Fangraphs: Ubaldo has been worth +0.6 fWAR this year

[Frobby]

This is a random stat I came across this morning that surprised me. Essentially, Ubaldo's FIP (4.90) and xFIP (4.96) are not all that terrible. Arguably, he's been terribly unlucky, with a .380 BABIP. So, fangraphs assigns him a +0.6 fWAR.

And yet, that just flies in the face of common sense for anyone who has watched him pitch. BB-ref has him at -1.6 rWAR, which seems much closer to the mark than fangraphs' +0.6 fWAR.

[Phantom]

This is a random stat I came across this morning that surprised me. Essentially, Ubaldo's FIP (4.90) and xFIP (4.96) are not all that terrible. Arguably, he's been terribly unlucky, with a .380 BABIP. So, fangraphs assigns him a +0.6 fWAR.

And yet, that just flies in the face of common sense for anyone who has watched him pitch. BB-ref has him at -1.6 rWAR, which seems much closer to the mark than fangraphs' +0.6 fWAR.

Bill James once said a good advanced statistic confirms 90% of what you know.

Honestly though, I think there is nothing to see here. Is it so hard to believe that Ubaldo has pitched terribly and has been unlucky?

[MagicBird]

Goes to show WAR is just something to be considered, but not relied upon. This essentially says more about war than it does about Ubaldo.

[Aglets]

I think Drungo says he likes fWAR better than rWAR for pitchers. Wonder what he'd say here. I can certainly believe that Ubaldo has been bad as well as unlucky, but I think that anything that rates him above replacement level is being...........generous.

[Frobby]

Bill James once said a good advanced statistic confirms 90% of what you know.

Honestly though, I think there is nothing to see here. Is it so hard to believe that Ubaldo has pitched terribly and has been unlucky?

I don't consider +0.6 to denote "pitched terribly." I do think he's been unlucky at times, but he makes a lot of his own bad luck by giving up free passes (so that "unlucky" hits score runs), getting behind in the count (batter has the advantage and is more likely to hit the ball hard), and working very slowly (defense back on its heels).

[DrungoHazewood]

I think Drungo says he likes fWAR better than rWAR for pitchers. Wonder what he'd say here. I can certainly believe that Ubaldo has been bad as well as unlucky, but I think that anything that rates him above replacement level is being...........generous.

In general, yes, I like fWAR better. Usually BABIP variances are much more luck than skill. Ubaldo has two numbers way out of line with the rest of his career - BABIP and BB/9. I assume there is some correlation. But his LD% isn't ridiculously high, as you might expect from someone who is constantly behind in the count and having to lob in BP fastballs to throw a strike. It's actually 21%, or a tick below last year.

I think it is reasonable to think he's pitching as poorly as 5.5 BB/9 suggests, but that's been exacerbated by a lot of balls falling in as well.

[DrungoHazewood]

Goes to show WAR is just something to be considered, but not relied upon. This essentially says more about war than it does about Ubaldo.

What do you mean by "not relied upon"? You shouldn't solely rely on any single source of information. If you throw out sources that have outliers or require additional investigation you'll quickly run out of ways to form opinions.

[atomic]

fwar is a worthless stat. Use BWar for pitchers.

[birrman54]

fwar is predictive, bwar judges results. Ubaldo is actually negative from what he's done, but given a generic pitcher with the same k/bb/hr %s you would expect them to be worth 0.6.

[DrungoHazewood]

fwar is a worthless stat. Use BWar for pitchers.

Can you explain your thinking here?

[DrungoHazewood]

fwar is predictive, bwar judges results. Ubaldo is actually negative from what he's done, but given a generic pitcher with the same k/bb/hr %s you would expect them to be worth 0.6.

The reason fWAR does a better job predicting future outcomes is that it doesn't credit or debit a pitcher for things that are heavily influenced by teammates or randomness. rWAR (or bb-ref RA-based WAR, if you prefer) credits the pitcher with more team-influenced outcomes.

rWAR basically says that Ubaldo is giving up a .380 BABIP and that's his fault and he gets dinged for that. fWAR says Ubaldo is giving up line drives at basically the same rate as Chris Tillman and Jake deGrom and Clayton Kershaw and credits that part of his record accordingly.

[Hallas]

The reason fWAR does a better job predicting future outcomes is that it doesn't credit or debit a pitcher for things that are heavily influenced by teammates or randomness. rWAR (or bb-ref RA-based WAR, if you prefer) credits the pitcher with more team-influenced outcomes.

rWAR basically says that Ubaldo is giving up a .380 BABIP and that's his fault and he gets dinged for that. fWAR says Ubaldo is giving up line drives at basically the same rate as Chris Tillman and Jake deGrom and Clayton Kershaw and credits that part of his record accordingly.

Does Fangraphs now make adjustments for quality of contact? They didn't used to do this.

[Ohfan67]

The reason fWAR does a better job predicting future outcomes is that it doesn't credit or debit a pitcher for things that are heavily influenced by teammates or randomness. rWAR (or bb-ref RA-based WAR, if you prefer) credits the pitcher with more team-influenced outcomes.

rWAR basically says that Ubaldo is giving up a .380 BABIP and that's his fault and he gets dinged for that. fWAR says Ubaldo is giving up line drives at basically the same rate as Chris Tillman and Jake deGrom and Clayton Kershaw and credits that part of his record accordingly.

rWAR seems to better correlate with the misery we have felt watching Ubaldo this season. I'm sort of serious.

[DrungoHazewood]

Does Fangraphs now make adjustments for quality of contact? They didn't used to do this.

I don't know. It may be as simple as the assumption that BABIP tends toward team/career/league marks and regressing outlier BABIPs towards some common point. I'd have to look up Fangraphs' implementation.

[DrungoHazewood]

rWAR seems to better correlate with the misery we have felt watching Ubaldo this season. I'm sort of serious.

I get that. Right or wrong, most fans judge metrics by how well they match their subjective experience. They want to release the guy with the 7.00 ERA and the 4.00 FIP, and reserve the right to crucify the GM when that same pitcher throws to a 3.75 ERA on his new team.