Mancini. Cisco, Trumbo, Alvarez and Wieters

[DrungoHazewood]

QO for Wieters and Trumbo' date=' let Alvarez walk, call up Mancini.[/quote']

Let Alvarez walk, no QO obviously, but consider resigning him on another 1/5 kind of deal. He's playing almost exactly the same as he did in Pittsburgh last year and in line with his career marks. As long as you have a roster spot a .780 OPS platoon guy for spare change isn't a bad thing to have around.

[Frobby]

Trumbo's 20s were worth less than Manny's 2015. But I'm sure his 30s will be spectacular and nearly decline-free now that he's hit his stride.

Proposition: Trumbo will post an .800+ OPS and hit 100+ homers over the next three seasons if he remains an Oriole.

Are you voting yes or no?

Trumbo has a .778 career OPS, and has never hit 100 homers in a three year span. He'll be 31 next year.

Despite all that, I'd probably vote yes on this proposition. OPACY and the other stadiums in the AL East are much more homer-friendly than the places he played before arriving in Baltimore, and he has adapted to it well.

Now, even assuming I'd vote yes, that doesn't mean I'd pay what it would take to keep him. His defense is abysmal in the OF and we don't have a spot for him at 1B. Obviously, you could move him to DH, but an .800 OPS DH may not be worth the money he'll get.

[Redskins Rick]

Proposition: Trumbo will post an .800+ OPS and hit 100+ homers over the next three seasons if he remains an Oriole.

Are you voting yes or no?

Trumbo has a .778 career OPS, and has never hit 100 homers in a three year span. He'll be 31 next year.

Despite all that, I'd probably vote yes on this proposition. OPACY and the other stadiums in the AL East are much more homer-friendly than the places he played before arriving in Baltimore, and he has adapted to it well.

Now, even assuming I'd vote yes, that doesn't mean I'd pay what it would take to keep him. His defense is abysmal in the OF and we don't have a spot for him at 1B. Obviously, you could move him to DH, but an .800 OPS DH may not be worth the money he'll get.

I agree with everything you said, except for the defense is abysmal.

His career say his wont maintain this, but watching him, he sure looks like he knows what he is doing at the plate.

Maybe this is his chance to shine, not unlike Davis coming to the Orioles from Texas.

[Can_of_corn]

I agree with everything you said, except for the defense is abysmal.

His career say his wont maintain this, but watching him, he sure looks like he knows what he is doing at the plate.

Maybe this is his chance to shine, not unlike Davis coming to the Orioles from Texas.

How would you describe it? Very very very poor?

It certainly isn't good, or average or even decent.

[aewell]

I agree with everything you said, except for the defense is abysmal.

His career say his wont maintain this, but watching him, he sure looks like he knows what he is doing at the plate.

Maybe this is his chance to shine, not unlike Davis coming to the Orioles from Texas.

We all agree his range is not good. His arm is decent. He can DH, 1st or RF which has value. But the biggest change is the ballpark. You have to factor in the ballpark a player plays in. It does matter.

MLB Park Factors - 2015

Oriole Park

#3 in runs

#2 in homeruns

[Redskins Rick]

How would you describe it? Very very very poor?

It certainly isn't good, or average or even decent.

Very poor is Demon Young.

I thought he is average, he has made some nice plays and he has blown some.

But, his bat and .OPS makes him so much more desirable than what we had last season.

[DrungoHazewood]

Proposition: Trumbo will post an .800+ OPS and hit 100+ homers over the next three seasons if he remains an Oriole.

Are you voting yes or no?

Trumbo has a .778 career OPS, and has never hit 100 homers in a three year span. He'll be 31 next year.

Despite all that, I'd probably vote yes on this proposition. OPACY and the other stadiums in the AL East are much more homer-friendly than the places he played before arriving in Baltimore, and he has adapted to it well.

Now, even assuming I'd vote yes, that doesn't mean I'd pay what it would take to keep him. His defense is abysmal in the OF and we don't have a spot for him at 1B. Obviously, you could move him to DH, but an .800 OPS DH may not be worth the money he'll get.

Absolutely no, not unless he has access to Nelson Cruz' medical care. Never bet on a player to be more valuable in his 30s than his 20s, not unless you have a very specific, unusual reason.

My guess is that he has a .750 OPS and averages 120 games a year from 31-35 with an OF UZR/150 of -15.

[Frobby]

Very poor is Demon Young.

I thought he is average, he has made some nice plays and he has blown some.

But, his bat and .OPS makes him so much more desirable than what we had last season.

As I've mentioned a few times, I think Trumbo is deathly afraid of banging into outfield walls, and he gets hesitant any time he's within 5 feet of the fence. And just generally, he's not very comfortable out there. His arm is very good, I will grant you.

BB-ref has him playing at a -12 Rtot/yr rate, fangraphs has him at -7.5 UZR/150.

[Can_of_corn]

We all agree his range is not good. His arm is decent. He can DH, 1st or RF which has value. But the biggest change is the ballpark. You have to factor in the ballpark a player plays in. It does matter.

