It would give us at least a baseline for a rebuild.

I doubt they would trade him if they could get him inked.

[jcroemer]

I see a lot of great points for pursuing a trade for Upton both pro and con.

Bear in mind, also, the trend that players before better in "walk" years and an up year for Upton looks pretty good in the box scores. I also think he fits the profile for the Orioles, maybe - a guy who needs to prove something to get a big payday.

[Es4M11]

Funny how folks on this board think TJ surgery is a career ender for an O's prospect.

This isn't labrum surgery folks.

If Harvey needs to get cut it just pushs his arrival date back by about 16 months.

TJ certainly doesn't bode well for a pitcher's future success. And that is not even considering Harvey is far from a sure thing when perfectly healthy.

[Can_of_corn]

I see a lot of great points for pursuing a trade for Upton both pro and con.

Bear in mind, also, the trend that players before better in "walk" years and an up year for Upton looks pretty good in the box scores. I also think he fits the profile for the Orioles, maybe - a guy who needs to prove something to get a big payday.

Huh?

Do you mean perform better?

Someone said this a couple days ago then couldn't prove it actually exists.

Can you prove it actually exists?

I have heard it for years but figured folks were only remembering players that did well and not someone like Nick who didn't get a bump at all over his career numbers.

[Reboulet'sStache]

The odds of all three of Gausman, Bundy, and Harvey panning out and turning into top end rotation starters is very small. IMO, Harvey is the least likely to do it. Harvey had some very concerning tightness in his forearm last year (ala Bundy in early 2013), I think it is a very real possibility that we could see Harvey end up needing Tommy John. If that's the case, let's use him to get something that could potentially help us to win a World Series next year. You're not going to get something for nothing, ask the Cardinals...

But the uncertainty of the prospects are worked into the market value of the prospects. Harvey being an uncertainty is why he is only worth 20 to 35 million in value, not 150 to 200 million in value. You don't sell low on the 25 to 35 that you have in your pocket. You don't sell your stock in Apple for below it's market price, simply because there is no guarantee that 4 years from now it will be worth that market price. You sell it for what it's worth today. I have no problem trading Harvey, Bundy, and every other prospect, but we got to get value in return. Especially the Orioles, because it's not like we can undersell our prospects, and then go pay market prices on the FA market.

[TouchemAll]

I say trade for Upton sign Lester and call it a day......

Man I like this

[Es4M11]

But the uncertainty of the prospects are worked into the market value of the prospects. Harvey being an uncertainty is why he is only worth 20 to 35 million in value' date=' not 150 to 200 million in value. You don't sell low on the 25 to 35 that you have in your pocket. You don't sell your stock in Apple for below it's market price, simply because there is no guarantee that 4 years from now it will be worth that market price. You sell it for what it's worth today. I have no problem trading Harvey, Bundy, and every other prospect, but we got to get value in return. Especially the Orioles, because it's not like we can undersell our prospects, and then go pay market prices on the FA market.[/quote']

I agree with pretty much everything you say. I guess where you and I disagree is on the actual value of Harvey. The Cardinals had to give up Shelby, a guy who has a major league track record, for Heyward. Sometimes you have to gamble...