Is Leyland going to make the HOF?

[Ohfan67]

Roch's post about Buck having the 30th most wins of any ML manager inspired me to check out the all time win leaders. Leyland ranks 15th on the list and seems to be much beloved by writers. I would think he gets in. BUT, Piniella and Mauch are ahead of him in wins and they seem unlikely to ever et into the hall. Any thoughts?

Also, I did a quick search but couldn't find any rules about how managers are voted into the hall. Do they have to be retired for a certain number of years? I would think so since some return to baseball. ???

[MurphDogg]

.506 lifetime winning percentage, 1 World Series ring and 3 Manager of the Year awards.

I don't think he should be in. If he is in, then Pinella would have to go in, probably Dusty Baker too.

[Ohfan67]

.506 lifetime winning percentage, 1 World Series ring and 3 Manager of the Year awards.

I don't think he should be in. If he is in, then Pinella would have to go in, probably Dusty Baker too.

I think you're right. If he got in, then it would totally be because the media liked him more. I thought he had a better record than Pinella, but he stayed in Pittsburgh too long. If he had bailed for a better organization earlier, then he would have a much stronger case. And if the Tigers had won at least one world series while he was there.

[DrungoHazewood]

Roch's post about Buck having the 30th most wins of any ML manager inspired me to check out the all time win leaders. Leyland ranks 15th on the list and seems to be much beloved by writers. I would think he gets in. BUT, Piniella and Mauch are ahead of him in wins and they seem unlikely to ever et into the hall. Any thoughts?

Also, I did a quick search but couldn't find any rules about how managers are voted into the hall. Do they have to be retired for a certain number of years? I would think so since some return to baseball. ???

The top 10 in wins are in the Hall. Four of 11-20, but then again half of them are active. Six of 21-30.

Bruce Bochy is the only 3-World Series winning manager not in, and he's active. Looks like 2 WS wins gets you a 50/50 shot. Earl, Cox, Durocher, Herzog, Barrow look like the only 1-WS winners without significant help from playing careers. Al Lopez and Wilbert Robinson got in with no Series but also had good-but-not-great playing careers.

Mauch doesn't make it because his career record is below .500 and he never won a Series and he managed the '64 Phils who were 6.5 up on September 20th and blew it.

So Leyland might go in if someone champions him. He's almost indistinguishable from Piniella.

[25 Nuggets]

The first stat that I like to look at, regarding team success anyway, is "Games above .500" which requires both win% and longevity. You pretty much have to manage at least a decade to get to 150 games over .500.

18 of the top 19 managers in this stat are in the Hall of Fame, though some are in as players or contributors (Fred Clarke, Cap Anson, Charlie Comiskey, Harry Wright). Davey Johnson is 15th all time (301) and Billy Martin is 20th (240). The best active manager in this stat is Mike Scioscia (currently tied with Martin with a chance to go up or down). All the way down to Ned Hanlon at #36 (149) it's a who's-who of HOF and near HOF managers.

- Lou Piniella clocks in at 40th (124) with more total wins (1831) than anyone around him, and his one World Series.

- Dick Williams is 42nd (120) and represents the bottom cutoff for any HOF case relying on career win%.

- Buck Showalter is in a race with Mike Matheny for 44th (104) and has a lot of seniority over him (more wins, smaller win%). Rankings for active managers can go up and down with each season. Expect Joe Maddon to surge this season.

So, here we have Jim Leyland sitting at 92nd with 41 games over .500. I guess his best comp is Ralph Houk:

Leyland - 22 seasons, 1769 wins, .506 win%, 41 g>500, 1 WS, 3 pennants, 8 playoffs

Houk - 20 seasons, 1619 wins, .514 win%, 88 g>500, 2 WS, 3 pennants, 3 playoffs (pre-wild card)

Houk is not in the Hall of Fame. The list of managers with long tenures like this and a relatively poor win% is actually quite low. Gene Mauch is not the best comp, he is under .500 as a manager and has no pennants; the ultimate compiler. Casey Stengel fits the description but has a managerial career unlike any other with Jekyll/Hyde career with/without the Yankees (worse than Torre). Then there's the unicorn that is Connie Mack.

In conclusion, I would say either the Hall invites all three of Piniella, Houk and Leyland, or none of them. Piniella has the best win%, and Houk the extra championship.