Yeah Hernandez!!!!!!

[Frobby]

Brooks had a whopping 8 walk off homers in his very long career.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/66

The table you referenced shows how rare a walk-off hit truly is. Frank Robinson had the most in the last 50 years, and only averaged about 1.3 per season in his career. Eddie Murray -- who to me was the most clutch player I ever saw -- had less than one per season. So to me this shows that walk-off hits are not a good measure of how "clutch" or "unclutch" Tejada was.

[Trace21230]

The table you referenced shows how rare a walk-off hit truly is. Frank Robinson had the most in the last 50 years, and only averaged about 1.3 per season in his career. Eddie Murray -- who to me was the most clutch player I ever saw -- had less than one per season. So to me this shows that walk-off hits are not a good measure of how "clutch" or "unclutch" Tejada was.

The table is interesting but pretty much useless for the purposes of this discussion because it does not tell us how many opportunities the players had to earn a walk-off hit.

If Frank Robinson had 18 walk-off hits, I'd say he had at least twice as many opportunities that he didn't capitalize on (just a guess). So you're talking around 50-60 chances to have a game winning hit. That's a fair amount over a career.

Perhaps as a research project I will go back through all of Tejada's games with the Orioles and find out how many times he came up with the ability to win the game and compare it to how many times he actually won the game. I'd bet that he delivered in less than 20% of those situations, probably far less.

[Sports Guy]

The table is interesting but pretty much useless for the purposes of this discussion because it does not tell us how many opportunities the players had to earn a walk-off hit.

If Frank Robinson had 18 walk-off hits, I'd say he had at least twice as many opportunities that he didn't capitalize on (just a guess). So you're talking around 50-60 chances to have a game winning hit. That's a fair amount over a career.

Perhaps as a research project I will go back through all of Tejada's games with the Orioles and find out how many times he came up with the ability to win the game and compare it to how many times he actually won the game. I'd bet that he delivered in less than 20% of those situations, probably far less.

Once you do that, figure out what league average is.

[Frobby]

The table is interesting but pretty much useless for the purposes of this discussion because it does not tell us how many opportunities the players had to earn a walk-off hit.

If Frank Robinson had 18 walk-off hits, I'd say he had at least twice as many opportunities that he didn't capitalize on (just a guess). So you're talking around 50-60 chances to have a game winning hit. That's a fair amount over a career.

Perhaps as a research project I will go back through all of Tejada's games with the Orioles and find out how many times he came up with the ability to win the game and compare it to how many times he actually won the game. I'd bet that he delivered in less than 20% of those situations, probably far less.

Sounds like a big project. But how do you even count them? Obviously if you come up with the bases empty in the bottom of the 9th in a tie game, you can get a walk-off hit, but your odds (assuming you are a guy who hits 30 HR in 600 AB) are only 5%. Or, if you come up with a runner on 1st base, your odds improve to about 12-13% at best. With a runner on 2nd or 3rd, your odds are more like 30%. So 20% might actually be pretty good depending on the exact situations he was in.

I just look at Tejada's performance "close and late," defined as 7th inning or later with the team one run ahead, tied, or with the tying run at least on deck. In those situations while an Oriole (380 plate appearances over 4 years), Tejada hit .306/.379/.475. Pretty hard to fault that if you ask me.

[Sports Guy]

Sounds like a big project. But how do you even count them? Obviously if you come up with the bases empty in the bottom of the 9th in a tie game, you can get a walk-off hit, but your odds (assuming you are a guy who hits 30 HR in 600 AB) are only 5%. Or, if you come up with a runner on 1st base, your odds improve to about 12-13% at best. With a runner on 2nd or 3rd, your odds are more like 30%. So 20% might actually be pretty good depending on the exact situations he was in.

I just look at Tejada's performance "close and late," defined as 7th inning or later with the team one run ahead, tied, or with the tying run at least on deck. In those situations while an Oriole (380 plate appearances over 4 years), Tejada hit .306/.379/.475. Pretty hard to fault that if you ask me.

Whatever way he can to make it look like Tejada was no good.

[Gurgi]

Hernandez laid down a beautiful bunt and moved Jones up to third. Jones scores on Roberts base hit. He seems to be playing within himself and chipping in as much has he can.

[Old#5fan]

Click here for the only Gary Matthews walk-off homer of his Orioles career.

Just one. Matthews hit one walk-off homer for the Orioles, in a meaningless August game against the Devil Rays, matching two teams that were a combined 55 games out of first place. I'm not sure how that proves anything about him at all.

Outside of 2006 Gary Matthews hasn't resembled an All Star for more than a few weeks at a time.

I know for a fact he had at least two walkoff hits, both in the same season. He also excelled in close and late hitting situations and almost always came through in the 9th inning by getting on base and either driving in or scoring the winning run.

[JTrea81]

Luis is currently sporting an .802 OPS in the early going...

[BaltimoreTerp]

He also excelled in close and late hitting situations and almost always came through in the 9th inning by getting on base and either driving in or scoring the winning run.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=matthga02&year=2002

You are right. At least that's what the STATS say

[soweborefugee]

Luis is currently sporting an .802 OPS in the early going...

He's also walked three times.

That's two more than last year

[hoosiers]

Luis is currently sporting an .802 OPS in the early going...

I'm digging the walks. Is LH seeing more pitches per AB this year?

I expected him to do better than his historical numbers as he gets to peak age, but this might be the best seven game stretch of him professional life!

[Old#5fan]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=matthga02&year=2002

You are right. At least that's what the STATS say

I remembered him for being good at it but was challenged about it many times on another forum I used to post and that is the only reason I know the stats support what I say.

[Tank]

Jim Palmer ripped into Luis a little bit today when he got picked off at first. Said there was no reason for that. He wasn't stealing, saw the guy had a good move, and just made a mental mistake.

But other than that he had another good game. A sac bunt, a single, and a walk. He also played some solid defense. The saga continues...

[Oriole4Life]

He's a decent hitter and an excellent shortstop. I don't understand all the hate. Is he going to win the batting title? No. Is he going to hit situationally and get on base? Yes. Luis the Lasher!

[Mackus]

He's a decent hitter and an excellent shortstop. I don't understand all the hate. Is he going to win the batting title? No. Is he going to hit situationally and get on base? Yes. Luis the Lasher!

If he can be a "decent" hitter, then he'll be fine, or at least serviceable as our starting SS. Its just highly unlikely that he'll ever be a "decent" hitter. His minor league numbers the past two seasons would have ranked among the 10 worst individual seasons of the last 10 years if he matched them in the majors. He's been in the 550-575 OPS range in the upper levels of the minors. He's got absolutely no power and has never showed the ability to get on base at an acceptable clip.

He's hit well enough to justify being the starter in his brief stints in the majors. He hasn't hit well, but he's done better than his minor league numbers. He's even started drawing a few walks this season so far. If he can have a .625-.650 OPS, then he would only be costing us a win or so compared to an average player since his glove is so good. I think its unlikely he can post that .625-.650 OPS, but until we have a better option, he'll get the chance to prove me wrong.

I still wouldn't hesitate at all if the opportunity arises to go out and get someone who's peak upside is better than slightly below average.