Why trade Roberts?

[Roll Tide]

Excellent post! I still don't understand how McPhail turned down those 4 players for Roberts especially when the O's are rebuilding. I'd love to have Roberts, but that bid was over the top.

I thought the post your were replying to was a good one. I cant say that I agree with your point here.

The problem with the deal is WHO'S THE STUD COMING TO THE O'S???

There isn't one in the list except maybe Ceda. Sorry but IMO the key player isnt going to be a reliever.

[allstar1579]

Well, the third most sought after items is a distant 3rd. I'd say starting pitching, bullpen arms and middle of the order run producers. The point is there is probably not going to be a big demand. And by the way, can you name any of the players ever traded for Rickey Henderson? Here is a link for you. I don't think you will be overwhelmed by the players he netted the two times he was traded during the season.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/henderi01.shtml#TRANS

Maybe a better comparison is Roberto Alomar (who was all around a better player than Roberts). He was also traded in the winter and during the season. Take a look at this one and tell me if the O's are overplaying their hand with Roberts.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/a/alomaro01.shtml#TRANS

After the 2007 All-Star game, Roberts hit a robust .247 with OBP of .341. The OBP was respectable, but not overwhelming. He also struck out 56 times compared to 41 walks, hardly the ratio of a "prototypical" leadoff hitter.

Since mid season trades rarely net the same level of prospects as offseason trades, don't count on a better offer. Some people, outside of the O's world, would say the Cubs offer was as good as the O's will ever get.

You are right in the fact that you never know what you are going to get, but to get a better gauge of the trades, we would have to know what those prospects were ranked as at the time of the deal. It's easy to say now that they were weak trades, but for all we know it could have been a team's 3 best prospects and they just didn't pan out.

Brian's avg. dropped in the 2nd half, but his power and rbi numbers also jumped. He wasn't hitting like a typical leadoff man, but if i recall he was also fighting some nagging injuries here and there. I remember him missing 2 or 3 of the games i went to scattered throughout the 2nd half. It's safe to say that Brian is going to give you somewhere between .280-.300 15-20HR (Rbi will differ depending on the team, with us it may be 65, with you it may be 80) and somewhere between 35-50 steals depending on the mgr.

The problem with the deal from our end is we are overflowing with pitching prospects, and at a loss for positional guys. Ceda would be nice, as would Colvin, Vitters, or Pie, but guys like Marshall, Veal, and Gallagher would be a luxury since we have a lot of prospects in the same mold right now. It's really just a matter of not matching up well at the moment. If some of your guys have a good year and get elevated to prospect status, we may have something else to deal with. As of now though, we can just hold out and wait because it's not like we are a contender if we make this deal.

[turtlebowl]

O's and Cubs do not match up. I think once we picked up the players we did for Bedard and Tejada that became obvious. Maybe AM thought he would get a stud infield prospect from one of those 2 trades and it didn't happen.

We need a young middle infield prospect with big upside. Some may argue but AM must feel that the Cubs did not have that player.

AM made the Roberts the last trade for a reason. It would be really hard to pencil in the worst middle infield in Baseball for a whole season.

[ScottieBaseball]

There is a very good chance you will be disappointed in offers for your HUGE bargaining chip at the non-waiver deadline. Most teams will be looking for pitching or middle of the order hitters, at least that is the historical trend. What if Roberts first half is more like his 2nd half last year?

Where does trading a top notch starting pitcher (Bedard) for a questionable return of prospects get you? Adam Jones may end up being very good or he may end being similar to Corey Patterson. To act like any prospects are sure things is funny.

There's also a very good chance that Roberts is headed back to the All-Star game and could bring a lot to a contender or a would-be contender.

Roberts could have a bad first half, Adam Jones could be the 2nd coming of Corey Patterson, and the players offered for Roberts could go on to All-Star careers. Or all of the opposite could happen. It's certainly a gamble, but I believe MacPhail's approach has the best chance of landing him as the chip leader.

Sure thing? When did I act like anyone was a sure thing? What's funny is you putting words in my mouth.

[Ballgame64]

You contradict yourself here. First, you say that the O's were foolish for not taking the Cubs offer for BRob. Then, you say that prospects don't always pan out when talking about the Mariners trade. Which is it? If they don't always pan out then maybe McPhail was wise in not taking the Cubs offer, and keeping BRob.

BTW, I don't know who you think we got from the Mariners but by all accounts it's one of the best returns in recent years and by far better than anything the Cubs have offered for BRob.

IMO the O's were foolish for not taking the Cubs offer. My point was why does everyone act like the Bedard trade was so great but the offer for Roberts was lacking. No one knows how any of the prospects will pan out. If you are going to go with accounts from others that the return for Bedard was good, then you should listen to those scouts who can't believe MacPhail turned down 4 decent players for a second baseman. To act like the return for a #1 type of starting pitcher and a 2nd baseman should be the same isn't realistic in my opinion.

I've provided links to trades of a premier leadoff hitter, Rickey Henderson, and a premier 2nd baseman, Roberto Alomar. If you look at those transactions, you will see they did not get 4 guys. I realize it is hard to look at trades from years ago without having the proper context of how those prospects were rated, but the point is clear, more players were included when the players were traded in the offseason compared to at the trade deadline.

[RShack]

At that point, Hendry walked away.

Well, that's nice. Good for him. I guess he really showed AM a thing or two.

Can we quit talking about the Cubs now?

[ChaosLex]

Well, that's nice. Good for him. I guess he really showed AM a thing or two.

Can we quit talking about the Cubs now?

God, I wish we would.

