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Duquette: "mutual interest" in a contract extension with Tillman


Frobby

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So far the only talk I have seen of 5 guaranteed years is here on the OH. Dan just said a contract extension.

It's all a matter of risk and price. Yes, the O's take on more risk by signing Tillman to a long term deal now, as opposed to a year from now. The reason to do it is if Tillman is giving a sufficient discount off his FA market value to make the risk worthwhile. The closer to free agency he gets, the less of a discount he can be expected to give.

My view is, the risk with Tillman isn't bad. While you're right that an injury can happen to a pitcher at any time, I think it has been shown that some ages are riskier than others. Among major league pitchers, about 2/3 of all TJ surgeries occur before age 26. http://www.hardballtimes.com/an-analysis-of-available-tommy-john-surgery-data/ When you look at how Tillman has been handled, he didn't pitch an overwhelming number of innings at a young age, and even now, while he is the closest thing to an innings eater that we have, he hasn't reached 210 innings in a season. He's a big, strapping guy who rarely seems to be pitching at max effort. His mechanics don't seem to put undue strain on his arm. So, while nobody is injury proof, I think Tillman's odds of staying healthy are above average. Just my opinion there.

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It's all a matter of risk and price. Yes, the O's take on more risk by signing Tillman to a long term deal now, as opposed to a year from now. The reason to do it is if Tillman is giving a sufficient discount off his FA market value to make the risk worthwhile. The closer to free agency he gets, the less of a discount he can be expected to give.

My view is, the risk with Tillman isn't bad. While you're right that an injury can happen to a pitcher at any time, I think it has been shown that some ages are riskier than others. Among major league pitchers, about 2/3 of all TJ surgeries occur before age 26. http://www.hardballtimes.com/an-analysis-of-available-tommy-john-surgery-data/ When you look at how Tillman has been handled, he didn't pitch an overwhelming number of innings at a young age, and even now, while he is the closest thing to an innings eater that we have, he hasn't reached 210 innings in a season. He's a big, strapping guy who rarely seems to be pitching at max effort. His mechanics don't seem to put undue strain on his arm. So, while nobody is injury proof, I think Tillman's odds of staying healthy are above average. Just my opinion there.

Pretty good take.

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But he's not on the market. His salary is artificially suppressed for the next three seasons. You'd be committing to paying him 20 MM per year for the last two under that contract. That's way too much.

He's expected to get 5 million ish this year....how about

6.5, 7.5, 8.5, 9, 10, 10.5, 12.5

7 years 64.5

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It's all a matter of risk and price. Yes, the O's take on more risk by signing Tillman to a long term deal now, as opposed to a year from now. The reason to do it is if Tillman is giving a sufficient discount off his FA market value to make the risk worthwhile. The closer to free agency he gets, the less of a discount he can be expected to give.

My view is, the risk with Tillman isn't bad. While you're right that an injury can happen to a pitcher at any time, I think it has been shown that some ages are riskier than others. Among major league pitchers, about 2/3 of all TJ surgeries occur before age 26. http://www.hardballtimes.com/an-analysis-of-available-tommy-john-surgery-data/ When you look at how Tillman has been handled, he didn't pitch an overwhelming number of innings at a young age, and even now, while he is the closest thing to an innings eater that we have, he hasn't reached 210 innings in a season. He's a big, strapping guy who rarely seems to be pitching at max effort. His mechanics don't seem to put undue strain on his arm. So, while nobody is injury proof, I think Tillman's odds of staying healthy are above average. Just my opinion there.

But I think you will agree that no matter who the pitcher is he can have arm problems - elbow or shoulder. For that reason 5 year contracts that get up to the 15M mark are risky. When was the last time the O's signed a pitcher to a 5 year contract? And how did that work out?

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You also have to keep in mind that in order for the O's to assume the risk of a five year guaranteed contract it is assumed that Tillman will be giving up some potential earnings.

I think paying him 15M a year for his FA years represents that. Certainly a lot more reasonable than what Johnny is proposing.

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But I think you will agree that no matter who the pitcher is he can have arm problems - elbow or shoulder. For that reason 5 year contracts that get up to the 15M mark are risky. When was the last time the O's signed a pitcher to a 5 year contract? And how did that work out?

Not well. But that's the way it goes sometime. If the market says pitchers of Tillman's age and caliber get 5 year deals and you're not willing to do it, then you won't get pitchers of Tillman's age and caliber. The O's stunk for a long time and signing a pitcher for five years would not have been a good use of resources in those circumstances. The calculus is different when you're a contending team. That said, I go back to my point: it depends on price. Everyone, even you, has a price point where a five-year deal would make sense. You'd sign Tillman today for 5/$25 mm, right? 5/$60 mm, apparently you wouldn't. Somewhere between $25 mm and $60 mm there's a place where you'd be on the fence.

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I expect any deal to be substantially back loaded. That could easily push the last year or two higher then 15M.

What type of deal do you think Tillman would command if he was a free agent right now? I'm thinking probably something like 5/$70 mm or 6/$85 mm. Current AAV leaders:

Kershaw $30.7 mm (7 yrs)

Lester $25.8 mm (6)

Verlander $25.7 mm (7)

Hernandez $25.0 mm (7)

Greinke $24.5 mm (6)

Sabathia $24.4 mm (5)

Hammels $24.0 (6)

Lee $24.0 mm (5)

Tanaka $22.1 mm (7)

Cain $21.3 mm (6)

Wainwright $19.5 mm (5)

Lincecum $17.5 mm (2)

Weaver $17 mm (5)

Sanchez $16 mm (5)

Wilson $15.5 mm (5)

Buehrle $14.5 mm (4)

Santana $13.8 mm (4)

Danks $13.0 mm (5)

Jackson $13.0 mm (4)

Most of these guys (except a few at the bottom) are better than Tillman, but there has been some inflation since a lot of these deals were signed.

Earlier in the thread I suggested $5/60 mm or 6/$76 mm for Tillman under his current circumstances, but I've reconsidered now that I've looked at this set of pitchers. Probably more like 5/$53 mm or 6/$67 mm.

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What type of deal do you think Tillman would command if he was a free agent right now? I'm thinking probably something like 5/$70 mm or 6/$85 mm. Current AAV leaders:

Kershaw $30.7 mm (7 yrs)

Lester $25.8 mm (6)

Verlander $25.7 mm (7)

Hernandez $25.0 mm (7)

Greinke $24.5 mm (6)

Sabathia $24.4 mm (5)

Hammels $24.0 (6)

Lee $24.0 mm (5)

Tanaka $22.1 mm (7)

Cain $21.3 mm (6)

Wainwright $19.5 mm (5)

Lincecum $17.5 mm (2)

Weaver $17 mm (5)

Sanchez $16 mm (5)

Wilson $15.5 mm (5)

Buehrle $14.5 mm (4)

Santana $13.8 mm (4)

Danks $13.0 mm (5)

Jackson $13.0 mm (4)

Most of these guys (except a few at the bottom) are better than Tillman, but there has been some inflation since a lot of these deals were signed.

Earlier in the thread I suggested $5/60 mm or 6/$76 mm for Tillman under his current circumstances, but I've reconsidered now that I've looked at this set of pitchers. Probably more like 5/$53 mm or 6/$67 mm.

I am closer to those numbers myself.

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