Sun: Cubs Offer Ceden, Gallagher, Veal and maybe a 4th player - For Roberts

[Sports Guy]

LOL, you still don't get it with the counting stats (WARP1, WARP3).

How in the world do you expect to be taken seriously when you completely ignore the glaring flaw in your analysis, even after it's been pointed out repeatedly?

And using your own rate stats (EqA) for the last two years, we see Roberts was better one year, and DeRosa was better one year.

Dave, i have acknowledged you counting stats theory...However, WARP1 adjust for a full season and BRob has the edge.

And you continue to ignore the BRob injury of 2006...You can do that but you continue to look foolish when you do.

BTW, BRob normally has a better OBP, OPS, more doubles, more steals and similar homers...Walks are usually an edge to him as well.

We can keep this up...BRob is clearly better.

DeRosa has never even been viewed as an everyday player until recently and he still hasn't gotten 550+ at bats.

You want to just expand his stats out over 600 at bats and think everything will be fine. You don't acknowledge downside at all(of course, you do for BRob...pretty much the usual way you argue).

I continue to say this and it still rings true...The Cubs are better team with BRob than without and Sweet Lou and Hendry agree with that.

So you, owl and all you other little Cubs friends can continue to cry about this but it doesn't change the fact that your team looks at things the way the rest of us do.

[Sports Guy]

And you keep ignoring how many AB's DeRosa is good for and that we DON'T KNOW what he'd do over the course of a full season. What's the difference? You're both crunching #'s to back up your beliefs. You love chucking stones when you live in a glass house.

Yep!

Dave is only looking at best case scenario for DeRosa.

Still waiting for him to acknowledge the post about how Mora can be better than ARam....Not surprising that he skipped over that one since it was the same argument he used for DeRosa/BRob.

[davearm]

Dave, i have acknowledged you counting stats theory...However, WARP1 adjust for a full season and BRob has the edge.

WARP1 is a counting stat just like WARP3. You seriously need to do some homework on these stats because you keep misusing them and describing them inaccurately.

And you continue to ignore the BRob injury of 2006...You can do that but you continue to look foolish when you do.

Hey man I've included '06 (which you say is an anomaly) AND '05 (which sure looks to me like an anomaly too). I'm giving a very fair and objective perspective on Roberts' recent production.

BTW, BRob normally has a better OBP, OPS, more doubles, more steals and similar homers...Walks are usually an edge to him as well.

OK, now I see you're just trying to piss me off. Four more counting stats? Seriously?

And as for the OBP, OPS stuff, well, wrong. DeRosa has been in the .360, 800 range as a regular. Roughly the same as Roberts averages, although Roberts shows much more volatility.

I continue to say this and it still rings true...The Cubs are better team with BRob than without and Sweet Lou and Hendry agree with that.

Better? Sure. 5 wins better? You certainly haven't provided us with any reason to believe that. All you've done is misuse WARP and throw around a bunch of unsupported speculation.

Meanwhile I've provided two separate analyses using objective models (the lineup tool) and properly interpreted statistics (normalized WARP3) that indicate the improvement is actually in the 1-2 win range.

So you, owl and all you other little Cubs friends can continue to cry about this but it doesn't change the fact that your team looks at things the way the rest of us do.

Nobody's crying. Not sure why you see the need to resort to a personal attack here.

[ugadawg38]

Once again, everyone pulling out stats to prove Roberts and Derosa are the same player. I don't even know how we're having this discussion. Not sure what half these stats are...But does it include stolen bases? everyone knows that's the difference.

If cubs fans are trying to sell everyone that Roberts and Derosa are the same, then either:

a. They don't think the trade will happen, so they're comforting themselves

b. Or just trying to find a way not to give up prospects

c. Or maybe just don't want to improve the team so the 100 years can continue!

If you need further proof...Look where Roberts is drafted in fantasy baseball leagues compared to Derosa.[/QUOTE]

How do people not comment on these things? Seriously I dont know if this comment is serious or not. If we are basing worth based on fantasy baseball I would assume that you wouldnt trade Brian Roberts for the following people straight up (Jay Bruce, Evan Longoria, Joba Chamberlin, Clayton kershaw, Clay Bucholtz) I could keep going on but the point is redundant. This is probably the most foolish comment I have read on any message board or blog in a long time.

Sports Guy what post number is the Mora better than Rammy argument? Thanks.

[ugadawg38]

Once again, everyone pulling out stats to prove Roberts and Derosa are the same player. I don't even know how we're having this discussion. Not sure what half these stats are...But does it include stolen bases? everyone knows that's the difference.

