It's going to be a dogfight with Toronto and Boston

[weams]

Would you do Harvey, Mancini, Mountcastle, Sisco & Scott for Sonny Gray and Rich Hill?

Wouldn't you have to?

[weams]

Would you do Harvey, Mancini, Mountcastle, Sisco & Scott for Sonny Gray and Rich Hill?

I do think that better values could be found that would return as much.

[MdSooner]

I like your angle here. Sorry if you received a very negative response in the past. Not sure why such an opinion would draw ire.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I agree with the premise as well. Just go buy a pitcher or two or trade for them. Win now!!!!!!!!!!!

[spiritof66]

I thought before the season, and I still think, the BJs will win the decision, barring a run of injuries.

I now think Boston will be the biggest threat to the BJs -- if they add a real good SP or two decent ones.

That is, I see us winning the decision only if the BJs falter and the RS don't improve their pitching.

[weams]

I thought before the season, and I still think, the BJs will win the decision, barring a run of injuries.

I now think Boston will be the biggest threat to the BJs -- if they add a real good SP or two decent ones.

That is, I see us winning the decision only if the BJs falter and the RS don't improve their pitching.

And yet, the chances of winning at this point are much greater than what one would expect on the 2018+ horizon.

[LookitsPuck]

Whatever the case, the O's need to acquire at least one starter. I think thy can get by with Tillman, Gausman, insertnamehere, and Gallardo (if healthy). The 5th spot is just gonna have to be be a merry go round for the last 10 starts. Maybe Bundy, Despaigne and Worley can eek out a few wins there?

[JayThomas]

I'm sure I'm going to get killed for saying this. I said the same thing at the mid-point in 2012 and the responses nearly caused me to leave OH for good. But I believed what I said then and I believe it now, so here goes;

It's a good thing that the O's weakness is starting pitching. It's by far the easiest place for a team mid-season to affect immediate and significant improvement.

Hear me out on this before going all flamer on me...

The O's are 15 games above .500 despite the following;

17 starts from a starter with a 7.38 ERA

12 starts from a starter with a 5.97 ERA

9 starts from a starter with a 5.82 ERA

13 starts from a starter with a 5.22 ERA

That's a 6.00 ERA from starters in 51 of 87 starts for the Os this year. It bears repeating - despite this, the O's are 15 games over .500

That suggests that the rest of the team is really, really good to have carried four starters this bad to a .586 winning percentage for more than half a season.

Everyone is concerned that the Blue Jays and Red Sox will make a move and get even better. But to improve a team, you have to replace a player with someone better.

It will be hard for the Blue Jays to improve significantly, because their worst starter has a 4.89 ERA. Adding a league average starter won't move the needle much for them. Even adding a TOR starter will only be expected to make a marginal difference as it will slightly improve one rotation spot. For the Jays, it's going to be harder to improve.

But the O's? Assume for a minute we could magically wave a wand and add three 4.50 ERA guys to our rotation. That would represent a very significant improvement in the team in the second half. It's easy to improve on terrible players and gain games in the standings. So having all the O's worst performances concentrated in just three spots (#3, #4 and #5 starter) is actually an advantage.

It's the "delta effect". It's easier to improve a team with a few horrible players by replacing them with average / above average players than it is to improve a team that has a lot of average / above average players (e.g. the Blue Jays rotation). For the Blue Jays to improve, they need a great player. For the O's to improve we need to add average ones.

And imagine if DD were to make that unimaginable move and trade for a true TOR starter? How much better would the O's be replacing Jiminez and his 7.38 ERA with Rich Hill's 2.25 ERA?

So clearly its never good to have 3 / 5 ths of your starting rotation be this bad. But the silver lining is that it means the O's should be able to more easily improve than the Jays.

Unfortunately, the Red Sox are in a similar position. They have had terrible performances from 2 spots in their rotation all year. If they plug both of those holes at the trade deadline, they would seemingly be stronger than the Jays.

So I think Duquette has to make a couple of moves. He might rely on Gallardo to rebound in the 2nd half, but he has to put at least league average starters into the #4 & #5 slots if the O's want to have a fighting chance. The good news is that if he can make those moves, the team should be even better in the 2nd half than they were in the first.

In 2012 the O's found three quality starters mid-year to stabilize a rotation with 3 huge holes (Tillman & Gonzalez from the Minors, Saunders in trade) and rode them to a playoff berth. It will be interesting to see if DD can do it again this year.

Must spread rep.

Thanks for the work and the clear thinking.

On the broadcast yesterday Dan seemed pretty open to a piggy-back for one spot in the rotation. He specifically mentioned Wilson and Bundy. It think between Worley/Wilson/Bundy we put together a piggy-back.

