Sun: Cubs Offer Ceden, Gallagher, Veal and maybe a 4th player - For Roberts

[WebLink21]

Does anybody else find it hilarious that we are trying to convince Cubs fans that Brian Roberts is a good player worth trading 4-5 players for on an Orioles site....

I do. It has gotten worse and worse as the weeks go on too.

[davearm]

You mean manipulate them to suit your purposes?

No, he seems to understand the difference between a counting stat and a rate stat.

By your thinking, a guy that hits 40 HRs (in 600 ABs) is twice as good as a guy that hits 20 HRs (in 300 ABs).

The error in that logic is exactly the same as the one you're making here with your 2-4 wins business. Getting hundreds more ABs, Roberts had darn well better be worth more wins. Normalize the ABs, though, and the story changes.

[Number5]

I think we should go for Gallagher, Patterson, Murton, and Veal/Colvin assuming Pie is not available. Plug Patterson right in at 2B and leadoff and let Gallagher step right into the rotation. Murton becomes one of our best hitters over the course of the season and Veal/Colvin don't have to be on the 40 man roster. (not that that should be an issue at all but it seems like it is) Cubs don't lose much from their roster this year either.

I much prefer Patterson to Cedeno. He's got the speed and projects much better than Cedeno does...More chance that he turns into a decent to above average player for us than Cedeno does IMO.

What makes you think Gallagher is ready to step immediately into the rotation?

He was shelled just as badly, slightly worse actually, as Liz in their brief call-ups last year. Gallagher has had 8 games at AAA. Both Liz and Gallagher spent most of the season at AA last year and, again, had comparable numbers. Liz strikes out and walks more hitters than Gallagher. Liz has been better thus far in ST, although Gallagher was effective his last time out. I like both of these guys and would love to have them in the Orioles rotation for years to come, but it sure looks to me that both pitchers would be better served starting 2008 in AAA, IMO.

[Sports Guy]

No, he seems to understand the difference between a counting stat and a rate stat.

By your thinking, a guy that hits 40 HRs (in 600 ABs) is twice as good as a guy that hits 20 HRs (in 300 ABs).

The error in that logic is exactly the same as the one you're making here with your 2-4 wins business. Getting hundreds more ABs, Roberts had darn well better be worth more wins. Normalize the ABs, though, and the story changes.

FIne, normalize them to 600 ab's...With the way DeRosa wears down as the season goes along, maybe he is much worse?

See, i can manipulate them too.

BTW, i do agree with what you are saying however, you want it both ways and that's not the way it is.

BTW, it is painfully obvious that your team believes they are much better with BRob starting at second than DeRosa.

[owl]

You mean manipulate them to suit your purposes?

What's being manipulated? It's a COUNTING STAT. Less plate appearances hurt him. This is very important to understand and consider and yet it's most often being dismissed. Secondly, which are you siding with WARP or WARP-2? I have this funny suspicion that if the league adjustment were reversed, you wouldn't be so interested in using WARP3 here. I'd also say that FRAR is one of the lesser defensive metrics and not very accurate when comparing the two. Especially since DeRosa's RF and 3B actually counts against him in position adjustment. But the fielding issues are rather minor here, I suppose, since FRAR isn't ranking them significantly different. So when it really comes down to the meat of the argument, what's being compared is EqA and that includes adjusting for league. We could really dive into that adjustment and compare lineup effect and opposing pitchers but first the raw rate: .802 for DeRosa and .861 for Roberts. However, let's manipulate and give his stolen base numbers to DeRosa. It'd bump his rEqA to .856. So the rates tell a different story than the counting stats, don't they? Roberts clear advantage, and what drives his better "value," is stolen bases. Are you convinced that Roberts would have much better numbers in the NL? Do the stolen bases add 5 wins? Blindly comparing counting stats is far more manipulative than pointing out it's faults in this scenario.

[davearm]

FIne, normalize them to 600 ab's...With the way DeRosa wears down as the season goes along, maybe he is much worse?

See, i can manipulate them too.

I'd be happy to normalize the numbers to 600 PAs.

