PECOTA takes on standings

[Frobby]

So you're projecting something like 81-84 wins?

Correct. I have them at 815 runs scored (plus or minus 25), 805 runs allowed (plus or minus 25). They could end up below .500 if the "plus/minus" works against them, but only by a couple of games. 74-88 would really shock (and depress) me.

[NewMarketSean]

I think I disagree with the Devil Rays have 78 wins more than I do about the Orioles having 74 wins.

I know there is the probability that we could only win 74, but I do think they'll be closer to the 78-84 win range.

That's why they play the games though. And it would be interesting if someone posted the 2006 PECOTA standings next to the team's actual standings.

[Tony-OH]

BP article from yesterday. Nate Silver piece on projected standings, and where he thinks the system underrated/overrated/nailed individual players.

Exerpts from O's relevant bits:

                       W         L         RS     RA     AVG     OBP    SLGBoston Red Sox         93        69        892    762    .280   .361   .464New York Yankees       93        69        897    771    .280   .362   .454Toronto Blue Jays      80        82        813    831    .271   .342   .449Tampa Bay Devil Rays   78        84        806    834    .275   .338   .446Baltimore Orioles      74        88        754    823    .274   .333   .423

Jon,

Do you happen to have what PECOTA predicted in the past for standings? I'm just interested in knowing the history of this system in predicting final standings.

[SilentJames]

So I guess this is finally going to be the year the Devil Rays do something other than sit in the basement, huh? How long have we been hearing that?

I mean there is no way in hell these guys are saying that the TB staff (rotation & pen) is going to be better than the Orioles staff, right? I mean I'm no mathemetician, but The Orioles actually have a staff, with a solid pen and a top 10 closer. The Rays certainly do not.

Looking closer at it, the Orioles will have the third best RA in the division. They are saying the offense will be THAT bad?

I mean I know it is possible, as anything is. but stepping away from the numbers and looking at the actual players we have, I just don't see how it is.

[DrungoHazewood]

I tend to agree with this. Hopefully they projected the Tigers to only win 74 games last season.

It projected the Tigers to 83-79, in the thick of a tough race in the central.

[SilentJames]

Jon,

Do you happen to have what PECOTA predicted in the past for standings? I'm just interested in knowing the history of this system in predicting final standings.

Thats not very fair for our division. Its been so consistent for so long. NY, BOS, TOR, BAL, TB with such little variation.

A more accurate test would be say the NL Central over the last 5 years. Or the NL East. Divisions with a healthy mix and rather constant variations. Also surprise teams and comebacks and all.

[DrungoHazewood]

Jon,

Do you happen to have what PECOTA predicted in the past for standings? I'm just interested in knowing the history of this system in predicting final standings.

They have archived articles going back to the late 90s, so the data is there. If I get a chance I'll see what I can pull up.

Here's last year (I already had the article in another tab):

AL East            W    L   Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   PlayoffsYankees           94   68  0.580   94.2   67.8   43.28778   15.72260   59.01038Red_Sox           93   69  0.574   93.3   68.7   39.77486   16.22681   56.00166Blue_Jays         79   83  0.488   78.1   83.9    8.31576    6.89441   15.21017Orioles           77   85  0.475   76.3   85.7    6.62935    5.73227   12.36162Devil_Rays        69   93  0.426   67.6   94.4    1.99225    1.87677    3.86901AL Central         W    L   Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   PlayoffsIndians           88   74  0.543   88.5   73.5   35.20064    8.78274   43.98338Twins             84   78  0.519   84.2   77.8   23.49712    7.77191   31.26903Tigers            83   79  0.512   83.1   78.9   21.08707    7.27850   28.36557White_Sox         82   80  0.506   82.3   79.7   19.38250    6.92247   26.30498Royals            61  101  0.377   59.2  102.8    0.83267    0.34850    1.18117AL West            W    L   Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   PlayoffsAthletics         93   69  0.574   93.2   68.8   56.29157    6.59269   62.88426Angels            81   81  0.500   80.6   81.4   17.79706    6.24361   24.04066Rangers           80   82  0.494   78.9   83.1   14.87564    5.44827   20.32391Mariners          77   85  0.475   76.2   85.8   11.03572    4.15847   15.19420NL East            W    L   Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   PlayoffsMets              88   74  0.543   88.7   73.3   34.87073    9.38327   44.25401Phillies          86   76  0.531   86.7   75.3   29.17462    9.02598   38.20060Braves            85   77  0.525   85.9   76.1   26.90155    8.85743   35.75898Marlins           71   91  0.438   70.8   91.2    4.86164    2.14093    7.00258Nationals         70   92  0.432   69.7   92.3    4.19146    1.88337    6.07483NL Central         W    L   Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   PlayoffsCardinals         86   76  0.531   86.8   75.2   25.60775   10.19374   35.80149Cubs              85   77  0.525   84.8   77.2   20.92252    9.30203   30.22454Brewers           84   78  0.519   84.3   77.7   19.73443    9.14919   28.88363Astros            81   81  0.500   81.4   80.6   14.15639    7.53457   21.69096Pirates           79   83  0.488   78.7   83.3   10.36314    6.04375   16.40689Reds              78   84  0.481   77.5   84.5    9.21577    5.28132   14.49708NL West            W    L   Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   PlayoffsDodgers           87   75  0.537   88.2   73.8   40.46942    5.97881   46.44822Giants            80   82  0.494   80.4   81.6   19.46346    4.71041   24.17387Padres            78   84  0.481   78.5   83.5   15.81572    4.09959   19.91531Diamondbacks      77   85  0.475   77.6   84.4   14.40048    3.79279   18.19327Rockies           74   88  0.457   74.2   87.8    9.85092    2.62281   12.47373

[SilentJames]

It projected the Tigers to 83-79, in the thick of a tough race in the central.

