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Duquette: "mutual interest" in a contract extension with Tillman


Frobby

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Is this a joke or do you really think it was a true thing? I had heard there was some resentment of Jeremy because he was not only smart, but acted that way and didn't really enjoy juvenile stuff. You're closer than me. Was it really this way?

What about Mussina? He was smarter than Jeremy and also very studious/serious.

Well, it is a piece of folk lore. I'll say that. And Guthrie never had much run support. But I do not believe Tejada, Mora, Huff, and crew actually laid down on Guthrie's starts

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Is this a joke or do you really think it was a true thing? I had heard there was some resentment of Jeremy because he was not only smart, but acted that way and didn't really enjoy juvenile stuff. You're closer than me. Was it really this way?

What about Mussina? He was smarter than Jeremy and also very studious/serious.

Well, it is a piece of folk lore. I'll say that. And Guthrie never had much run support. But I do not believe Tejada, Mora, Huff, and crew actually laid down on Guthrie's starts

I don't see the vast majority of baseball players intentionally laying down. Between their ego and the financial implications there is a lot of motivation to do well.

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Given that he is a graduate of Stanford University, it isn’t too surprising that Jeremy Guthrie has been one of the more intelligent interviewees on the Orioles in recent history. In formal and informal settings, Guthrie is always interesting, well thought-out and diplomatic – traits that served him well as the O’s player representative. Few pitchers in baseball that have pitched as well as Guthrie over the past few years have as little (in terms of wins) to show for it. Over the past couple of years, the lack of run support in games Jeremy started became somewhat of a running joke around Baltimore. Guthrie always took the high road, never blamed teammates for the lack of run support, and was always quick to remind reporters that team wins, not individual wins, are what matters. Even when his teammates let him down in the most dramatic fashions imaginable, Guthrie never resorted to finger pointing or self-pity.

But when he went to Colorado, he became awful. Horrid.

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My belief is that as an extreme flyball pitcher, at that time in Camden Yards, he made his own bad luck against the top pitcher from other squads. Especially the third time through a lineup.

It didn't help that he was closer to a 3 or 4 pitching against the other team's ace.

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But he's not on the market. His salary is artificially suppressed for the next three seasons. You'd be committing to paying him 20 MM per year for the last two under that contract. That's way too much.

But that's gonna be the going rate for a pitcher like him in those years.

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Simply... this is what I would do if I was PA and DD. 6 to 7 years (option) for $68-$88m.

Over the arbs year.. $20m which will be pretty close to what he gets anyways if he regresses at any point between now and FA or it will also limit our costs if he keeps getting better (IP pitched and his FIP is falling). Basically $4m, $6m, $10m during Arb years. During FA years.. $14m, $16m, $18m, so $48m for 3 years. Which right now seems pretty damn close to what he would get on Free Market today.

Then if the O's want to do an Option. Option year would be $20m with a buy out of $2.5m.

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It didn't help that he was closer to a 3 or 4 pitching against the other team's ace.

Teams' no. 1 pitchers don't face off that often, because schedules don't line up the same way. Guthrie faced the opposing no.1 more than random selection would suggest, but probably no more than 1/3 of the time.

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I don't see the sense in committing long term dollars to a fragile commodity like a pitcher when you have him for three more years.

So what are you saying? Would you never extend a pitcher before his FA eligibility, or is three years just too soon for you? If the latter, when is the ideal time in your opinion?

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I think the first two guesses (6/$96 mm and 5/$75 mm) are too high because Tillman won't do that well in the Arb years. I think the last guess (5/$49mm) is too low because Tillman will do better than that in the FA years. Put me down for 5/$60 mm or 6/$76 mm, something like that.

5 years and around 55 to 65 million seems like the right range.

If letting Cruz and Markakis walk enables DD to lock down Tillman, I am more than good with that

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Tillman is good but he's not a stud. If he were, I might consider extending him now. So, yes, I would consider extending a pitcher this far from FA but it depends on the pitcher. In Tillman's case, I would wait until after the 2016 season. I realize that by that point he might be unsignable. I just don't see the sense on guaranteeing the next 3 years or more when the team is guaranteed the next 3 years. I don't see the sense in assuming additional risk on a pitcher who is not a franchise pitcher.

This is about where I'm at too.

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Tillman is good but he's not a stud. If he were, I might consider extending him now. So, yes, I would consider extending a pitcher this far from FA but it depends on the pitcher. In Tillman's case, I would wait until after the 2016 season. I realize that by that point he might be unsignable. I just don't see the sense on guaranteeing the next 3 years or more when the team is guaranteed the next 3 years. I don't see the sense in assuming additional risk on a pitcher who is not a franchise pitcher.

But he's still young and studly. 90% of time I agree with you on years but I think Tillman is more the exception. A very decent pitcher and not prone to injury at all. A longer extension (6 years) will probably save us money.

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