Since becoming an everyday player in 2003, here's Roberts:

	Actual		Normalized	[u]Year  	  PA   WARP3	  PA   WARP3[/u]2003	 512	 4.8	 600	 5.62004	 734	 5.8	 600	 4.72005	 640	11.5	 600	10.82006	 629	 6.1	 600	 5.8[u]2007	 716	 9.5	 600	 8.0[/u]Total	3231	37.7	3000	34.9Average	 646.2	 7.5	 600.0	 7.0

Since becoming a (nearly) everyday player in 2006, here's DeRosa:

	Actual		Normalized	[u]Year	  PA	WARP3	  PA   WARP3[/u]2006	 572	  6.2	 600	 6.5[u]2007	 574	  5.8	 600	 6.1[/u]Total	1146	 12.0	1200	12.6Average	 573.0	  6.0	 600.0	 6.3

So we see that on a normalized basis, DeRosa has been right around 6 wins per year for the two years he's played regularly.

Roberts has spent 3 years below 6 wins, and 2 years above -- one dramatically above, almost all the way to 11, pulling his average up to 7.0.

Good luck manipulating your way to a 4-win difference. Even 2 is hard to defend.

[Pruke]

Does anybody else find it hilarious that we are trying to convince Cubs fans that Brian Roberts is a good player worth trading 4-5 players for on an Orioles site....

Yes - reminds me of the J Churchill threads you were driving on his site.

Oh well - maybe we'll see a similar deal

[BaltimoreTerp]

baseball sucks now because of stats geeks no one likes

http://yankees-chick.blogspot.com/2008/03/holy-hell-i-hate-it-when_11.html

Dude...you post a thing from a blogger names Yankees Chick...and you honestly expect us to take you seriously?

I'll await your apology.

[Sports Guy]

I'd be happy to normalize the numbers to 600 PAs.

Since becoming an everyday player in 2003, here's Roberts:

	Actual		Normalized	[u]Year  	  PA   WARP3	  PA   WARP3[/u]2003	 512	 4.8	 600	 5.62004	 734	 5.8	 600	 4.72005	 640	11.5	 600	10.82006	 629	 6.1	 600	 5.8[u]2007	 716	 9.5	 600	 8.0[/u]Total	3231	37.7	3000	34.9Average	 646.2	 7.5	 600.0	 7.0

Since becoming a (nearly) everyday player in 2006, here's DeRosa:

	Actual		Normalized	[u]Year	  PA	WARP3	  PA   WARP3[/u]2006	 572	  6.2	 600	 6.5[u]2007	 574	  5.8	 600	 6.1[/u]Total	1146	 12.0	1200	12.6Average	 573.0	  6.0	 600.0	 6.3

So we see that on a normalized basis, DeRosa has been right around 6 wins per year for the two years he's played regularly.

Roberts has spent 3 years below 6 wins, and 2 years above -- one dramatically above, almost all the way to 11, pulling his average up to 7.0.

Good luck manipulating your way to a 4-win difference. Even 2 is hard to defend.

There is no way of knowing how DeRosa will finish up.

He is 33 now...He has never played 150+ games...He has never had 550+ at bats.

If he did those things for the first time, at his age, it is much more reasonable to expect him to decline.

Also, your adjustments are for the inferior league for DeRosa in 2007 and don't take into account how much better BRob would be in the NL.

BTW, when you use the chart you used, you also see a huge difference in EQA for 2007.

[Sports Guy]

What's being manipulated? It's a COUNTING STAT. Less plate appearances hurt him. This is very important to understand and consider and yet it's most often being dismissed. Secondly, which are you siding with WARP or WARP-2? I have this funny suspicion that if the league adjustment were reversed, you wouldn't be so interested in using WARP3 here. I'd also say that FRAR is one of the lesser defensive metrics and not very accurate when comparing the two. Especially since DeRosa's RF and 3B actually counts against him in position adjustment. But the fielding issues are rather minor here, I suppose, since FRAR isn't ranking them significantly different. So when it really comes down to the meat of the argument, what's being compared is EqA and that includes adjusting for league. We could really dive into that adjustment and compare lineup effect and opposing pitchers but first the raw rate: .802 for DeRosa and .861 for Roberts. However, let's manipulate and give his stolen base numbers to DeRosa. It'd bump his rEqA to .856. So the rates tell a different story than the counting stats, don't they? Roberts clear advantage, and what drives his better "value," is stolen bases. Are you convinced that Roberts would have much better numbers in the NL? Do the stolen bases add 5 wins? Blindly comparing counting stats is far more manipulative than pointing out it's faults in this scenario.

