Sun: Cubs Offer Ceden, Gallagher, Veal and maybe a 4th player - For Roberts

[dkdc]

And WRT the age thing, PECOTA has DeRosa's collapse rate at 33%, and Roberts' at 20%. That surely doesn't meet my definition of a much larger risk.

Would you disagree that Ichiro Suzuki has a 'much larger' chance of getting a base hit in any given at bat than Mark Bellhorn?

[davearm]

DeRosa could easily fall to a 750ish OPS guy this year....BRob should still be around 800ish. I don't expect any decline in BRob yet...I would be surprised to not see some decline in DeRosa.

And what would the point be? How about comparing apples to apples?

I get your point when you say in some scenarios...Well great..In some scenarios, Mora is better than ARam...Would you like to have that discussion too?

Again, it goes back to one simple thing...The Cubs are, without question, a better team with BRob than they are with DeRosa. That can not be denied.

You just completely contradicted yourself.

First you acknowledge that there are scenarios where DeRosa is just as productive as Roberts, then next you go into this "without question" stuff.

Nobody is denying that the expectation is that the Cubs would be better with Roberts. My point is that things don't have to stray too far from expectations before that's no longer the case.

So yes, of course Roberts is an upgrade. Nobody's denying that. And I'm all for upgrading.

But obviously the size of the upgrade influences the price you'd be willing to pay. And right now I'm seeing the price being above the value.

Frankly I'm not sure what the debate is over, since you've agreed with me on this point many times in the past.

[Pedro Cerrano]

DeRosa could easily fall to a 750ish OPS guy this year....BRob should still be around 800ish. I don't expect any decline in BRob yet...I would be surprised to not see some decline in DeRosa.

And what would the point be? How about comparing apples to apples?

I get your point when you say in some scenarios...Well great..In some scenarios, Mora is better than ARam...Would you like to have that discussion too?

Again, it goes back to one simple thing...The Cubs are, without question, a better team with BRob than they are with DeRosa. That can not be denied.

I don't believe Dave is denying that. I think he is questioning how much better and thus, how much the Cubs should be willing to give up for him.

[Sports Guy]

You just completely contradicted yourself.

First you acknowledge that there are scenarios where DeRosa is just as productive as Roberts, then next you go into this "without question" stuff.

Nobody is denying that the expectation is that the Cubs would be better with Roberts. My point, using the PECOTA EqA's as proof, is that things don't have to stray too far from expectations before that's no longer the case.

So yes, of course Roberts is an upgrade. Nobody's denying that And I'm all for upgrading.

But obviously the size of the upgrade influences the price you'd be willing to pay. And right now I'm seeing the price being above the value.

Frankly I'm not sure what the debate is over, since you've agreed with me on this point many times in the past.

To me, there is no debate...The Cubs should probably get BRob...if it costs them Gallagher, Veal/Ceda/Colvin, Cedeno and EPat, they shouldn't even hesitate.

DeRosa as a UTI guy and BRob as the starter makes the Cubs a lot better.

Now, should the Cubs be trading Pie and others for Roberts? Probably not but that is only because of their CF options...If they were to get Crisp in a trade, then yes, they should trade Pie in a deal for BRob if that is what it took.

Sure, DeRosa could be better...Again, Mora could be better than ARam....Trachsel could be better than Zambrano this year as well...You can always find numbers and scenarios where one guy can be better than the other.

You want to go with the odds.

[Sports Guy]

I don't believe Dave is denying that. I think he is questioning how much better and thus, how much the Cubs should be willing to give up for him.

I bet with BRob's upgrade over DeRosa and DeRosa's upgrade over all the other back ups, this trade makes them at least 5 wins better.

[davearm]

I bet with BRob's upgrade over DeRosa and DeRosa's upgrade over all the other back ups, this trade makes them at least 5 wins better.

Just tested your "5 wins" theory using Baseball Musings' Lineup Analysis tool, and plugging in eqOPS and eqSLG numbers out of PECOTA.

