The Orioles would build a better team if they sold

[Redskins Rick]

I do not think the Orioles will be a playoff contender next year. Losing Trumbo and Wieters will hurt.

People did not think the team would be a contender in 2014, 2015, 2016.

[MurphDogg]

I do not think the Orioles will be a playoff contender next year. Losing Trumbo and Wieters will hurt.

Trumbo and Wieters have accrued approximately 2 rWAR while earning $25 Million. I think their production is replaceable at that price.

[Tryptamine]

Brach is twice as good as Smith.

I think you're underselling Smith quite a bit.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=14,58&filter=&players=6627,8048

[Redskins Rick]

Trumbo and Wieters have accrued approximately 2 rWAR while earning $25 Million. I think their production is replaceable at that price.

I have long argued that IMO, you cant put a value on a good solid catcher by looking at rWAR, or any WAR there is just too many aspects of the game that isn't covered by the metrics.

Again, just IMO

[Camden_yardbird]

Incomplete title on the OP. Should read "Orioles would be a better team if they sold...last year." As is, no way a first place team sells. If they did last year though they still would have Davies, plus some additional depth to deal from this year. Since they were the highest bidders for CD they probably would still have him as well.

[CanadianOriole]

I feel the exact opposite as the OP. We're in a mini-era where the Yankees are actually down - I was all for rolling up every minor leaguer with a pulse to try and get impact players to make a run this year. Glad to have Pearce back - but Wade Miley does not move the needle for me. In my case as a 39 year old - 1983 was long, long time ago to me. I'd like to make a World Series in my lifetime when I'm old enough to stay up and watch the night games. I understand there's many here older than that - and others younger who've never seen an Orioles WS appearance in their lifetime. It's that rare - go when the going is good. I wish we'd found a way to add even more impact players. In a division with NY and Boston I'm not at all convinced I'll live to watch an Orioles World Series appearance - I want to go for it any realistic chance we get. I feel like that's a bit of a grim, pessimistic perspective - but well over 5,000 regular season Orioles games have come and gone since '83 - let's get it done already.

[El Gordo]

Incomplete title on the OP. Should read "Orioles would be a better team if they sold...last year." As is, no way a first place team sells. If they did last year though they still would have Davies, plus some additional depth to deal from this year. Since they were the highest bidders for CD they probably would still have him as well.

Would they be in contention this year if they had sold last year?

[weams]

I think you're underselling Smith quite a bit.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=14,58&filter=&players=6627,8048

I think you are living in the past.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=14,58&filter=&players=6627,8048

[Rojo13]

Trumbo and Wieters have accrued approximately 2 rWAR while earning $25 Million. I think their production is replaceable at that price.

Finally, someone acknowledges what somebody costs. If Chris Davis was having a great year, my response would be, "It's a good thing. He costs 20 million +."

Take a look at $/WAR shown here:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/?team=BAL

It's the only reason why the Mariners traded Miley for Miranda. Miranda may not be as good as Miley but if he's almost as good and he costs 500k versus 10 million, they can use that 10 million on someone else.

Opportunity cost people. Econ 101.

[El Gordo]

The great thing about prospects is they are all Koufax and Ruth until you actually play them in the ML. So for a couple of years you can fantasize about that team of AS your going to have, until reality hit's the fan.

[Fliqan]

In 2 years (2018), we'll still have:

Gausmann

Bundy

Gallardo (if we want him, club option)

Wright/Wilson/Harvery/Sedlock ...

Jones

Schoop

Machado

Davis

Hardy (if we want him, club option)

O'Day

Givens

I wouldn't call that a laughingstock. Now if we aren't in contention in 2018, you sell Jones and Machado at the deadline. Hell if we aren't in contention next year, we can sell Brach, Britton and Tillman at the deadline. So we can replinish the farm in another year when we aren't in contention. The idea of doing it now is laughable. You'd ander the fans so much you'd kill the attendance for years to come as well.

Isnt Machado a free agent after 2017?

[GoldGlove21]

Trumbo and Wieters have accrued approximately 2 rWAR while earning $25 Million. I think their production is replaceable at that price.

I do not think that they are going to spend half of that.

[Moondoggie]

Would they be in contention this year if they had sold last year?

I see no reason why not. Last year's deadline was the perfect time for the Orioles to sell. They had virtually no chance of making the playoffs, but still tried to draw to an inside straight. Not a fire sale, mind you. But they should have dealt Davis and Chen. They could have gotten back young, controllable pitching or at least prospects they could have been flipping during the offseason or at this year's deadline. They still could have signed Davis back (although I would have advised against it, as I did against re-signing him when they had plenty of other options at 1B). They still could have made the same deal for Trumbo. But the haul they got back for Davis and Chen would likely have put them in a better position now.

It's like the old Kenny Rogers song said, you've got to know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em. Last year they should have folded 'em. This year they had to hold 'em. Their odds of making the playoffs (according to the Fangraphs/Baseball Prospectus playoff probability graph) on deadline day was 69.7 percent. Last year it was less than 5 percent. So last year was the time to sell.

[Machado13]

I see no reason why not. Last year's deadline was the perfect time for the Orioles to sell. They had virtually no chance of making the playoffs, but still tried to draw to an inside straight. Not a fire sale, mind you. But they should have dealt Davis and Chen. They could have gotten back young, controllable pitching or at least prospects they could have been flipping during the offseason or at this year's deadline. They still could have signed Davis back (although I would have advised against it, as I did against re-signing him when they had plenty of other options at 1B). They still could have made the same deal for Trumbo. But the haul they got back for Davis and Chen would likely have put them in a better position now.

It's like the old Kenny Rogers song said, you've got to know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em. Last year they should have folded 'em. This year they had to hold 'em. Their odds of making the playoffs (according to the Fangraphs/Baseball Prospectus playoff probability graph) on deadline day was 69.7 percent. Last year it was less than 5 percent. So last year was the time to sell.

Convincing argument, IMO. I feel like the royals could have been on the verge of doing the same this season but ultimately didn't. Personally, I believe it is a smart way to operate and allows you to compete more often.

[Bird Dog]

Isnt Machado a free agent after 2017?

Pretty sure it's after 2018.