For the first time this season, the Orioles are now favored to win the AL East

[Filmstudy]

Well co-favorites anyway (9:20 PM on 6/26):

Orioles: 2-1

Red Sox: 2-1

Blue Jays: 2.25-1

Yankees: 15-1

Rays: 100-1

Those are the best prices for each team on Oddschecker, which has prices from 14 online books as I write this.

The vig in the aggregate line is approximately 4.7%, so the books/betting public put the Orioles chance to win the division at 31.8% with no juice.

I'm much less excited by this price than I was by the Orioles at 10-1 when they were 7-0, but the 38-30 record since has added creditibility. But as with all gambling, if you wait for full credibility, everyone else knows what you thought you knew.

[Frobby]

As of this morning, BP still favored Boston by a significant margin, with Toronto still the second favorite. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

[Machado13]

I guess the starting pitching makes people hesitate and understandably so. It will be very tough if anyone outside of Tillman doesn't step up. Gausman finally had a top of rotation start and needs to keep it going. Gallardo need him too

[TradeAngelos]

As of this morning, BP still favored Boston by a significant margin, with Toronto still the second favorite. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

And has us going 41-47 the rest of the way.

Yeah, right.

I am literally about to put even more money on the long odds because the lack of respect and value is just screaming for it.

It is so ridiculous, what is it going to take? 20 games over .500? 25?

[MurphDogg]

As of this morning, BP still favored Boston by a significant margin, with Toronto still the second favorite. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

An Orioles win coupled with a Blue Jays loss probably moves the Orioles ahead in BP projections, since there was a 0.4 win projected difference at the start of the day.

Fivethirtyeight has us as the favorites followed by Boston then Toronto. Fangraphs has it as Boston then the Orioles, with Toronto a distant third.

[weams]

[MurphDogg]

An Orioles win coupled with a Blue Jays loss probably moves the Orioles ahead in BP projections, since there was a 0.4 win projected difference at the start of the day.

Fivethirtyeight has us as the favorites followed by Boston then Toronto. Fangraphs has it as Boston then the Orioles, with Toronto a distant third.

BP now has the division at 42 percent Boston, 32 percent Baltimore, 22 percent Toronto, 4 percent NYY or Tampa Bay. Fivethirtyeight has us at 90 wins, Fangraphs at 88, BP at 87.

BP has us winning 2 more games than the Twins for the rest of the season. Seems legit.

[Ruzious]

Going forward, I think we have an offense equal to Boston's and probably better than anyone else - with Texas being close. Bullpen - I'd rate us just behind NY as best in AL - and NY may be trading a piece or 2. So, it comes down to starting pitching holding up just well enough. Can they do it? That's the 64K question.

[Spy Fox]

While we're talking odds: Two days later, today is the first day all year that Fangraphs' projection system has the Orioles with equal or better playoff odds than the Red Sox.

On OD, they had the Orioles at 12.6% playoff odds and the Sox at 73.1%. They are today tied at 67%, and 88 projected wins.

[terps19]

They cant do it without a substantial upgrade in their rotation.The window is closing too. Likely no Wieters/ and or Trumbo next year.

I think one of Wieters or Trumbo come back... just a hunch.

[Spy Fox]

They cant do it without a substantial upgrade in their rotation.The window is closing too. Likely no Wieters/ and or Trumbo next year.

Wait, I thought the window was closing when Chen, Davis, Wieters, and O'Day were leaving?

I think the window notion is exaggerated in sports in general, but even if we do have a window I don't think Wieters and Trumbo are the ones that close it.

[psagawa]

It's not disrespect, it is a flawed model that has consistently failed to accurately forecast the actual records of teams, and that seems to have specifically underforecast wins for the O's. There are clearly aspects of the game for which either BP has mistakenly underemphasized in their model construction or for which they have no viable data.

[accinfo]

They cant do it without a substantial upgrade in their rotation.The window is closing too. Likely no Wieters/ and or Trumbo next year.

I think Dylan Bundy could be that substantial upgrade in their rotation.

[LookitsPuck]

I think Dylan Bundy could be that substantial upgrade in their rotation.

He's thrown 33 innings 75 games through the season. If the innings limit is 75 (give or take) he has 39 innings left between now and then.

I don't think they make him start (yet) until possibly post-ASG. There are 12 games until the ASB, assuming he'll pitch once every 4-5 days, he probably will log another 6-8 innings.

So, 40 innings through 87 games. Will leave 75 games and 35 innings. Let's say they do a 5 IP/start scenario. That means he can make 7 starts. And he'll effectively be shutdown.

My gut is they don't even do that. They'll go with 3-4 IP from now until maybe the last month of the season and then try to throw him a few starts. Regardless, if the O's are fortunate enough to make the playoffs, Bundy won't be on it because of an innings limit. :shrug:

Unless you meant next year. And to that end, you *might* be right. But he'll still be limited to probably 130 IP at most. And that's assuming everything went well, he's healthy...and hopefully has his cutter back.

[accinfo]

He's thrown 33 innings 75 games through the season. If the innings limit is 75 (give or take) he has 39 innings left between now and then.

I don't think they make him start (yet) until possibly post-ASG. There are 12 games until the ASB, assuming he'll pitch once every 4-5 days, he probably will log another 6-8 innings.

So, 40 innings through 87 games. Will leave 75 games and 35 innings. Let's say they do a 5 IP/start scenario. That means he can make 7 starts. And he'll effectively be shutdown.

My gut is they don't even do that. They'll go with 3-4 IP from now until maybe the last month of the season and then try to throw him a few starts. Regardless, if the O's are fortunate enough to make the playoffs, Bundy won't be on it because of an innings limit. :shrug:

Unless you meant next year. And to that end, you *might* be right. But he'll still be limited to probably 130 IP at most. And that's assuming everything went well, he's healthy...and hopefully has his cutter back.

I was talking about next year. I don't expect him to start this year except maybe in Sept. As far as this year goes they have managed to get by with the starting pitching they have. The fact is that no one in this division has great starting pitching. If Gausman can be more like last start and Gallardo can pitch to an ERA in the low 4's then I think they that will be enough. There is no one that is attainable out there that I think is much of an upgrade. Bundy's upside in my opinion is better then anything you can probably get in return.