As-is, the Cubs' core lineup* figures to score 5.035 runs per game, or 816 runs in a 162-game schedule.

Now take DeRosa out and plug in Roberts, and the numbers go up to 5.093 RPG, or 825 for the year.

Apply the Palmer rule of 10 runs = 1 win, and so far adding Roberts has netted the Cubs just less than one win.

Now you say we haven't taken account of Roberts' SBs. That's correct. The lineup tool doesn't model SBs and CSs explicitly, but we can fudge the OBP and SLG numbers to try and capture this element (by adding SBs to the numerator of SLG, and subtracting CS from the numerator of OBP).

Plugging in the adjusted OBP and SLG values leaves the DeRosa lineup virtually unchanged : 5.043 per game, and 817 total. No surprise there.

The adjusted Roberts lineup improves to 5.15 per game, and 834 total. Now the differential in the two lineups is 17 runs, or a little under 2 wins.

What about the bench upgrade we get with DeRosa?

Well using the 5.15 RPG Roberts lineup for 130 games, and the 5.043 RPG DeRosa lineup for 32 games nets 831 runs.

Let's compare that against a season with 130 DeRosa lineups, and 32 with Cedeno in there in place of DeRosa. The Cedeno lineup is good for 4.954 RPG. That gives us 814 runs for the season at our 130/32 split. Again a difference of 17 as compared to the Roberts scenario (831-814). Still under 2 wins gained.

Looks like I'm missing at least 3 wins here SG.

*The order I used is: Soriano DeRosa Lee Ramirez Fukudome Soto Pie Theriot.

[Sports Guy]

Just tested your "5 wins" theory using Baseball Musings' Lineup Analysis tool, and plugging in eqOPS and eqSLG numbers out of PECOTA.

As-is, the Cubs' core lineup* figures to score 5.035 runs per game, or 816 runs in a 162-game schedule.

Now take DeRosa out and plug in Roberts, and the numbers go up to 5.093 RPG, or 825 for the year.

Apply the Palmer rule of 10 runs = 1 win, and so far adding Roberts has netted the Cubs just less than one win.

Now you say we haven't taken account of Roberts' SBs. That's correct. The lineup tool doesn't model SBs and CSs explicitly, but we can fudge the OBP and SLG numbers to try and capture this element (by adding SBs to the numerator of SLG, and subtracting CS from the numerator of OBP).

Plugging in the adjusted OBP and SLG values leaves the DeRosa lineup virtually unchanged : 5.043 per game, and 817 total. No surprise there.

The adjusted Roberts lineup improves to 5.15 per game, and 834 total. Now the differential in the two lineups is 17 runs, or a little under 2 wins.

What about the bench upgrade we get with DeRosa?

Well using the 5.15 RPG Roberts lineup for 130 games, and the 5.043 RPG DeRosa lineup for 32 games nets 831 runs.

Let's compare that against a season with 130 DeRosa lineups, and 32 with Cedeno in there in place of DeRosa. The Cedeno lineup is good for 4.954 RPG. That gives us 814 runs for the season at our 130/32 split. Again a difference of 17 as compared to the Roberts scenario (831-814). Still under 2 wins gained.

Looks like I'm missing at least 3 wins here SG.

*The order I used is: Soriano DeRosa Lee Ramirez Fukudome Soto Pie Theriot.

WARP3 says BRob is usually 2-4 wins better.

I would think DeRosa is better than any other back up you can put out there in RF, second, first and third..Correct?

So, i would think the bench is upgraded some in terms of wins.

[Number5]

Just tested your "5 wins" theory using Baseball Musings' Lineup Analysis tool, and plugging in eqOPS and eqSLG numbers out of PECOTA.

As-is, the Cubs' core lineup* figures to score 5.035 runs per game, or 816 runs in a 162-game schedule.

Now take DeRosa out and plug in Roberts, and the numbers go up to 5.093 RPG, or 825 for the year.

Apply the Palmer rule of 10 runs = 1 win, and so far adding Roberts has netted the Cubs just less than one win.

