The 2015 OPS Projections Thread

[BohKnowsBmore]

Yeah, and considering we lost Cruz and Markakis, a little dropoff should be expected. But even with that, the offense still looks pretty decent on paper.

Maybe. Could be largely offset by a bounce back from Davis, healthy wieters and machado, and progression by schoop.

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[Frobby]

Now adding in PECOTA, BaseballHQ (Ron Shandler's site) and our own El Gordo. I've also lowered the PA for "other" to 575 to make the team total come to 6150, which is closer to reality than my initial assumption. Anyone else who wants to throw their player predictions into the ring, I will add them next time I update this.

Player	 PA	ZiPS	Steamer	CAIRO	R-champ	PECOTA	BballHQ	ElGordoDavis	600	0.821	0.813	0.822	0.826	0.797	0.787	0.861Schoop	550	0.685	0.639	0.633	0.619	0.637	0.637	0.679Flah'ty	275	0.668	0.655	0.665	0.645	0.659	0.651	0.701Hardy	550	0.681	0.691	0.711	0.703	0.677	0.682	0.719Machado	600	0.771	0.755	0.764	0.753	0.726	0.774	0.781Wieters	500	0.749	0.729	0.745	0.729	0.713	0.762	0.759Joseph	200	0.652	0.616	0.636	0.614	0.667	0.642	0.681Snider	400	0.719	0.773	0.706	0.719	0.702	0.783	0.739Pearce	450	0.818	0.816	0.849	0.869	0.771	0.819	0.791Lough	200	0.661	0.674	0.683	0.684	0.657	0.716	0.729Jones	600	0.791	0.775	0.805	0.796	0.763	0.775	0.801Young	250	0.698	0.712	0.742	0.733	0.711	0.727	0.759De Aza	400	0.716	0.722	0.728	0.703	0.701	0.713	0.741Other	575	0.651	0.651	0.651	0.651	0.651	0.651	0.651TOTALS	6150	0.731	0.725	0.733	0.727	0.708	0.729	0.748

And yes, PECOTA really does seem to hate us.

[Beef Supreme]

Now adding in PECOTA, BaseballHQ (Ron Shandler's site) and our own El Gordo. I've also lowered the PA for "other" to 575 to make the team total come to 6150, which is closer to reality than my initial assumption. Anyone else who wants to throw their player predictions into the ring, I will add them next time I update this.

Player	 PA	ZiPS	Steamer	CAIRO	R-champ	PECOTA	BballHQ	ElGordoDavis	600	0.821	0.813	0.822	0.826	0.797	0.787	0.861Schoop	550	0.685	0.639	0.633	0.619	0.637	0.637	0.679Flah'ty	275	0.668	0.655	0.665	0.645	0.659	0.651	0.701Hardy	550	0.681	0.691	0.711	0.703	0.677	0.682	0.719Machado	600	0.771	0.755	0.764	0.753	0.726	0.774	0.781Wieters	500	0.749	0.729	0.745	0.729	0.713	0.762	0.759Joseph	200	0.652	0.616	0.636	0.614	0.667	0.642	0.681Snider	400	0.719	0.773	0.706	0.719	0.702	0.783	0.739Pearce	450	0.818	0.816	0.849	0.869	0.771	0.819	0.791Lough	200	0.661	0.674	0.683	0.684	0.657	0.716	0.729Jones	600	0.791	0.775	0.805	0.796	0.763	0.775	0.801Young	250	0.698	0.712	0.742	0.733	0.711	0.727	0.759De Aza	400	0.716	0.722	0.728	0.703	0.701	0.713	0.741Other	575	0.651	0.651	0.651	0.651	0.651	0.651	0.651TOTALS	6150	0.731	0.725	0.733	0.727	0.708	0.729	0.748

And yes, PECOTA really does seem to hate us.

Fun stuff, Frobby!

My gut says that Pearce will settle back into more of a lefty-killer role. The PAs will be closer to 350. And if Lough gets 200 PAs with a .729 OPS, I'll eat El Gordo's hat. :-)

[Beef Supreme]

I would project Jones' PAs at 675.

[Frobby]

I would project Jones' PAs at 675.

I think there are several guys who will probably exceed 600 PA, which is the most I gave anyone. That's kind of my way of saying, I know someone's going to get hurt, I just don't know who.

[sportsfan8703]

Looks like a balanced offense to me. We don't have to rely on someone having a breakout/unexpected big season to be good. Getting Snider helps balance out the risk of if Pearce can't keep up last season's numbers. Really we just need healthy seasons from Davis, Machado and MW. A breakout year from a guy like Lough, Schoop or even De Aza would just be a bonus.

[Babypowder]

Fun stuff, Frobby!

My gut says that Pearce will settle back into more of a lefty-killer role. The PAs will be closer to 350. And if Lough gets 200 PAs with a .729 OPS, I'll eat El Gordo's hat. :-)

Why is that such a reach? It's basically what he did in 2013 and not far at all from 2014.

[Beef Supreme]

Why is that such a reach? It's basically what he did in 2013 and not far at all from 2014.

Dead pull singles hitter. Lough defines AAAA player to me. I'm wondering whether he gets DFA'd the day Davis returns.

[Babypowder]

Dead pull singles hitter. Lough defines AAAA player to me. I'm wondering whether he gets DFA'd the day Davis returns.

He had a .138 ISO last year, which puts him with about the same extra base pop as Delmon Young (.140).

Lough is a 4+ win player in his 2 years in MLB in only part time play. He's clearly major league quality. If anything, he should play more.

[Can_of_corn]

Dead pull singles hitter. Lough defines AAAA player to me. I'm wondering whether he gets DFA'd the day Davis returns.

You don't DFA a price controlled quality defensive outfielder to make room for a first baseman in his walk year.

[weams]

Why is that such a reach? It's basically what he did in 2013 and not far at all from 2014.

I'd have to agree with you on this.

[weams]

Dead pull singles hitter. Lough defines AAAA player to me. I'm wondering whether he gets DFA'd the day Davis returns.

Be the dumbest thing that the team could do. Dumber than putting Ubaldo in the pen.

[Can_of_corn]

Be the dumbest thing that the team could do. Dumber than putting Ubaldo in the pen.

They could sign Britton to an extension.

[Babypowder]

Be the dumbest thing that the team could do. Dumber than putting Ubaldo in the pen.

Agreed, you don't give up 4 years of Lough. He has a role on this team and is valuable and cheap. He would have a larger role if it were up to me. He's pretty clearly a better player than De Aza in my opinion.

[25 Nuggets]

You don't DFA a price controlled quality defensive outfielder to make room for a first baseman in his walk year.

I completely agree.