I said BRob is 2-4 wins better.

If you want to use WARP1 instead of WARP3, you will see this:

BRob(over the last 3 years):

9.4

4.2

7.1

DeRosa(same time period):

.8

4.3

4.5

If you use WARP3:

BRob:

11.5

6.1

9.5

DeRosa:

1.3

6.2

5.8

EQA(adjusted for season..using chart Dave showed):

BRob:

305

264

285

DeRosa:

259

267

268

BRob wins no matter how you look at it.

Now, i have never said BRob is 5 wins better....What I said is 2-4 wins better and then DeRosa being a super UTI guy being worth a few more wins than say, Ronny Cedeno(a possible super UTI guy for you guys). So, with the trade, a total of around 5 wins better for the Cubs.

[LookinUp]

That's why Hendry wants Roberts to improve the Cubs chances to win the World Series.We have enough to win the division right now but that is not good enough.After 100 years it is about time to do what ever it takes to win the World Series.If that means trading away your best suspects then do it.Roberts leading off with K fuke hitting 2 then you get to the middle of the order that is a preety scarry lineup.

You amuse me.

On the merits, I actually agree with this post for the most part. However, I wouldn't bank on a division title. You've got two teams in your division with some pretty sick young talent (Brewers/Reds). Either could theoretically pull a Rockies this year.

[The Rick]

You amuse me.

On the merits, I actually agree with this post for the most part. However, I wouldn't bank on a division title. You've got two teams in your division with some pretty sick young talent (Brewers/Reds). Either could theoretically pull a Rockies this year.

Especially if the Cubs are content with DeRosa over BRob.

[hatepaste]

Once again, everyone pulling out stats to prove Roberts and Derosa are the same player. I don't even know how we're having this discussion. Not sure what half these stats are...But does it include stolen bases? everyone knows that's the difference.

If cubs fans are trying to sell everyone that Roberts and Derosa are the same, then either:

a. They don't think the trade will happen, so they're comforting themselves

b. Or just trying to find a way not to give up prospects

c. Or maybe just don't want to improve the team so the 100 years can continue!

If you need further proof...Look where Roberts is drafted in fantasy baseball leagues compared to Derosa.

[davearm]

I said BRob is 2-4 wins better.

If you want to use WARP1 instead of WARP3, you will see this:

BRob(over the last 3 years):

9.4

4.2

7.1

DeRosa(same time period):

.8

4.3

4.5

If you use WARP3:

BRob:

11.5

6.1

9.5

DeRosa:

1.3

6.2

5.8

EQA(adjusted for season..using chart Dave showed):

BRob:

305

264

285

DeRosa:

259

267

268

BRob wins no matter how you look at it.

Now, i have never said BRob is 5 wins better....What I said is 2-4 wins better and then DeRosa being a super UTI guy being worth a few more wins than say, Ronny Cedeno(a possible super UTI guy for you guys). So, with the trade, a total of around 5 wins better for the Cubs.

LOL, you still don't get it with the counting stats (WARP1, WARP3).

How in the world do you expect to be taken seriously when you completely ignore the glaring flaw in your analysis, even after it's been pointed out repeatedly?

And when you finally show enough sense to use a rate stat (EqA), what your own numbers indicate is that over the last two years, Roberts was better one year, and DeRosa was better the other year.

[The Rick]

LOL, you still don't get it with the counting stats (WARP1, WARP3).

How in the world do you expect to be taken seriously when you completely ignore the glaring flaw in your analysis, even after it's been pointed out repeatedly?

And when you finally show enough sense to use a rate stat, what your own numbers show is that over the last two years, Roberts was better one year, and DeRosa was better the other year.

And you keep ignoring how many AB's DeRosa is good for and that we DON'T KNOW what he'd do over the course of a full season. What's the difference? You're both crunching #'s to back up your beliefs. You love chucking stones when you live in a glass house.