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Duquette: "mutual interest" in a contract extension with Tillman


Frobby

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I think you have to factor in inflation. By the time Chris gets to his FA years, it's been four years since the Ubaldo deal so the cost of signing a Ubaldo-quality pitcher will have gone up. And even putting Ubaldo's performance last year to one side, I like Chris better because he gets deeper into games.

Oh sure. I agree. I just meant if signing him now, you don't factor inflation. and you pay the full measure for arb as if he will be healthy and good for three years and you get a strong discount on the FA ones. I think Chris is the far superior pitcher, even if he strikes few out.

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No pitcher signs that deal. So then just let him walk. Or pay him 100 million when it becomes time. No pitcher sells his arb years and then gives team options. None.

That's fine. I'd sign him to a one year deal and work out a multi year deal next year. There is a ton of risk in signing pitchers to 5 year deals. The risk of injury at some point is high.

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I believe you are very strong on those FA years. But you may be right. Certainly never more than what you have suggested.

Like I say, inflation. Chen will likely get $13 mm/yr next offseason, and I'd rather have Tillman. But if you are right that we can get him for less than I said, then do it!

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For reference, here are some arb1 numbers from 2014 on players where the club is going year to year.

Dayan Viciedo - $2.8

Greg Holland - $4.7

Eric Hosmer - $3.6

Trevor Plouffe - $2.4

Ivan Nova - $3.3

Jeremy Hellickson - $3.6

Jason Castro - $2.5

Ernesto Frieri - $3.8 (60 saves! in 2012-2013)

Josh Reddick - $2.7

Michael Saunders - $2.3

Mitch Moreland - $2.6

Alexi Ogando - $2.6

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By the way, I'm interested to see what Shields gets because I think he's a pretty good comp for Tillman -- more of a strong no. 2 than a true no. 1, but durable and an asset to any staff. I'd certainly say Shields is better, but they're similar.

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The key here is youth and health. Tillman has both. 6 years is a stretch for this organization but I would do something like:

Arb 1 $5 mm

Arb 2 $8 mm

Arb 3 $11 mm

FA 1 $14 mm

FA 2 $17 mm

FA 3 $19 mm

So 6/74 that escalates at ~ $3 mil per year. Big contract that says we appreciate him in Baltimore but does not overvalue him. Gets us his prime years but still sets him up for a second big contract from some else who can have his 32-36 years. It's good to be CT. :D

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I think a five year deal is easily justified when you are talking about ages 27-31.

Elbow and shoulder injuries can happen at any age and wipe out a year or two. Look at what happen to Britton. I like tieing pitchers up for three years. That's why I would wait a year on Chris.

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The key here is youth and health. Tillman has both. 6 years is a stretch for this organization but I would do something like:

Arb 1 $5 mm

Arb 2 $8 mm

Arb 3 $11 mm

FA 1 $14 mm

FA 2 $17 mm

FA 3 $19 mm

So 6/74 that escalates at ~ $3 mil per year. Big contract that says we appreciate him in Baltimore but does not overvalue him. Gets us his prime years but still sets him up for a second big contract from some else who can have his 32-36 years. It's good to be CT. :D

Yes, i think this is pretty close. Although I might prefer the 5 year/55 option.

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For those who are not aware, Chris is arbitration eligible for the first time this year. He has never made any real money and has gotten engaged/married. He is not eligible to be a free agent until the offseason after 2017. He is projected to make 5.4 million this season. Assuming he stays healthy and produces like he has, the would mean 8 million and 12 million dollar salaries for the remaining arb years. so 25 million for three. Or a couple less or more. so if you bought out two more seasons at 12 a piece that would be a five year 49 million dollar deal. I would assume because of risk involved the Oriole offer would be in the neighborhood of five years and 39 million. with room to negotiate between those two pillars.

Poor guy. It's hard to have a life when you get a 680k signing bonus a month after you graduate high school and you only make 1.5 mil over the last three years. :)

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Well, I'd prefer the 5-6 year extension but one option I haven't seen discussed is if they just buyout the first couple of years of arbitration. It would be similar to the deal that Mat Latos (2/$11.5 mil) got when he was with the Reds. Chris is more valuable and remember wins count in arbitration so his 29-13 record over the two years is coming into any discussion at some point.

A short buyout gives the team certainty and the player a chance to increase his value for a long term extension. It could be a starting point for talks.

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Well, I'd prefer the 5-6 year extension but one option I haven't seen discussed is if they just buyout the first couple of years of arbitration. It would be similar to the deal that Mat Latos (2/$11.5 mil) got when he was with the Reds. Chris is more valuable and remember wins count in arbitration so his 29-13 record over the two years is coming into any discussion at some point.

A short buyout gives the team certainty and the player a chance to increase his value for a long term extension. It could be a starting point for talks.

Not according to basically any meaningful metric.

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