How Many Games Will Orioles Win?

[UpstateNYfan]

What is BS's record in September? When rosters expand he is tough. The next 6 weeks are the problem. I see them at 91.

[Frobby]

We had 51 starts from pitchers with an aggregate 6.00 ERA in the first half. Even if we hit a bit over our heads, the starters definitely pitched well below our knees! (Can I use that as a saying??)

I think that if DD does his job and finds a way to get the team pitching help, an improvement in the rotation should more than cover any regression in offense.

As expressed in another thread, I think starting pitching is going to be extremely expensive to acquire. I'm sure DD will try hard -- maybe too hard.

As to whether, absent an acquisition, the same cast of characters can produce an ERA below 6.00 in the second half, I just don't know. If you look at the primary culprits by month:

Jimenez 3.91, 8.28, 7.23, 17.47

Wright 5.40, 4.70, 8.84, 3.86

Wilson 3.06, 4.26, 5.65, 24.00

Gallardo 7.00, ----, 4.41, 6.00

I can't say that trend line is all that encouraging.

[bpilktree]

81-81 is what I think they'll end up with.

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Thats up from your comment that they would be lucky to win 25 more games midway through the Dodgers series (we have 4 already) and then the remark we would would be lucky to get to 75 after the lost on Friday night. At this pace you will be predicting a 100 win season by the start of August.

[O's84]

89-73 nabbing the 2nd Wild Card.

[LookitsPuck]

They're 51-36 right now. 75 games to go.

Wilson started off great, but spiraled out of control.

Wright had a few gems, but largely has been awful.

Ubaldo has been terrible pretty much all season aside from a few lucky draws.

Gallardo has been lucky, but his peripherals look terrible.

So, we have Gausman and Tillman as the 2 only decent pitchers.

I think the O's acquire someone, but nobody great. Probably someone that will pitch well 50% of the time.

So, I'm going to play it simple. 75 games left, I think Gausman will finally start winning games (I'll say 50%), Tillman will win 65% of his, the #3 spot will win 50% of his, #4 only 35% and #5 only 25%.

And when I say "will win" I mean the team...not actually W/L for the pitchers.

So, here we go:

65% of 15 for Tilly: 10 wins

50% of 15 for Gaus: 8 wins

50% of 15 for Random: 8 wins

35% of 15 for Gallardo: 5 wins

25% of 10 for Random: 3 wins

TOTAL: 34 wins

At 51-36, that'll get us 85-77 going 34-41 in the second half.

That's probably pessimistic. I'm sure there's +/- 4 wins there. Based on no math whatsoever.

So:

Worst case scenario: 81-81 going 30-45 in the second half

Calculated scenario: 85-87 going 34-41 in the second half

Best case scenario: 89-73 going 38-37 in the second half

I can see us exceeding things if Gallardo learns how not to allow 2 baserunners an inning. And consistently have 92-93mph. But I doubt that happens. I'm very down on Gallardo as you can tell.

I know we'll acquire someone. But they won't be spectacular. But they don't need to be spectacular to out-pitch 60% of our starters.

[Malike]

Thats up from your comment that they would be lucky to win 25 more games midway through the Dodgers series (we have 4 already) and then the remark we would would be lucky to get to 75 after the lost on Friday night. At this pace you will be predicting a 100 win season by the start of August.

Yeah I had a chance to look at the schedule. I think they will win 30 more. I'm flattered you follow my every word. Scared even, but flattered nonetheless.

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[PaulFolk]

What is BS's record in September? When rosters expand he is tough. The next 6 weeks are the problem. I see them at 91.

With the Orioles, Buck is 101-74 in September and October in the regular season.

2010: 17-13

2011: 15-13

2012: 20-11

2013: 14-14

2014: 17-10

2015: 18-13

[tntoriole]

94-68. This team knows how to win baseball games. So does their manager.

[Satyr3206]

I agree the rotation has issues but the O's are in first place with those problem pitchers. The only way it could get worse is if they hire the batting practice pitchers from the All Star game. I hope.