Sun: Cubs Offer Ceden, Gallagher, Veal and maybe a 4th player - For Roberts

[Ballgame64]

You don't have to convince me Roberts is a better player.Mark D has only been a everyday player for 2 years.Roberts is a very good in the 1 hole and that's what the Cubs need and that's why Hendry will get it done.Mark D is more valuble coming off the bench and playing other positions which only makes the Cubs stronger.

I won't debate whether or not the Cubs are better with Roberts. But I still don't believe anyone should assume he will be automatically put in the leadoff spot. People quote stats constantly but seem to totally ignore the fact that over their careers, when leading off an inning, Soriano and Roberts have similar OBP and because of Soriano's superior power he has a much better OPS. Once again, these stats are based on leading off an inning.

As Dave has accurately portrayed a couple of times, Soriano is at his best when batting #1 in the lineup. Everyone assumes that his power would be better served if he was used down in the order, but for whatever reason, he is not the same hitter when he bats lower in the order. If the trade ever occurs, it wouldn't surpise me if Roberts hits 2nd followed by Lee, Ramirez and Fukudome.

[ugadawg38]

I won't debate whether or not the Cubs are better with Roberts. But I still don't believe anyone should assume he will be automatically put in the leadoff spot. People quote stats constantly but seem to totally ignore the fact that over their careers, when leading off an inning, Soriano and Roberts have similar OBP and because of Soriano's superior power he has a much better OPS. Once again, these stats are based on leading off an inning.

As Dave has accurately portrayed a couple of times, Soriano is at his best when batting #1 in the lineup. Everyone assumes that his power would be better served if he was used down in the order, but for whatever reason, he is not the same hitter when he bats lower in the order. If the trade ever occurs, it wouldn't surpise me if Roberts hits 2nd followed by Lee, Ramirez and Fukudome.

I agree with this post in its entirety. I think the lineup looks one of two ways if the Cubs were to acquire him. Soriano,Roberts,Lee,Ramirez,Fuk,Soto,Pie,Theriot

Roberts,Fuk,Soriano,Lee,Ramirez,Soto,Pie,Theriot

[Harry Carry]

I won't debate whether or not the Cubs are better with Roberts. But I still don't believe anyone should assume he will be automatically put in the leadoff spot. People quote stats constantly but seem to totally ignore the fact that over their careers, when leading off an inning, Soriano and Roberts have similar OBP and because of Soriano's superior power he has a much better OPS. Once again, these stats are based on leading off an inning.

As Dave has accurately portrayed a couple of times, Soriano is at his best when batting #1 in the lineup. Everyone assumes that his power would be better served if he was used down in the order, but for whatever reason, he is not the same hitter when he bats lower in the order. If the trade ever occurs, it wouldn't surpise me if Roberts hits 2nd followed by Lee, Ramirez and Fukudome.

It all depends on if Sorianos legs are healthy.Can he steal a base.If he can't you move him down were he could drive in more runs.

[davearm]

Who would you trade for Roberts ?

I'd do something like Gallagher, Patterson, Veal.

If Lou has given up on Cedeno, then I'd gladly put him in the deal, either with or in place of Patterson. However if Lou is still hopeful on Cedeno and open to using him as the everyday SS if Theriot flops, then I'm reluctant to give him up.

Swap Fontenot for Patterson, and the O's can have a fourth, but a lesser guy.

If taking Payton back is required to push one of the above offers through, then I grit my teeth and do it.

[davearm]

I agree with this post in its entirety. I think the lineup looks one of two ways if the Cubs were to acquire him. Soriano,Roberts,Lee,Ramirez,Fuk,Soto,Pie,Theriot

Roberts,Fuk,Soriano,Lee,Ramirez,Soto,Pie,Theriot

Try this on for size:

Roberts L

Lee R

Fukudome L

Soriano R

Ramirez R

Soto R

Pie L

Theriot R

Flip/flop Soriano and Ramirez if you want, but the idea is to get L/R balance at the top by hitting Lee in front of Fukudome, while still getting both guys' OBP ahead of AS and AR.

[Harry Carry]

I'd do something like Gallagher, Patterson, Veal.

If Lou has given up on Cedeno, then I'd gladly put him in the deal, either with or in place of Patterson. However if Lou is still hopeful on Cedeno and open to using him as the everyday SS if Theriot flops, then I'm reluctant to give him up.

Swap Fontenot for Patterson, and the O's can have a fourth, but a lesser guy.

If taking Payton back is required to push one of the above offers through, then I grit my teeth and do it.

I think the Orioles do like Patterson more then Cedeno.Bruce Levine of Espn radio Chicago said today that all the scouts have really been impressed with Patterson including the Oriole top scout Dave Engle.