And the Tigers finished with 95 wins. So PECOTA was off by 12 wins.

Point is it is not an exact science and we should not put too much stock into it.

It DOES say that we will have a strong pitching staff, stronger than last years. but I just do not get the complete lack of any offensive abilities. The general consensus being that the O's will have a slightly improved offense over last year.

I agree with Frobby that 754 seems ridiculously low for this team. Even with its spring training troubles, 754? And Tampa Bay's output increasing almost 120 runs? Really?

In all fairness to the system, it is only 14 runs fewer than what we scored last year, and it is giving us 4 more wins over last year.

[Hank Scorpio]

Pardon me if I don't go jumping off any bridges over Nate's math, boys.

[Sports Guy]

They have archived articles going back to the late 90s, so the data is there. If I get a chance I'll see what I can pull up.

Here's last year (I already had the article in another tab):

AL East            W    L   Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   PlayoffsYankees           94   68  0.580   94.2   67.8   43.28778   15.72260   59.01038Red_Sox           93   69  0.574   93.3   68.7   39.77486   16.22681   56.00166Blue_Jays         79   83  0.488   78.1   83.9    8.31576    6.89441   15.21017Orioles           77   85  0.475   76.3   85.7    6.62935    5.73227   12.36162Devil_Rays        69   93  0.426   67.6   94.4    1.99225    1.87677    3.86901AL Central         W    L   Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   PlayoffsIndians           88   74  0.543   88.5   73.5   35.20064    8.78274   43.98338Twins             84   78  0.519   84.2   77.8   23.49712    7.77191   31.26903Tigers            83   79  0.512   83.1   78.9   21.08707    7.27850   28.36557White_Sox         82   80  0.506   82.3   79.7   19.38250    6.92247   26.30498Royals            61  101  0.377   59.2  102.8    0.83267    0.34850    1.18117AL West            W    L   Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   PlayoffsAthletics         93   69  0.574   93.2   68.8   56.29157    6.59269   62.88426Angels            81   81  0.500   80.6   81.4   17.79706    6.24361   24.04066Rangers           80   82  0.494   78.9   83.1   14.87564    5.44827   20.32391Mariners          77   85  0.475   76.2   85.8   11.03572    4.15847   15.19420NL East            W    L   Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   PlayoffsMets              88   74  0.543   88.7   73.3   34.87073    9.38327   44.25401Phillies          86   76  0.531   86.7   75.3   29.17462    9.02598   38.20060Braves            85   77  0.525   85.9   76.1   26.90155    8.85743   35.75898Marlins           71   91  0.438   70.8   91.2    4.86164    2.14093    7.00258Nationals         70   92  0.432   69.7   92.3    4.19146    1.88337    6.07483NL Central         W    L   Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   PlayoffsCardinals         86   76  0.531   86.8   75.2   25.60775   10.19374   35.80149Cubs              85   77  0.525   84.8   77.2   20.92252    9.30203   30.22454Brewers           84   78  0.519   84.3   77.7   19.73443    9.14919   28.88363Astros            81   81  0.500   81.4   80.6   14.15639    7.53457   21.69096Pirates           79   83  0.488   78.7   83.3   10.36314    6.04375   16.40689Reds              78   84  0.481   77.5   84.5    9.21577    5.28132   14.49708NL West            W    L   Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   PlayoffsDodgers           87   75  0.537   88.2   73.8   40.46942    5.97881   46.44822Giants            80   82  0.494   80.4   81.6   19.46346    4.71041   24.17387Padres            78   84  0.481   78.5   83.5   15.81572    4.09959   19.91531Diamondbacks      77   85  0.475   77.6   84.4   14.40048    3.79279   18.19327Rockies           74   88  0.457   74.2   87.8    9.85092    2.62281   12.47373

Well, they got 4 of the 6 division winners right...After that, it was pretty much way off.

[DrungoHazewood]

I mean there is no way in hell these guys are saying that the TB staff (rotation & pen) is going to be better than the Orioles staff, right? I mean I'm no mathemetician, but The Orioles actually have a staff, with a solid pen and a top 10 closer. The Rays certainly do not.

Looking closer at it, the Orioles will have the third best RA in the division. They are saying the offense will be THAT bad?

I mean I know it is possible, as anything is. but stepping away from the numbers and looking at the actual players we have, I just don't see how it is.

