Duquette: "mutual interest" in a contract extension with Tillman

[Frobby]

Per Roch: http://m.masn.mobi/school-of-roch/2015/01/mutual-interest-in-tillman-extension-and-other-notes.html

Would you be interested in locking up Tillman long term at this point, and if so, on what terms?

[weams]

Per Roch: http://m.masn.mobi/school-of-roch/2015/01/mutual-interest-in-tillman-extension-and-other-notes.html

Would you be interested in locking up Tillman long term at this point, and if so, on what terms?

Of course. I would be thrilled. I am sure they will find common ground and whatever it is I support it.

[Just Regular]

I think most execs feel it was a bad contract, but it is out there, Homer Bailey. Every pitcher about as good as him, and I'd put Tillman in that group, will look to that benchmark.

6 yrs/$105 mm

2014 - $9mm for arb3 year

2015 - $10mm

2016 - $18mm

2017 - $19mm

2018 - $21mm

2019 - $23mm

2020 - $5mm buyout (or $25mm mutual option)

Bailey born 5/3/1986, Tillman born 4/15/1988 (I thought they'd be closer in age - this is a reminder to me just how young Tillman still is, a mark in his favor).

I think Bailey signed this last offseason. Through 2013, he had accumulated 6 career rWAR, and was coming off 2.5 and 3.2 rWAR seasons in which he established himself as a front line starter.

Through 2014, Tillman has accumulated 8.7 career, and is coming off 4.4 and 2.4 seasons.

I agree Tillman's the next Oriole in line for a big extension - the Adam Jones contract for the pitchers. An extension this offseason for Tillman would include his arb1 and arb2 season, so that'll make the absolute dollars less.

Cincinnati obviously structured Bailey, and some other free agent contracts salaries lower through 2015, before bumps. They could easily be the next Phillies.

In using the Bailey template for Tillman, I won't play backloading games:

2015 - arb 1 - $8mm

2016 - arb 2 - $12mm

2017 - arb 3 - $16mm

Bailey got 5/96 guaranteed for free agent seasons, I'll set Tillman FA seasons at 20 on average, calling inflation vs. the club taking on risk by paying Tillman earlier in his service clock than the Reds did Bailey a wash.

2018 - $19mm

2019 - $20mm

2020 - $21mm

Given Tillman's youth advantage, the 6 year term would likely be an outcome in the club's favor. So....6/96?

Maybe I'm not giving the club enough premium for taking the plunge two years earlier, but maybe I'm not giving Tillman enough credit for being better than Bailey. I'd imagine those the two biggest negotiating points between the parties.

[33rdst]

Yes. Five years 75 milion. Gives him another big payday after this contract ends.

[weams]

For those who are not aware, Chris is arbitration eligible for the first time this year. He has never made any real money and has gotten engaged/married. He is not eligible to be a free agent until the offseason after 2017. He is projected to make 5.4 million this season. Assuming he stays healthy and produces like he has, the would mean 8 million and 12 million dollar salaries for the remaining arb years. so 25 million for three. Or a couple less or more. so if you bought out two more seasons at 12 a piece that would be a five year 49 million dollar deal. I would assume because of risk involved the Oriole offer would be in the neighborhood of five years and 39 million. with room to negotiate between those two pillars.

[LoyalBirdFan]

I believe Tillman is a keeper.

6/78 to 6/96

I might want to wait one more year to try and sign him long term.

[weams]

For those who are not aware, Chris is arbitration eligible for the first time this year. He has never made any real money and has gotten engaged/married. He is not eligible to be a free agent until the offseason after 2017. He is projected to make 5.4 million this season. Assuming he stays healthy and produces like he has, the would mean 8 million and 12 million dollar salaries for the remaining arb years. so 25 million for three. Or a couple less or more. so if you bought out two more seasons at 12 a piece that would be a five year 49 million dollar deal. I would assume because of risk involved the Oriole offer would be in the neighborhood of five years and 39 million. with room to negotiate between those two pillars.

I think the standard arb progress supports my 25 million for the next three seasons. It's all about how many years you want to secure beyond that and how much over Ubaldo you want to pay him. I would be happy with two years considering the Orioles assuming long term pitching risk, But as a big Chris Tillman fan, I could see going longer. I still can't see a contract of more than 6/60 being on the table.

[waroriole]

Offer 5/55. Buys out 2 FA years and assures Chris of big time money without worrying about injury. I wouldn't go any longer though.

[weams]

Offer 5/55. Buys out 2 FA years and assures Chris of big time money without worrying about injury. I wouldn't go any longer though.

I am with you on this and I don't think the money needs to be that high to make Chris happy.

[Frobby]

I think the first two guesses (6/$96 mm and 5/$75 mm) are too high because Tillman won't do that well in the Arb years. I think the last guess (5/$49mm) is too low because Tillman will do better than that in the FA years. Put me down for 5/$60 mm or 6/$76 mm, something like that.

[weams]

I think the first two guesses (6/$96 mm and 5/$75 mm) are too high because Tillman won't do that well in the Arb years. I think the last guess (5/$49mm) is too low because Tillman will do better than that in the FA years. Put me down for 5/$60 mm or 6/$76 mm, something like that.

How much do you think the arb year payments will be? And to guarantee the security starting out his family life. I think making ten million this year would be a huge benefit to Chris.

[wildcard]

I'm not really interested in a 5 year deal for any pitcher. Maybe, a three year deal with two one year options.

[weams]

I'm not really interested in a 5 year deal for any pitcher. Maybe, a three year deal with two one year options.

No pitcher signs that deal. So then just let him walk. Or pay him 100 million when it becomes time. No pitcher sells his arb years and then gives team options. None.

[Frobby]

I think the standard arb progress supports my 25 million for the next three seasons. It's all about how many years you want to secure beyond that and how much over Ubaldo you want to pay him. I would be happy with two years considering the Orioles assuming long term pitching risk, But as a big Chris Tillman fan, I could see going longer. I still can't see a contract of more than 6/60 being on the table.

I think you have to factor in inflation. By the time Chris gets to his FA years, it's been four years since the Ubaldo deal so the cost of signing a Ubaldo-quality pitcher will have gone up. And even putting Ubaldo's performance last year to one side, I like Chris better because he gets deeper into games.

[Frobby]

How much do you think the arb year payments will be? And to guarantee the security starting out his family life. I think making ten million this year would be a huge benefit to Chris.

I'm assuming something like:

Arb 1 $5 mm

Arb 2 $8 mm

Arb 3 $12 mm

FA 1 $16 mm

FA 2 $18 mm

FA 3 $18 mm