Now you say we haven't taken account of Roberts' SBs. That's correct. The lineup tool doesn't model SBs and CSs explicitly, but we can fudge the OBP and SLG numbers to try and capture this element (by adding SBs to the numerator of SLG, and subtracting CS from the numerator of OBP).

Plugging in the adjusted OBP and SLG values leaves the DeRosa lineup virtually unchanged : 5.043 per game, and 817 total. No surprise there.

The adjusted Roberts lineup improves to 5.15 per game, and 834 total. Now the differential in the two lineups is 17 runs, or a little under 2 wins.

What about the bench upgrade we get with DeRosa?

Well using the 5.15 RPG Roberts lineup for 130 games, and the 5.043 RPG DeRosa lineup for 32 games nets 831 runs.

Let's compare that against a season with 130 DeRosa lineups, and 32 with Cedeno in there in place of DeRosa. The Cedeno lineup is good for 4.954 RPG. That gives us 814 runs for the season at our 130/32 split. Again a difference of 17 as compared to the Roberts scenario (831-814). Still under 2 wins gained.

Looks like I'm missing at least 3 wins here SG.

*The order I used is: Soriano DeRosa Lee Ramirez Fukudome Soto Pie Theriot.

That explains it. Try putting Roberts 1st in the order, Fukudome 2nd, and Soriano 3,4, or 5. That's how I'm thinking you will see the greater differences show up and where I believe that you will see why Lou and Hendry want to do this.

[dkdc]

I'm with Dave on this one. Roberts makes a 2-3 win difference for the Cubs.

You can't just look at the WARP differences since it is a counting stat and Roberts has had way more playing time.

Of course, 2-3 wins is nothing to sneeze at. The NL wild card race is going to be a dogfight between the Cubs, Braves, Phillies, Dodgers, Rockies and Padres.

Adding Roberts may even give the Cubs a shot at challenging the Brewers for the division title.

[Number5]

I'm with Dave on this one. Roberts makes a 2-3 win difference for the Cubs.

You can't just look at the WARP differences since it is a counting stat and Roberts has had way more playing time.

Of course, 2-3 wins is nothing to sneeze at. The NL wild card race is going to be a dogfight between the Cubs, Braves, Phillies, Dodgers, Rockies and Padres.

Cubs in the wild card race, but no other team from their division? Who do you have winning the Cubs division?

EDIT: I was typing as you edited your post.

[davearm]

WARP3 says BRob is usually 2-4 wins better.

I would think DeRosa is better than any other back up you can put out there in RF, second, first and third..Correct?

So, i would think the bench is upgraded some in terms of wins.

Roberts isn't 2-4 wins better if you control for playing time. Remember WARP3 is a counting stat.

[HeatherC12]

Cubs in the wild card race, but no other team from their division? Who do you have winning the Cubs division?

The Brewers, Reds, and Cardinals all could be players in the NL Central if things fall right for their teams. The Cubs are the favorites but anything can happen during a long season. I don't really see any of those teams (except maybe Milwaukee) getting enough wins to contend for the wild card though.

[zff4]

Adding Roberts may even give the Cubs a shot at challenging the Brewers for the division title.

...and I'm convinced that losing him, without better value than the Cubs are offering, will give us a shot at challenging the Rays for the dubious distinction they've held for so long.

God, I feel like Churchill endlessly flapping his gums about how stupid the Bedard trade will be.

[davearm]

That explains it. Try putting Roberts 1st in the order, Fukudome 2nd, and Soriano 3,4, or 5. That's how I'm thinking you will see the greater differences show up and where I believe that you will see why Lou and Hendry want to do this.

The model says the optimal lineup has Fukudome leading off in any scenario.

[Number5]

The model says the optimal lineup has Fukudome leading off in any scenario.

Really? That surprises me, given that his numbers require the most supposition. What are the results of Roberts 1 and Soriano 5? I'm thinking Soriano's numbers jump in the middle of the lineup and Roberts' increase hitting 1st over 2nd.