Here's how PECOTA sees the two staffs right now:

Pos  	Name  	IP 	ERA 	W 	L 	SV Starter-1 	Scott Kazmir 	150	4.02	9	7	0Starter-2 	James Shields 	165	4.49	9	9	0Starter-3 	Jae Seo 	120	5.31	6	7	0Starter-4 	Tim Corcoran 	95	5.24	4	6	0Starter-5 	Jason Hammel 	135	4.91	7	8	0Spot 	J.P. Howell 	85	4.62	7	8	0Spot 	Casey Fossum 	50	5.01	2	3	0Spot 	Brian Stokes 	35	5.47	1	2	0Spot 	Jeff Niemann 	35	5.02	1	2	0Closer 	Seth McClung 	70	4.95	3	4	13Setup 	Al Reyes 	45	3.85	2	2	12Setup 	Shawn Camp 	60	4	2	2	3Mid 	Ruddy Lugo 	70	4.34	3	2	1Mid 	Chad Orvella 	55	4.05	2	2	2Long 	Dan Miceli 	45	4.49	2	2	2Long 	Edwin Jackson 	75	5.83	3	5	0Long 	Juan Salas 	60	5.25	2	3	1Long 	J.P. Howell 	50	4.62	7	8	0Long 	Shinji Mori 	40	5.35	1	2	0Pos  	Name  	IP 	ERA 	W 	L 	SV Starter-1 	Erik Bedard 	180	4.19	10	9	0Starter-2 	Daniel Cabrera 	160	4.33	9	9	0Starter-3 	Adam Loewen 	170	4.67	9	10	0Starter-4 	Steve Trachsel 	120	5.6	5	8	0Starter-5 	Jaret Wright 	135	4.92	6	9	0Spot 	Hayden Penn 	70	5.41	5	8	0Spot 	Garrett Olson 	60	5.25	2	4	0Spot 	Kris Benson 	15	5.11	0	1	0Closer 	Chris Ray 	65	3.61	3	4	25Setup 	Jamie Walker 	50	4.01	2	2	3Setup 	Danys Baez 	60	4.29	2	2	3Mid 	Chad Bradford 	55	3.45	2	2	3Mid 	Scott Williamson 	50	4.36	2	2	2Long 	Jeremy Guthrie 	55	5.48	2	3	0Long 	Sendy Rleal 	40	4.39	1	1	1Long 	Todd Williams 	55	4.03	2	2	1Long 	Hayden Penn 	50	5.41	5	8	0Long 	Kurt Birkins 	50	4.7	2	2	1

[SilentJames]

It projected the Tigers to 83-79, in the thick of a tough race in the central.

And the Tigers finished with 95 wins. So PECOTA was off by 12 wins.

Point is it is not an exact science and we should not put too much stock into it.

It DOES say that we will have a strong pitching staff, stronger than last years. but I just do not get the complete lack of any offensive abilities. The general consensus being that the O's will have a slightly improved offense over last year.

I agree with Frobby that 754 seems ridiculously low for this team. Even with its spring training troubles, 754? And Tampa Bay's output increasing almost 120 runs? Really?

In all fairness to the system, it is only 14 runs fewer than what we scored last year, and it is giving us 4 more wins over last year.

[Sports Guy]

And the Tigers finished with 95 wins. So PECOTA was off by 12 wins.

Point is it is not an exact science and we should not put too much stock into it.

It DOES say that we will have a strong pitching staff, stronger than last years. but I just do not get the complete lack of any offensive abilities. The general consensus being that the O's will have a slightly improved offense over last year.

I agree with Frobby that 754 seems ridiculously low for this team. Even with its spring training troubles, 754? And Tampa Bay's output increasing almost 120 runs? Really?

In all fairness to the system, it is only 14 runs fewer than what we scored last year, and it is giving us 4 more wins over last year.

Tampa will have a better offense than us...They have a lot fo young talent that figures to keep getting better.

I think 754 is low as well but by how much? This team will likely score anywhere from 775-830 runs. So, maybe it is off by 20-25 runs and, over the course of the season, how much is that worth in terms of wins? Not much.

[Hank Scorpio]

Tampa will have a better offense than us...They have a lot fo young talent that figures to keep getting better.

I think 754 is low as well but by how much? This team will likely score anywhere from 775-830 runs. So, maybe it is off by 20-25 runs and, over the course of the season, how much is that worth in terms of wins? Not much.

Tampa's had a lot of young talent that figures to keep getting better forever.

[SilentJames]

Tampa will have a better offense than us...They have a lot fo young talent that figures to keep getting better.

I think 754 is low as well but by how much? This team will likely score anywhere from 775-830 runs. So, maybe it is off by 20-25 runs and, over the course of the season, how much is that worth in terms of wins? Not much.

well that all depends on how many one-run losses we have now doesn't it?

SG. How many years have we heard that now? When are the TB boys finally gonna make good on all the hype they get. Every year is going to be their break out year.

Forgive me for being skepical on that, but the nice home they have made for themselves in the basement year, after year, after year makes me question it.

Yeah it could happen. But anything COULD happen.