Why trade Roberts?

[ScottieBaseball]

There's no stud coming back for Roberts. Not from the Cubs and not from any other team, either.

I believe that if Roberts performs near an All-Star level, bringing a stud in return at the non-waiver deadline isn't really far-fetched.

[davearm]

If I recall correctly, the source said that Angelos is prepared to do whatever it takes to get Teixeira, including emptying the bank.

Angelos can't do whatever it takes to sign Tex, if what it takes is to put a killer lineup around him like the other likely suitors can.

I'm fine with the notion that Angelos won't be outbid. That very well could be, but time will tell, because that would be quintessentally anti-MacPhail.

The O's have money and the hometown thing as selling points. They can't sell a recent history of winning, and they also can't sell an immediate future of winning. Those and other factors may be important.

[davearm]

I believe that if Roberts performs near an All-Star level, bringing a stud in return at the non-waiver deadline isn't really far-fetched.

So your theory is that at some later date, with less time remaining on Roberts' contract, some other team will emerge and be even more aggressive, more motivated, with an even bigger need, and more willing to overpay with young players than the Cubs have been this offseason?

Folks don't really seem to appreciate that the sort of aligning-of-stars that you're imagining is actually what's happened here. Expecting an even more ideal set of circumstances than these is really not very realistic.

[ChaosLex]

Angelos can't do whatever it takes to sign Tex, if what it takes is to put a killer lineup around him like the other likely suitors can.

True, but considering we're headed in the right direction (especially if our starting pitching matures this year), I think the O's would be an enticing option as well. Especially to a hometown boy.

Markakis, Roberts, and Jones are nothing to sneeze at, especially with Wieters and Rowell waiting in the wings.

[ScottieBaseball]

So your theory is that at some later date, with less time remaining on Roberts' contract, some other team will emerge and be even more aggressive, more motivated, with an even bigger need, and more willing to overpay with young players than the Cubs have been this offseason?

Folks don't really seem to appreciate that the sort of aligning-of-stars that you're imagining is actually what's happened here. Expecting an even more ideal set of circumstances than these is really not very realistic.

It may not be a multitude of players. Instead, I expect it could be higher overall quality rather than quantity.

I've maintained through out this thread and others that a highly unpredictable gray area exists in situations such as these. We'll have to agree to disagree on the realism of what I described I guess.

[davearm]

True, but considering we're headed in the right direction (especially if our starting pitching matures this year), I think the O's would be an enticing option as well. Especially to a hometown boy.

Markakis, Roberts, and Jones are nothing to sneeze at, especially with Wieters and Rowell waiting in the wings.

Enticing or not, it's nowhere close to what teams like BOS, NYY, NYM, LAA have to offer.

Those teams are proven winners and perennial postseason clubs, with all the pieces in place to contend for championships.

Despite the optimism folks have for the new youth movement, the fact remains that the O's are at the exact opposite end of this spectrum right now, and almost certainly still will be in 7 or 8 months.

If going to a winning situation is of primary importance, then really, the O's have virtually no chance, because realistically, they're not going to separate themselves from these other teams on money.

[crawjo]

So your theory is that at some later date, with less time remaining on Roberts' contract, some other team will emerge and be even more aggressive, more motivated, with an even bigger need, and more willing to overpay with young players than the Cubs have been this offseason?

Folks don't really seem to appreciate that the sort of aligning-of-stars that you're imagining is actually what's happened here. Expecting an even more ideal set of circumstances than these is really not very realistic.

Everything was right with the Cubs situation except the players they had to offer. The Cubs minor league system is NOT THAT GOOD.

BP on Gallagher: "Gallagher will be just 22 next season and already possesses an average fastball and breaking pitch, but both PECOTA and scouts are dubious about how much better he's likely to get."

On Veal: "That Veal is the best pitching prospect the Cubs have is irrefutable evidence that their farm system is no longer the pitching factory it once was."

In my opinion, Gallagher's ceiling is as a #3 starter in the majors. More likely he will not amount to much over his career. The best player was Ceda, but he tops out as a closer, who are frankly easier to find than good starting pitchers or good hitters.

[allstar1579]

Lofton's been traded a lot, for sure.

However that's not the guy you want to build an argument around though, once you look at the returns on those various deals.

In fact he's a prime counterargument to the notion that a team will offer a ton for a speed/leadoff guy at the deadline.

The one time the Cubs acquired Lofton in July, the cost was one good prospect (Bobby Hill), and one junk veteran. Oh and Aramis Ramirez came along with Lofton.

It's not about what teams got in return for those players because the market is what someone is willing to give up in regards to what prospects they have at various levels to what the team trading the player is asking for. The point is that those types of players are often dealt for around the deadline. Henderson, D. Roberts, Lofton, Tim Raines, Vince Coleman, typical leadoff men will always be in demand for teams with that philosophy and need.

No one can sit here and say this was acceptable, and this was not, because none of us are Major League GMs, and none of us can actually make a trade. If someone tomorrow gets it in their head that dealing Kemp, Hu, and Laroche for Jose Guillen is a good idea (making a point) then I'm sure it would happen. No one is going to say, no I'm sorry, we aren't going to let LA make this trade because obviously they are smoking illegal drugs.

Best possible guess is that the O's decided they want positional prospects after getting 8 pitching prospects to go with their own, and decided we do not match up well with the Cubs in that sense. No bashing their prospects, no overvaluing Brian, the two teams just don't match up well, the end.