[Harry Carry]

Try this on for size:

Roberts L

Lee R

Fukudome L

Soriano R

Ramirez R

Soto R

Pie L

Theriot R

Flip/flop Soriano and Ramirez if you want, but the idea is to get L/R balance at the top by hitting Lee in front of Fukudome, while still getting both guys' OBP ahead of AS and AR.

That's a preety good lineup if you ask me.I think Hendry and Lou are thinking the same thing.

[Cubsfan]

That's why Hendry wants Roberts to improve the Cubs chances to win the World Series.We have enough to win the division right now but that is not good enough.After 100 years it is about time to do what ever it takes to win the World Series.If that means trading away your best suspects then do it.Roberts leading off with K fuke hitting 2 then you get to the middle of the order that is a preety scarry lineup.

I don't think that will happen because Lou will want to seperate the lefties.

[nyjimbo]

Try this on for size:

Roberts L

Lee R

Fukudome L

Soriano R

Ramirez R

Soto R

Pie L

Theriot R

Flip/flop Soriano and Ramirez if you want, but the idea is to get L/R balance at the top by hitting Lee in front of Fukudome, while still getting both guys' OBP ahead of AS and AR.

Dave, if I was a Cub fan I would be very excited about that lineup along with fairly solid pitching. With Derosa as a solid IF backup and either Murton or Payton as 4th OF the 100 year dryspell could be over.

[davearm]

Dave, if I was a Cub fan I would be very excited about that lineup along with fairly solid pitching. With Derosa as a solid IF backup and either Murton or Payton as 4th OF the 100 year dryspell could be over.

The Cubs were better in 2004, with Lee Sosa Alou Ramirez Barrett Nomar Walker in the lineup, and Wood Prior Zambrano Maddux Clement in the rotation. That team didn't even make the playoffs.

Meanwhile a junk team like the 2006 Cards can win the WS.

That's why I take all of this WS talk, and Roberts puts you over the top, ending the dryspell blah blah with a mine full of salt. No matter how well a team is constructed, baseball is still a huge crapshoot.

[CubbieMD]

Dave, if I was a Cub fan I would be very excited about that lineup along with fairly solid pitching. With Derosa as a solid IF backup and either Murton or Payton as 4th OF the 100 year dryspell could be over.

The Cubs would still need another solid arm in the rotation to pull off anything spectacular in the post-season.

If we were to get Roberts, that would be a major coup for us. DeRosa becomes an issue. He's one of our best hitters and we'd need to find him at-bats. There might be some kind of a SS controversy, as DeRosa is clearly a better hitter, and makes us for a more formidable line up.

Personally, I'd like for us to get Crisp as well. Roberts and Crisp at the top of the line-up would wreak havoc on the bases for other teams.

We'll see what happens. The story of the Cubs this year, regardless of Roberts heading this way, will be starting pitching. If we're in this thing at the deadline, I look to Hendry to have to work some magic to get another solid starter for the closing stretch, and what a difficult closing stretch it will be for us.

If you look at Cubs starters, outside of Zambrano, we're not very good. Lilly-ok. Hill-skilled, but erratic. Lieber-whatever. Dempster-Who knows? Marquis-Yeah, right.

[nyjimbo]

The Cubs would still need another solid arm in the rotation to pull off anything spectacular in the post-season.

If we were to get Roberts, that would be a major coup for us. DeRosa becomes an issue. He's one of our best hitters and we'd need to find him at-bats. There might be some kind of a SS controversy, as DeRosa is clearly a better hitter, and makes us for a more formidable line up.

Personally, I'd like for us to get Crisp as well. Roberts and Crisp at the top of the line-up would wreak havoc on the bases for other teams.

We'll see what happens. The story of the Cubs this year, regardless of Roberts heading this way, will be starting pitching. If we're in this thing at the deadline, I look to Hendry to have to work some magic to get another solid starter for the closing stretch, and what a difficult closing stretch it will be for us.

If you look at Cubs starters, outside of Zambrano, we're not very good. Lilly-ok. Hill-skilled, but erratic. Lieber-whatever. Dempster-Who knows? Marquis-Yeah, right.

Where does that leave Pie? Does that make Murton or Payton a 5th OF?

[Sports Guy]

HUH?

Citing what DeRosa has actually done in WARP3 terms over the last two years is "looking at best case scenario?"

And in the lineup tool, I used DeRosa's PECOTA equivalent OBP and SLG numbers for 2008. Those represent the weighted mean of the various percentile figures the model kicks out, adjusted for league and park, etc. What do you think I should have used instead, to be more objective?