We really don't have much hope if at least one of Ubaldo (unlikely) or Gallardo settle down and give us a 4.50 or less ERA. If one does, and Tillman and Gausman don't get hurt, then we only need to pick up 1 starter from outside the org. Goodby Mancini and Sisco.

Personally, I like what I saw from Miranda and from Aquino in their short stints. I'd be happy to see more of them in an intra-40-man rotation of the bullpen.

By the way, the bullpen hasn't been overused by Ubaldo's short stints as much as it might seem since Bundy's been on a starter's schedule essentially piggy-backing him already. The problem is that we're always behind by 4 or 5 when we turn over the baton. If we're near breakeven once or twice through the opposing lineup when we hand it off to Bundy we'll win most of those games.

[monarchO]

Boston might very well be the best team in the AL. They have a better offense. A better rotation. A slightly worse bullpen. The one thing is that they have a much better farm system with tradable assets to make their rotation much better.

I still think the Jays are the best. :shrug:

We have the best bullpen, manager, and defense in our division and lead the league in HR. We're not looking up b to them.

[tntoriole]

I'm sure I'm going to get killed for saying this. I said the same thing at the mid-point in 2012 and the responses nearly caused me to leave OH for good. But I believed what I said then and I believe it now, so here goes;

It's a good thing that the O's weakness is starting pitching. It's by far the easiest place for a team mid-season to affect immediate and significant improvement.

Hear me out on this before going all flamer on me...

The O's are 15 games above .500 despite the following;

17 starts from a starter with a 7.38 ERA

12 starts from a starter with a 5.97 ERA

9 starts from a starter with a 5.82 ERA

13 starts from a starter with a 5.22 ERA

That's a 6.00 ERA from starters in 51 of 87 starts for the Os this year. It bears repeating - despite this, the O's are 15 games over .500

That suggests that the rest of the team is really, really good to have carried four starters this bad to a .586 winning percentage for more than half a season.

Everyone is concerned that the Blue Jays and Red Sox will make a move and get even better. But to improve a team, you have to replace a player with someone better.

It will be hard for the Blue Jays to improve significantly, because their worst starter has a 4.89 ERA. Adding a league average starter won't move the needle much for them. Even adding a TOR starter will only be expected to make a marginal difference as it will slightly improve one rotation spot. For the Jays, it's going to be harder to improve.

But the O's? Assume for a minute we could magically wave a wand and add three 4.50 ERA guys to our rotation. That would represent a very significant improvement in the team in the second half. It's easy to improve on terrible players and gain games in the standings. So having all the O's worst performances concentrated in just three spots (#3, #4 and #5 starter) is actually an advantage.

It's the "delta effect". It's easier to improve a team with a few horrible players by replacing them with average / above average players than it is to improve a team that has a lot of average / above average players (e.g. the Blue Jays rotation). For the Blue Jays to improve, they need a great player. For the O's to improve we need to add average ones.

And imagine if DD were to make that unimaginable move and trade for a true TOR starter? How much better would the O's be replacing Jiminez and his 7.38 ERA with Rich Hill's 2.25 ERA?

So clearly its never good to have 3 / 5 ths of your starting rotation be this bad. But the silver lining is that it means the O's should be able to more easily improve than the Jays.

Unfortunately, the Red Sox are in a similar position. They have had terrible performances from 2 spots in their rotation all year. If they plug both of those holes at the trade deadline, they would seemingly be stronger than the Jays.

So I think Duquette has to make a couple of moves. He might rely on Gallardo to rebound in the 2nd half, but he has to put at least league average starters into the #4 & #5 slots if the O's want to have a fighting chance. The good news is that if he can make those moves, the team should be even better in the 2nd half than they were in the first.

In 2012 the O's found three quality starters mid-year to stabilize a rotation with 3 huge holes (Tillman & Gonzalez from the Minors, Saunders in trade) and rode them to a playoff berth. It will be interesting to see if DD can do it again this year.

Exactly. I agree with this. The quality of the rest of the team is underemphasized by the critics on the board. The rest of this team is heads away better than any other team in the American League and if our pitching in the 4 and 5 slots had not been in the catastrophic range we would be much further ahead. If anything, internal or external, stabilizes either the 4 or 5 slot or ideally both, we win this in a walk.

[bluedog]

Thing is, I don't think we can wave a magic wand and find those three 4.50 ERA starters. The market is very thin this year. So, is our team the easiest to improve by replacing bad pitchers with mediocre ones? Sure. But I don't know that we have what it takes to buy those mediocre ones.