[ChaosLex]

Enticing or not, it's nowhere close to what teams like BOS, NYY, NYM, LAA have to offer.

Those teams are proven winners and perennial postseason clubs, with all the pieces in place to contend for championships.

Despite the optimism folks have for the new youth movement, the fact remains that the O's are at the exact opposite end of this spectrum right now, and almost certainly still will be in 7 or 8 months.

If going to a winning situation is of primary importance, then really, the O's have virtually no chance, because realistically, they're not going to separate themselves from these other teams on money.

I'm going to enjoy watching you eat crow in 12 months, Dave.

And yes, I'll happily admit defeat in the "off-chance" that Teixeira signs elsewhere.

[davearm]

I'm going to enjoy watching you eat crow in 12 months, Dave.

And yes, I'll happily admit defeat in the "off-chance" that Teixeira signs elsewhere.

Eat crow for what?

If Tex signs with the O's over the various other suitors I've listed, then that will simply indicate that winning isn't a high priority for him. I'm open to that possibility.

But if winning is a high priority, then the O's are pretty much dead in the water, because other teams have much more of that to offer.

[ChaosLex]

Eat crow for what?

If Tex signs with the O's over the various other suitors I've listed, then that will simply indicate that winning isn't a high priority for him. I'm open to that possibility.

But if winning is a high priority, then the O's are pretty much dead in the water, because other teams have much more of that to offer.

Haha. Considering he's a Boras client, I'd say money is the determining factor, not "winning."

Soriano signed with the Cubs when they were crappy, and I'm sure there were better teams that wooed him. We'll just have to wait and see...

[allstar1579]

I'm going to enjoy watching you eat crow in 12 months, Dave.

And yes, I'll happily admit defeat in the "off-chance" that Teixeira signs elsewhere.

Of course teams that can overpay that much will always be in it, NYY, BOS, NYM and so on. But Tex is the one player we have a shot on just for sake of his family and that he likes the area. People always overlook intangibles in these situations. It's not always about $$$, sometimes it is (Soriano), sometimes it's finding a place you can compete (Guererro), and sometimes they just want to feel comfortable (Konerko).

We will just have to wait and see what he does, but I can say for a fact that we still have a legit shot at Tex, even as of today.

[geschinger]

Enticing or not, it's nowhere close to what teams like BOS, NYY, NYM, LAA have to offer.

Those teams are proven winners and perennial postseason clubs, with all the pieces in place to contend for championships.

Despite the optimism folks have for the new youth movement, the fact remains that the O's are at the exact opposite end of this spectrum right now, and almost certainly still will be in 7 or 8 months.

If going to a winning situation is of primary importance, then really, the O's have virtually no chance, because realistically, they're not going to separate themselves from these other teams on money.

Tex is represented by Boras. The only thing that is going to matter is the size of the contract offered. Unless Tex changes representation he's going to end up signing with the highest bidder. I'd love to see him end up an Oriole but I do think in this bubble market that the bidding for his services will be intense and will shoot his salary well past him being able to provide a solid ROI. It is my hope the Orioles engage but if there are indeed a lot of teams bidding his salary into the stratosphere that they are willing to walk away.

Of course teams that can overpay that much will always be in it, NYY, BOS, NYM and so on. But Tex is the one player we have a shot on just for sake of his family and that he likes the area. People always overlook intangibles in these situations. It's not always about $$$, sometimes it is (Soriano), sometimes it's finding a place you can compete (Guererro), and sometimes they just want to feel comfortable (Konerko).

We will just have to wait and see what he does, but I can say for a fact that we still have a legit shot at Tex, even as of today.

When has it ever not ben about the $$$ with a Boras client? For those players for whom something other than $ is of primary importance they either have to drop Boras completely or negotiatie on their own. I don't see Tex being one of those guys but rather someone who has faith in Boras and will accept his advice.

[davearm]

It's not about what teams got in return for those players because the market is what someone is willing to give up in regards to what prospects they have at various levels to what the team trading the player is asking for. The point is that those types of players are often dealt for around the deadline. Henderson, D. Roberts, Lofton, Tim Raines, Vince Coleman, typical leadoff men will always be in demand for teams with that philosophy and need.

No one can sit here and say this was acceptable, and this was not, because none of us are Major League GMs, and none of us can actually make a trade. If someone tomorrow gets it in their head that dealing Kemp, Hu, and Laroche for Jose Guillen is a good idea (making a point) then I'm sure it would happen. No one is going to say, no I'm sorry, we aren't going to let LA make this trade because obviously they are smoking illegal drugs.

Best possible guess is that the O's decided they want positional prospects after getting 8 pitching prospects to go with their own, and decided we do not match up well with the Cubs in that sense. No bashing their prospects, no overvaluing Brian, the two teams just don't match up well, the end.

LOL, what guys with similar skillsets and age/cost/contract profiles have been traded for in the past is exactly what this is about.

Nobody's questioning that there will be demand for a leadoff hitter at some price. The entire issue is what that price is likely to be.

So if you think Roberts will be traded in July for something superior to what's being offered now by the Cubs, then show me an instance when it's happened before. That'd be a good way to prove your point.

[davearm]

Haha. Considering he's a Boras client, I'd say money is the determining factor, not "winning."

Soriano signed with the Cubs when they were crappy, and I'm sure there were better teams that wooed him. We'll just have to wait and see...

By that logic, the hometown thing won't mean a darn thing either.