If cubs fans are trying to sell everyone that Roberts and Derosa are the same, then either:

a. They don't think the trade will happen, so they're comforting themselves

b. Or just trying to find a way not to give up prospects

c. Or maybe just don't want to improve the team so the 100 years can continue!

If you need further proof...Look where Roberts is drafted in fantasy baseball leagues compared to Derosa QUOTE]

How do people not comment on these things? Seriously I dont know if this comment is serious or not. If we are basing worth based on fantasy baseball I would assume that you wouldnt trade Brian Roberts for the following people straight up (Jay Bruce, Evan Longoria, Joba Chamberlin, Clayton kershaw, Clay Bucholtz) I could keep going on but the point is redundant. This is probably the most foolish comment I have read on any message board or blog in a long time.

Sports Guy what post number is the Mora better than Rammy argument? Thanks.

[ugadawg38]

I am extremely sorry for double posting. How do I delete it?

[davearm]

Yep!

Dave is only looking at best case scenario for DeRosa.

HUH?

Citing what DeRosa has actually done in WARP3 terms over the last two years is "looking at best case scenario?"

And in the lineup tool, I used DeRosa's PECOTA equivalent OBP and SLG numbers for 2008. Those represent the weighted mean of the various percentile figures the model kicks out, adjusted for league and park, etc. What do you think I should have used instead, to be more objective?

[ugadawg38]

Just did a little bit of research on A-Ram vs. Mora and I think it is more than a little bit of a stretch to compare the two in my opinion since Aramis does everything better. Except for those two crazy years he had when Aramis still outhit him arguably. And for the record one of those was a year with less than 400 ABS for Mora. Not to mention Aramis has better defense. I think you are stretching it out Sports Guy.

[Harry Carry]

Does anybody else find it hilarious that we are trying to convince Cubs fans that Brian Roberts is a good player worth trading 4-5 players for on an Orioles site....

You don't have to convince me Roberts is a better player.Mark D has only been a everyday player for 2 years.Roberts is a very good in the 1 hole and that's what the Cubs need and that's why Hendry will get it done.Mark D is more valuble coming off the bench and playing other positions which only makes the Cubs stronger.

[davearm]

You don't have to convince me Roberts is a better player.Mark D has only been a everyday player for 2 years.Roberts is a very good in the 1 hole and that's what the Cubs need and that's why Hendry will get it done.Mark D is more valuble coming off the bench and playing other positions which only makes the Cubs stronger.

I don't see anyone debating who the better player is.

What's at issue here is a) how much better, and, b) what is a reasonable price to pay (in players) for the upgrade.

[Harry Carry]

I don't see anyone debating who the better player is.

What's at issue here is a) how much better, and, b) what is a reasonable price to pay (in players) for the upgrade.

It's about the World Series.Hendry has to do what it takes to win the World Series.Roberts gives the Cubs a better chance of reaching that goal imo.

[RShack]

<img src='http://images.icanhascheezburger.com/completestore/2008/3/11/isnotistoo128497697835116287.jpg'></img>

[HoodGuy007]

It's about the World Series.Hendry has to do what it takes to win the World Series.Roberts gives the Cubs a better chance of reaching that goal imo.

I haven't posted on the Orioles Talk board in a while because of the constant Cubbie craziness. Thanks for giving me faith that I will begin enjoying this part of the board again...

[davearm]

It's about the World Series.Hendry has to do what it takes to win the World Series.Roberts gives the Cubs a better chance of reaching that goal imo.

I don't happen to believe that Hendry has the power to win the World Series with his cellphone.

A win-now-at-all-costs approach usually fails in the short run, and almost always hurts in the long run.

I mean if you could just trade your best prospects for a key veteran or two and be assured of winning the World Series, then everyone would do it. But there's just way too much uncertainty in baseball (the postseason especially) for that.

What the situation calls for is an aggressive but smart approach that maximizes the odds for 2008 without crippling 2009 and beyond. Overspend a little for Roberts? Fine. Break the bank? Heck no.

[Harry Carry]

I don't happen to believe that Hendry has the power to win the World Series with his cellphone.

A win-now-at-all-costs approach usually fails in the short run, and almost always hurts in the long run.

I mean if you could just trade your best prospects for a key veteran or two and be assured of winning the World Series, then everyone would do it. But there's just way too much uncertainty in baseball (the postseason especially) for that.

What the situation calls for is an aggressive but smart approach that maximizes the odds for 2008 without crippling 2009 and beyond. Overspend a little for Roberts? Fine. Break the bank? Heck no.

Who would you trade for Roberts ?