In 2013, we had the same issue and acquired Feldman and Norris. We gave up Arrieta, Strop, Hoes, Hader and a draft pick to acquire them. I think the price will be higher this time around due to market conditions, and our talent pool to trade away is much weaker than last time.

I'm sure you are right about the market being thin.

One of them almost has to be Gallardo settling down and pitching well for the rest of the season. I don't think that DD will punt on only months after giving him a 2 / 20 deal. Barring injury, we're stuck with Gallardo year long and so he has to perform.

I think we can presume that Bundy will get starts down the stretch in the #5 spot.

So that leaves one big hole the team needs to fill at #3 / #4. If i were a betting man, I'd say it's going to be Rich Hill. The O's want a lefty, he's a rental, he's pitched like a TOR for a long stretch and he should be cheaper than guys like Odorizzi or Moore who are under contract long term.

[Frobby]

Schedule for the rest of July

BOS - 16 games

@NYY 3

SFG 2

MIN 4

DET 3

@LAA 4

TOR - 14 games

@OAK 3

@ARI 2

SEA 3

SDP 3

BAL 3

BAL - 17 games

@TBR 3

@NYY 4

CLE 3

COL 3

@MIN 1

@TOR 3

Sucks that we have another one-day trip and then have to turn right around.

We have a lot of road games in this stretch, but otherwise it's pretty balanced for us among contenders, .500ish teams and bad teams. Both Boston and Toronto have a pretty easy schedule in this stretch, so losing ground even if we do OK wouldn't be surprising.

[LookitsPuck]

The biggest issue with Rich Hill: he hasn't throw more than 76 IP (where he's at now) since 2010 (99 IP). And prior to that? 2007 (195 IP).

You'e really flipping a coin that he'll stay healthy. And with him being a rental if he flames out due to health...you really get absolutely zilch return back from him. That's a huge worry.

That said, he has some wipe out numbers going on right now. I just worry about what he'll cost for essentially a coin flip.

[weams]

The biggest issue with Rich Hill: he hasn't throw more than 76 IP (where he's at now) since 2010 (99 IP). And prior to that? 2007 (195 IP).

You'e really flipping a coin that he'll stay healthy. And with him being a rental if he flames out due to health...you really get absolutely zilch return back from him. That's a huge worry.

That said, he has some wipe out numbers going on right now. I just worry about what he'll cost for essentially a coin flip.

I think there is not a safe route at this point.

[webbrick2010]

We have the best bullpen, manager, and defense in our division and lead the league in HR. We're not looking up b to them.

AL Defensive Rank (by DER), Toronto is a better defensive team than the O's, as are many others:

1 Houston Astros AL 89 801 7323.0 3389 2441 907 41 78 35 15 .700 6 43 .988 .680

2 Toronto Blue Jays AL 91 819 7418.0 3472 2474 955 43 79 47 11 .810 18 30 .988 .709

3 Chicago White Sox AL 88 792 7107.0 3253 2369 840 44 75 42 13 .764 4 37 .986 .685

4 Detroit Tigers AL 89 801 7101.0 3317 2367 904 46 94 36 22 .621 3 26 .986 .679

5 Kansas City Royals AL 88 792 6972.0 3186 2324 816 46 67 26 28 .481 2 23 .986 .696

6 Texas Rangers AL 90 810 7254.0 3405 2418 937 50 111 44 16 .733 6 19 .985 .697

7 Baltimore Orioles AL 87 783 6957.0 3218 2319 851 48 85 38 20 .655 3 37 .985 .681

[webbrick2010]

Actually had it sorted incorrectly

The O's are the only better defensively than the Rays in the AL East:

Toronto Blue Jays AL 91 819 7418.0 3472 2474 955 43 79 47 11 .810 18 30 .988 .709

2 Cleveland Indians AL 88 792 7209.0 3356 2403 901 52 69 31 15 .674 7 27 .985 .704

3 Texas Rangers AL 90 810 7254.0 3405 2418 937 50 111 44 16 .733 6 19 .985 .697

4 Kansas City Royals AL 88 792 6972.0 3186 2324 816 46 67 26 28 .481 2 23 .986 .696

5 Seattle Mariners AL 89 801 7158.0 3286 2386 842 58 76 50 19 .725 6 32 .982 .688

6 Chicago White Sox AL 88 792 7107.0 3253 2369 840 44 75 42 13 .764 4 37 .986 .685

7 Boston Red Sox AL 87 783 7002.0 3167 2334 784 49 76 40 21 .656 32 29 .985 .683

8 New York Yankees AL 88 792 6942.0 3207 2314 844 49 61 56 15 .789 5 25 .985 .682

9 Baltimore Orioles AL 87 783 6957.0 3218 2319 851 48 85 38 20 .655 3 37 .985 .681