[Sports Guy]

IMO the O's were foolish for not taking the Cubs offer. My point was why does everyone act like the Bedard trade was so great but the offer for Roberts was lacking. No one knows how any of the prospects will pan out. If you are going to go with accounts from others that the return for Bedard was good, then you should listen to those scouts who can't believe MacPhail turned down 4 decent players for a second baseman. To act like the return for a #1 type of starting pitcher and a 2nd baseman should be the same isn't realistic in my opinion.

I've provided links to trades of a premier leadoff hitter, Rickey Henderson, and a premier 2nd baseman, Roberto Alomar. If you look at those transactions, you will see they did not get 4 guys. I realize it is hard to look at trades from years ago without having the proper context of how those prospects were rated, but the point is clear, more players were included when the players were traded in the offseason compared to at the trade deadline.

The 2 offers aren't even remotely comparable so even bringing them up in the same sentence is foolish.

AM was wrong in not taking the offer IMO but please, don't even attempt tp compare what we got for Bedard with what you guys are offering for BRob.

[rynomites]

Soriano was a hot commodity when the Cubs signed him. And they had a record worse than we did that year.

You have got to be kidding me. Wow. To compare the state of the Cub franchise to the state of the O's right now is as big of a stretch as I've seen in quite a long time. I've said this over & over...the O's will not be able to sign Roberts when he's a free agent, nor should they want to if you truly plan to rebuild into a winner. Roberts will be traded this year & I predict for no more than what the Cubs offered. As an earlier poster just said, objective & respectable sources (including the O's own scouts) have said the Cubs offer was an overpayment & the O's should have taken it.

[crawjo]

IMO the O's were foolish for not taking the Cubs offer. My point was why does everyone act like the Bedard trade was so great but the offer for Roberts was lacking. No one knows how any of the prospects will pan out. If you are going to go with accounts from others that the return for Bedard was good, then you should listen to those scouts who can't believe MacPhail turned down 4 decent players for a second baseman. To act like the return for a #1 type of starting pitcher and a 2nd baseman should be the same isn't realistic in my opinion.

I've provided links to trades of a premier leadoff hitter, Rickey Henderson, and a premier 2nd baseman, Roberto Alomar. If you look at those transactions, you will see they did not get 4 guys. I realize it is hard to look at trades from years ago without having the proper context of how those prospects were rated, but the point is clear, more players were included when the players were traded in the offseason compared to at the trade deadline.

The number of guys should not be an issue. The question is quality, not quantity. And besides quality, it's a question of whether the quality the Cubs offer is the quality the Orioles are looking for. The big problem with this deal was that the Orioles are hurting for position players, and we would have needed to get more back if we were going to give away Roberts. Ronny Cedeno wasn't going to cut it in that regard.

Do we know for sure exactly which offer the Orioles walked away from?

[Crazysilver03]

Not only are you bidding against franchises with winning records and deep pockets, you need to realize that the Yankees could drop about $80.5 million in expiring contracts (Giambi, Abreu, Pettitte, Mussina, Pavano, Farnsworth), the Red Sox $37 million (Ramirez, Varitek, Schilling), the Mets $41 million (Delgado, Martinez, Alou Hernandez), and the Angels about $36 million (Anderson, Garland, Lackey, Figgins). The bidding is going to be hot and heavy for Sabbathia and Tex.

Well, for the Red Sox, I dont see how they dont bring back Ramirez, who would make $20M, so really they are jettisoning $8M for Schilling and $11M for Varitek.

It is the Yankees, with 80M coming off the books, that will be looking to add Sabathia and Texeria.

[Nightwing]

I thought the post your were replying to was a good one. I cant say that I agree with your point here.

The problem with the deal is WHO'S THE STUD COMING TO THE O'S???

There isn't one in the list except maybe Ceda. Sorry but IMO the key player isnt going to be a reliever.

Brian Roberts is good enough for a 2 or 3 for 1 type deal, but not good enough to bring a Top 5 Stud prospect back in any deal, unless the other team was foolish enough to offer such stud. IMO, a Gallagher/Ceda/ plus solid prospect like Cedeno or Patterson is MORE then enough for Roberts. And the more the AMP ask for, the less quality he should get. Roberts isn't good enough for any team to mortage the future, and that is what MacP was trying to do with the Cubs.

Personally, I much rather save the prospects and go after a SS like Greene or Peralta after the season. Reason: SS is a bigger need then leadoff.

[Pamjr8]

Keeping Brian isn't in the cards. He doesn't want to stay. You can't keep a player when they are unhappy. Soon his back or neck or whatever it is that sat him out last week, will act up again and miraculously disappear when he's in a different uniform.

Too bad. He seems like a nice guy.

[ScottieBaseball]

You have got to be kidding me. Wow. To compare the state of the Cub franchise to the state of the O's right now is as big of a stretch as I've seen in quite a long time. I've said this over & over...the O's will not be able to sign Roberts when he's a free agent, nor should they want to if you truly plan to rebuild into a winner. Roberts will be traded this year & I predict for no more than what the Cubs offered. As an earlier poster just said, objective & respectable sources (including the O's own scouts) have said the Cubs offer was an overpayment & the O's should have taken it.

The Cubs had a worse record than the O's that season was the point and not the overall state of the respective franchises.

Cite your sources on the comments from the scouts, please. Links? I'm not doubting you, I'd just like to know who said it and what they said.

[ChaosLex]

The Cubs had a worse record than the O's that season was the point and not the overall state of the respective franchises.

Cite your sources on the comments from the scouts, please. Links? I'm not doubting you, I'd just like to know who said it and what they said.

I still stand by my statement that if a bad team (at the time) like the Cubs were able to sign Soriano, I don't see why the same wouldn't hold true for the O's and Teixeira. Seems pretty straightforward to me...