MLB Park Factors - 2015

Oriole Park

#3 in runs

#2 in homeruns

Sure you have to look at them, but they are not consistent year to year so you can't put a lot of weight into them going forward.

[sportsfan8703]

We should have paid Miller, realized this and paid O'day. We should have paid Cruz, will we pay Trumbo? This is what worries me.

For the people that are not for re signing Trumbo just think what it took last year for DD to try and find replacements for Markakis and Cruz. It cost us Davies, Brault, Tarpley and poor production and millions.

We usually don't get FA's. So if you're not for re signing Trumbo you can't be in the don't trade prospects for an OF'er next offseason camp. You can't have it both ways.

Kim-LF, Rickard/Yaz-RF, sounds good but probably won't be. Especially since Kim is only on a two year deal. The OF options would then be the same guys as last year when we had to deal 3 prospects for solutions. Only thing that's changed is that Alvarez, Urrutia and Reimold will just be two years older. So if you don't want to resign Trumbo. You don't want to trade prospects for a replacement. You don't want to sign a risky FA, possibly even giving up a draft pick. Then how do we fill the OF next year?

Trumbo at 4/50-60 million is probably the safest play.

[El Gordo]

We should have paid Miller, realized this and paid O'day. We should have paid Cruz, will we pay Trumbo? This is what worries me.

For the people that are not for re signing Trumbo just think what it took last year for DD to try and find replacements for Markakis and Cruz. It cost us Davies, Brault, Tarpley and poor production and millions.

We usually don't get FA's. So if you're not for re signing Trumbo you can't be in the don't trade prospects for an OF'er next offseason camp. You can't have it both ways.

Kim-LF, Rickard/Yaz-RF, sounds good but probably won't be. Especially since Kim is only on a two year deal. The OF options would then be the same guys as last year when we had to deal 3 prospects for solutions. Only thing that's changed is that Alvarez, Urrutia and Reimold will just be two years older. So if you don't want to resign Trumbo. You don't want to trade prospects for a replacement. You don't want to sign a risky FA, possibly even giving up a draft pick. Then how do we fill the OF next year?

Trumbo at 4/50-60 million is probably the safest play.

Kim/Rickard LF, AJ CF. Reddick/Bruce/Saunders/Smith.

[aewell]

We should have paid Miller, realized this and paid O'day. We should have paid Cruz, will we pay Trumbo? This is what worries me.

For the people that are not for re signing Trumbo just think what it took last year for DD to try and find replacements for Markakis and Cruz. It cost us Davies, Brault, Tarpley and poor production and millions.

We usually don't get FA's. So if you're not for re signing Trumbo you can't be in the don't trade prospects for an OF'er next offseason camp. You can't have it both ways.

Kim-LF, Rickard/Yaz-RF, sounds good but probably won't be. Especially since Kim is only on a two year deal. The OF options would then be the same guys as last year when we had to deal 3 prospects for solutions. Only thing that's changed is that Alvarez, Urrutia and Reimold will just be two years older. So if you don't want to resign Trumbo. You don't want to trade prospects for a replacement. You don't want to sign a risky FA, possibly even giving up a draft pick. Then how do we fill the OF next year?

Trumbo at 4/50-60 million is probably the safest play.

Great points! The definition of insanity is doing the same thing expecting different results. That's what some on this board want. When we have production. We find reasons not to keep it around. Maybe because we are afraid to win a championship. Idk. It's not logical. Some would rather let go of what you have and RISK trying to acquire a player with less production even though you may have to concede more draft picks, which will cost more in the long run.

[aewell]

As I've mentioned a few times, I think Trumbo is deathly afraid of banging into outfield walls, and he gets hesitant any time he's within 5 feet of the fence. And just generally, he's not very comfortable out there. His arm is very good, I will grant you.

BB-ref has him playing at a -12 Rtot/yr rate, fangraphs has him at -7.5 UZR/150.

With all that being said we are in first place because of what? our pitching?

[aewell]

Sure you have to look at them, but they are not consistent year to year so you can't put a lot of weight into them going forward.

Really! You understand it changes based on the abilities of the players on the roster to take advantage of the ballpark? The Royals in the 80's would add speedy players to take advantage of the turf and fast infield. Tailoring your roster to the ballpark is a function of the GM responsibilities.

[Frobby]

Great points! The definition of insanity is doing the same thing expecting different results.

You know, you hear this shopworn phrase all the time, so I have a question. Say you rolled two dice and they came up snake eyes. Is it insane to roll those same two dice again and expect the result to be something other than snakeyes?

Honestly, sometimes that is how it is being a GM. Some years you gamble and get Nate McLouth (2012) or Steve Pearce (2014). Other years you get Travis Snider (2015) or a different version of Steve Pearce (2015). If you don't have the money to fill all 25 spots with consistently high performers, then sometimes you have to take some calculated risks and hope you don't roll snake eyes, as Duquette surely did in 2015. And by the way, Mark Trumbo was no sure thing, either (though a better bet than some of the 2015 outfielders).