You just magically think that over 600 ab's, DeRosa isn't going to have a drop off despite the fact that he is 33, never had over 530 at bats and wears down as the season goes on.

You throw out your normalized chart and your lineup model but no way can those take into account his age, lack of ab's, etc.....

They are just going to project out what he has done in his career and project it over 600 at bats.

Never once have you acknowledged these things.

You assume the best for DeRosa and assume decline for BRob.

If your objective is to find scenarios where DeRosa can be better, then fine..You did it. Good for you!

I can do the same with Mora and ARam or Zambrano and Trachsel...Should I? Maybe that would make the discussion more fair?

As for your post about me using the counting stats, sorry but that's the way it is. I am using WARP1, which is the best for a single season..>WARP3, which is best for historical purposes.

BRob's EQA is better.

BRob's RC/27 was 6.55 last year...3rd best in the majors...DeRosa's was 5.44.

In 2006, DeRosa had a 5.68, BRob 5.16.

If you look at a 3 year stretch for BRob(making it fair because of the injury in 2006) and a 2 year stretch for DeRosa(making it fair since he has been an everday player):

BRob has a better bb/ab ratio....8.2 for BRob...10 for DeRosa.

BRob has a better 2b/Ab ratio....14.4 for BRob....15 for DeRosa.(BRob in a tough doubles park as well)

BRob has the slight edge in HR/Ab but its close.

BRob has overall a better XBH/AB rate.

And of course, BRob is way ahead in steals.

Those aren't counting stats. Those are ratios that show BRob to be better.

Now, if you use the counting stats like WARP, you see him being a few wins better. Counting stat or not, i believe this to be true because DeRosa has NEVER shown that he can do it over 550-600 at bats.

Plus, if you want to play this game...How about we drop BRob's at bats to like 575...Take the remaining 50 at bats or so out of there and have those at bats be against lefties, where he has struggled....Now, also give him some more rest...Wouldn't surprise me to see his OPS in the 820-830 range and his WARP numbers even higher.

Then, on top of that, let's put BRob in Chicago...Take him out of the better league and the better division...His numbers figure to go up by doing that as well.

So, please, somewhere..show me some kind of stat that shows DeRosa is within a few games of BRob...Not some projected out stat that doesn't take into account age, production in the second half, how he will do with another 100 at bats or stuff like that. Not something that you say, well 70% of DeRosa is better than 50% of BRob. Something real!

With DeRosa's ability to play everywhere and give players a rest(which is something you liked and wanted before Dave), this makes the Cubs a much better team.

The only way DeRosa has ever been better is when BRob was hurt...And while you poo poo that injury, it is obvous to eveyone else who knows how to read a stat that BRob's power was hurt by the elbow injury and thus, drove his numbers down.

[davearm]

FYI, I normalized WARP to 600 PA's.

You know how much I had to adjust DeRosa's numbers to get there? By 28 PAs one year, and by 26 the other year.

That's like 5 or 6 games' worth of PAs!!! Do you seriously think DeRosa is going to completely fall apart if he's asked to play an extra ballgame every month?!?!

We should expect such a minimal increase in playing time to have absolutely zero impact on his production.

You keep harping on this over and over but you fail to realize just how much of a nonissue it is. It's twentysomething PAs! Not a hundred. Not two hundred. Two dozen.

And by the way if you want fair, then do what I did, and include all five years in which Roberts was an everyday player. Cutting off your analysis with his career year is disingenuous and and exposes a blatantly obvious bias. Don't try and play that off as fair. We're not so stupid that we can't see right through that nonsense.

[Sports Guy]

You know how much I had to adjust DeRosa's numbers to get there? By 28 PAs one year, and by 26 the other year.

That's like 5 or 6 games' worth of PAs!!! Do you seriously think DeRosa is going to completely fall apart if he's asked to play an extra ballgame every month?!?!

DeRosa has to actually bat another 80-100 times...That is 20-25 more games...Yes, i could see a 25+ point drop in OPS if he did that.

EDIT: Nevermind...I see the PA/Ab difference.

And by the way if you want fair, then do what I did, and include all five years in which Roberts was an everyday player. Cutting off your analysis with his career year is disingenuous and and exposes a blatantly obvious bias. Don't try and play that off as fair. We're not so stupid that we can't see right through that nonsense.

Oh please....This is the most ridiculous thing you have ever said and that is saying a lot.

You want us to take into account what he did in 2003?

Ok, well Trachsel was very good in the early 2000s....I think we should trade him for Rich Hill....That is very fair.

BTW, if you want to look at the stats over careers...DeRosa drew a walk 13.05 Ab's in his career...Last year, it was 8.65 at bats.