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Looking ahead to 2017


ChuckS

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I agree Ubaldo gets a shot. To be fair, he has always been wildly inconsistent year to year. He could put up a 115 ERA+ in 2017 without surprising me. Past performance seems to have no impact on his future.

Trumbo and Wieters get QO. The latter might take it but I doubt it.

I'd look hard at acquiring a CF defensive upgrade. Extend Jones on the condition he is willing to play corner OF. Huge defensive bump for these pitchers. I'd only do this if a truly top flight defender is available.

Mancini, Walker, Sisco get cracks at making the team.

Roll with the pitchers we have.

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I agree Ubaldo gets a shot. To be fair, he has always been wildly inconsistent year to year. He could put up a 115 ERA+ in 2017 without surprising me. Past performance seems to have no impact on his future.

Trumbo and Wieters get QO. The latter might take it but I doubt it.

I'd look hard at acquiring a CF defensive upgrade. Extend Jones on the condition he is willing to play corner OF. Huge defensive bump for these pitchers. I'd only do this if a truly top flight defender is available.

Mancini, Walker, Sisco get cracks at making the team.

Roll with the pitchers we have.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

His average fastball velocity is down to around 90 MPH this year. I think that makes a big difference with him because command is always going to be issue.

Downtick in stuff like that and he may be toast. I wouldn't expect a big recovery in 2017.

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His average fastball velocity is down to around 90 MPH this year. I think that makes a big difference with him because command is always going to be issue.

Downtick in stuff like that and he may be toast. I wouldn't expect a big recovery in 2017.

Not expect. But not a surprise either.

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I agree Ubaldo gets a shot. To be fair, he has always been wildly inconsistent year to year. He could put up a 115 ERA+ in 2017 without surprising me. Past performance seems to have no impact on his future.

Trumbo and Wieters get QO. The latter might take it but I doubt it.

I'd look hard at acquiring a CF defensive upgrade. Extend Jones on the condition he is willing to play corner OF. Huge defensive bump for these pitchers. I'd only do this if a truly top flight defender is available.

Mancini, Walker, Sisco get cracks at making the team.

Roll with the pitchers we have.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You think his catcher defense is good enough to jump AAA and get a crack at the 2017 roster?

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I expect that Buck will get a really good look at Hart and Tolliver as lefty relievers in September. That will tell us if the O's need to add a lefty reliever next year.

Mancini is positioned to take Pedro's DH spot. He's cheaper and younger. It looks like Mancini will be called up in September to help the O's in the pennant race. Its will be interesting to see who goes off the 40 man roster to make room for him.

Probably need to add a lefty in right field to balance the lineup. Maybe a lefty catcher to share time with Joseph. Sisco will need to play at least the first half the season at AAA is my guess.

The pen is really crowded. In addition to Britton, O'Day, Brach and Givens the O's have Hart/Tolliver, Worley, Jimenez, and Ondrusek.

Wilson has proven he can pitch well from the pen but having an option probably keeps him at AAA until needed in the rotation or pen.

.

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Here is a guess at the additions and subtractions from a payroll stand point. I maybe a little low on the arbitration numbers. Why do you think?

At any rate even with letting the FAs go the team payroll still raises.

O's Free Agents

15.8m Wieters

9.15m Trumbo

5.75m P. Alvarez

1.3m Remold

1.583m Pearce

34.583m Total subtraction

Increases from current contracts

6.75m Miley from 2m to 8.75m)

2m Gallardo (from 9 to 11m)

1.5m Hardy (from 12.5 to 14m)

1.4m Kim (from 2.8 to 4.2m)

1m O'Day ( from 6 to 7m)

.5m Jimenez (from 13 to 13.5m)

13.15m total addition

Arbitration increase (Just my guess)

7m Machado (from 5 to 12m) (need to sign him long term)

4m Britton (from 6.8m to 10.8m) (Boras client - will not extend)

4m Tillman (from 6.2m to 10.2m) (need to sign long term)

4m Gausman (from .5m to 4.5m)

4m Schoop (from .5m to 4.5m)

1.4m Worley (from 2.6 to 4m)

1.7m Brach (from 1.3 to 3m)

1m Flaherty (from 1.5m to 2.5m)

1m Joseph ( from .5 to 1.5m)

29.1m total arbitration increase

42.25m increase of existing contracts and arbitration

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I expect that Buck will get a really good look at Hart and Tolliver as lefty relievers in September. That will tell us if the O's need to add a lefty reliever next year.

Mancini is positioned to take Pedro's DH spot. He's cheaper and younger. It looks like Mancini will be called up in September to help the O's in the pennant race. Its will be interesting to see who goes off the 40 man roster to make room for him.

Probably need to add a lefty in right field to balance the lineup. Maybe a lefty catcher to share time with Joseph. Sisco will need to play at less the first half the season at AAA is my guess.

The pen is really crowded. In addition to Britton, O'Day, Brach and Givens the O's have Hart/Tolliver, Worley, Jimenez, and Ondrusek.

Wilson has proven he can pitch well from the pen but having an option probably keeps him at AAA until needed in the rotation or pen.

.

Caleb Joseph will be a 31 year old catcher who has never had more than 355 plate appearances in a season. I don't see him as the starting catcher next season. Maybe he splits time with Pena or they bring in someone else (or re-sign Wieters).

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Caleb Joseph will be a 31 year old catcher who has never had more than 355 plate appearances in a season. I don't see him as the starting catcher next season. Maybe he splits time with Pena or they bring in someone else (or re-sign Wieters).

Joseph shared the catching duties with Hundley when Wieters was injured. It worked pretty well. Celeb does not have the frame to be the workhorse that Wieters is. Celeb wears down with too much use.

However Celeb is very important to the team if Wieters leaves. Celeb has the working knowledge with the pitchers. Sure Russell is a good catching coach but Celeb's knowledge as a playing catcher mean he is likely to step in and catch maybe 100 games or more.

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