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Duquette: "mutual interest" in a contract extension with Tillman


Frobby

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But he's still young and studly. 90% of time I agree with you on years but I think Tillman is more the exception. A very decent pitcher and not prone to injury at all. A longer extension (6 years) will probably save us money.

I think these decisions are very tricky. You can save a lot of money by locking a guy up early, or you can lose a lot, especially if a pitcher gets hurt. I'm sure Dan has all kinds of data to tell him when the best time to do a deal is, how much of a discount to protect against the injury risk is necessary, etc.

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That's fine. I'd sign him to a one year deal and work out a multi year deal next year. There is a ton of risk in signing pitchers to 5 year deals. The risk of injury at some point is high.

MLBTR did a article on an extension for Tillman and after considering a lot of approaches end up about where I am.

Unless Tillman is willing to take a substantial discount, the Orioles? best route might be to take him year-to-year.

MLBTR also drops their projection on Tillman 2015 salary from 5.4m to 4.35M

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/01/extension-candidate-chris-tillman.html

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This was a timely article. Not to sure about how arbitration works in terms of player valuation. I guess part of the process involves comparisons to comparable players. What comes to mind for me is how much value will Tillman produce over the term of his contract. Over the past three years he has averaged 2.8 WAR. So 55-60 million over five years, while being equitable, would give the O's the surplus in production they would seek for giving a contract of this length. Since we're talking age 26-30 seasons I wouldn't expect a problem with regression due to age. Yeah so I would look to extend him.

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This was a timely article. Not to sure about how arbitration works in terms of player valuation. I guess part of the process involves comparisons to comparable players. What comes to mind for me is how much value will Tillman produce over the term of his contract. Over the past three years he has averaged 2.8 WAR. So 55-60 million over five years, while being equitable, would give the O's the surplus in production they would seek for giving a contract of this length. Since we're talking age 26-30 seasons I wouldn't expect a problem with regression due to age. Yeah so I would look to extend him.

Tillman will play 2015 at 27 years old. He turns 27 on April 15th.

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If Tillman were to make $4.35MM next year, that would still set him up to clear $20MM in his arbitration seasons, depending on his development. If Tillman's contract were to match the Cueto and Santana deals in structure (four years plus an option), that would put him between $32MM and $40MM. That figure seems low, given more recent extensions for pitchers with slightly less service time, like Chris Sale (who had between two and three years of service time when he got $32MM guaranteed for five years, plus two options) and Derek Holland (who had roughly the same service time as Sale and got $28.5MM guaranteed for a five-year deal with two options). Julio Teheran signed for six years and $32.4MM last offseason despite having just over a year of big league service.

Of course, Tillman and the Orioles could aim longer. For five years guaranteed, Tillman could perhaps ask for the five years and $55MM given to Matt Harrison, who had a year more service at the time of his extension than Tillman has now. Phil Hughes' recent deal gave up three years of free agency eligibility at $14MM per season, and a five-year deal for Tillman would give up two. Given what Tillman is set to make in arbitration, a $55MM total, or perhaps a bit less, for the next five years makes sense. Alternately, the two sides could strike a two- or three-year deal, although that would likely be done purely on Tillman's arbitration projections and probably wouldn't contain any options.

MLBTRADERUMORs

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I think these decisions are very tricky. You can save a lot of money by locking a guy up early, or you can lose a lot, especially if a pitcher gets hurt. I'm sure Dan has all kinds of data to tell him when the best time to do a deal is, how much of a discount to protect against the injury risk is necessary, etc.

Orioles will have an insurance policy.

Unless Tillman is going to sign a extension for a friendly price "team discount" (Adam Jones, JJ Hardy, etc.) .. I don't see it happening. Thats the Oriole way.

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Orioles will have an insurance policy.

Unless Tillman is going to sign a extension for a friendly price "team discount" (Adam Jones, JJ Hardy, etc.) .. I don't see it happening. Thats the Oriole way.

I think that's how they should approach it. The defense makes our pitchers look better than they are. No reason to spend big money on Tillman when he's likely not worth big money in reality. He can be replaced when he gets expensive, IMO.

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I think that's how they should approach it. The defense makes our pitchers look better than they are. No reason to spend big money on Tillman when he's likely not worth big money in reality. He can be replaced when he gets expensive, IMO.

I think the year-to-year route is the best way.

Bundy and Gausman should be the front of our rotation by 2016.

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I think the year-to-year route is the best way.

Bundy and Gausman should be the front of our rotation by 2016.

Gausman will hopefully be at the front of the rotation in 2016. It will probably take a few years for Bundy to reach that level. He is targeted for about 120 innings this year. In 2016 he will probably be inning limited to around 150 innings.

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http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/01/extension-candidate-chris-tillman.html

Of course, Tillman and the Orioles could aim longer. For five years guaranteed, Tillman could perhaps ask for the five years and $55MM given to Matt Harrison, who had a year more service at the time of his extension than Tillman has now. Phil Hughes? recent deal gave up three years of free agency eligibility at $14MM per season, and a five-year deal for Tillman would give up two. Given what Tillman is set to make in arbitration, a $55MM total, or perhaps a bit less, for the next five years makes sense. Alternately, the two sides could strike a two- or three-year deal, although that would likely be done purely on Tillman?s arbitration projections and probably wouldn?t contain any options.

Given the money Tillman is already set to make in arbitration, it would be hard to blame him for aiming high in extension discussions. The question is whether the Orioles would want to pay $50MM or more for a pitcher with so many sabermetric question marks. If a large percentage of Tillman?s success is due to the Orioles? defense, it doesn?t make sense for the Orioles to pay a premium for him going forward. Unless Tillman is willing to take a substantial discount, the Orioles? best route might be to take him year-to-year.

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I think the time is right to explore extending. I also agree with the MLBTRADE article that says without a discount waiting is fine. This is a classic opportunity for both sides to minimize risk. Tillman could lock up his projected arb numbers and give up a year or two of FA while protecting against injury. O's could lock in some long term value and have a few extra years.

But without a discount, I'd rather wait.

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Yes, the old "sabermetric question marks" and Orioles keeping players only if they are "willing to take a substantial discount." What else is new? We will be a team that increasingly will rise and fall ONLY on the quality of our draft and farm system players because it will be the increasingly rare player that we are able to sign any type of extension. Hardy is a vanishing breed of player who will be about the only exception any time soon. And those players, I believe will only be the very early players like Machado or Gausman that they can perhaps persuade to take a deal very early in their cycle before they get anywhere close to free agency.

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