Where does Gausman go from here?

[25 Nuggets]

He was the exact same pitcher the entire year (if anything he was a little worse in the second half) he just had his luck turn from bad to good. His xFip was 3.75 in the first half and 3.78 in the second half. If he can get his HR/FB down to league average, I think we can expect an ERA below 4 next season.

Agreed. Perhaps even under 3.50

[big_sparxx]

179.2 innings over 30 starts... the most on our team. averages just under six innings a game. Aaron Sanchez had 192 innings over 30 starts for Toronto and was 3rd in innings pitched. Stroman and Happ had more innings (over more starts though). I think something is missing with our starters (and has been) for a while. At some point we need our TOR guys to be innings eaters. If we compare him to Sanchez or even estrada who had 176 IP over 29 starts, you have to question why. Admittedly we have a great bullpen, one that we probably relied on far too often. Sure a lot of things go into that. Run support for one. If he has better support from the offense Buck may leave him out there an extra inning per game. Still, he led the team in innings pitched, and doesn't come close to other teams starters.

[Frobby]

179.2 innings over 30 starts... the most on our team. averages just under six innings a game. Aaron Sanchez had 192 innings over 30 starts for Toronto and was 3rd in innings pitched. Stroman and Happ had more innings (over more starts though). I think something is missing with our starters (and has been) for a while. At some point we need our TOR guys to be innings eaters. If we compare him to Sanchez or even estrada who had 176 IP over 29 starts, you have to question why. Admittedly we have a great bullpen, one that we probably relied on far too often. Sure a lot of things go into that. Run support for one. If he has better support from the offense Buck may leave him out there an extra inning per game. Still, he led the team in innings pitched, and doesn't come close to other teams starters.

Tillman was going at a pretty good clip until he got hurt. He had thrown 151 IP in 25 starts, and that included an opening day start that lasted only two innings due to a rain delay. Then he got hurt and in his final five starts he had one of 2.0 innings and another of 1.2 innings. He averaged over 6 IP/start in 2013 and 2014, and I think he would have again except that he got hurt.

As to Gausman, he's still learning how to be pitch-efficient. He averaged 6.20 IP/start in his final 15 starts, so hopefully he can equal that next year.

[Frobby]

Frobby - I'm curious what you think about this take on Gausman's year? It seems that you are relying more on intangibles in your assessment of Gausman. Not trying to be critical, but honestly curious about your view of Gausman.

I think he had a good season, and was very good over the final two months. I think stats like xFIP are useful indicators, but I do not feel he was the same pitcher in both halves and just had better luck in the second half. I feel his breaking ball got better as the year progressed and he was able to maintain his stuff deeper in games. Obviously, he did get better run support in the second half, but I think he pitched better independent of that fact. Maybe not a full run better as his ERA indicates, but noticeably better.

[Redskins Rick]

I think he had a good season, and was very good over the final two months. I think stats like xFIP are useful indicators, but I do not feel he was the same pitcher in both halves and just had better luck in the second half. I feel his breaking ball got better as the year progressed and he was able to maintain his stuff deeper in games. Obviously, he did get better run support in the second half, but I think he pitched better independent of that fact. Maybe not a full run better as his ERA indicates, but noticeably better.

I happen to agree with you, the more innings under his belt, I felt he looked better, and he kept his composure, even at times, when the offensive didnt provide for him.

[Tx Oriole]

First 15 starts: 1-6, 4.15 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, .316 BABIP.

Last 15 starts: 8-6, 3.10 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, .305 BABIP.

On the one hand, you could say he was the victim of bad run support in the first half, and got a little unlucky with his runs allowed considering his other peripherals, and his luck was better in the second half. On the other hand, you could say that he did a better job of bearing down in close games in the second half, got deeper into games and seemed more composed. Any way you look at it, the bottom line results were better in the second half.

So what do we think of Gausman for next year? His FIP (4.10) was much higher than his ERA (3.61), mostly because Gausman pitched very well with men on base (.207/.249/.323), which may not be a sustainable skill. You could look at his FIP and say you expect him to regress, you could look at his second half results and say you think he can sustain that over a full year, or you could look at his entire 2016 and say that this is about who you expect him to be, but perhaps with a better record due to better run support.

I'm an optimist. I thought Gausman's breaking stuff got much better as the season progressed and to me that was a big reason why he got better results in the second half. He doesn't have great breaking stuff, but it was respectable and he had better command of it, and that kept the hitters honest and not just up there guessing fastball or change-up or blasting the occasional hanging breaking pitch. I look for Gausman to take another step forward in 2017.

Well I hope so.

[oriolediehard]

He is a major part of our rotation.

[Can_of_corn]

Rotographs mention.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/quick-looks-gausman-manaea/

Notes

• Fastball: Sat at 92-96 mph with some release side run, maybe some sink. It’s still really straight and not very effective and performs as a below average fastball.

He reminds a lot of Michael Pineda. They both can get out hitters once they are ahead in the count. Since neither can throw their breaking balls for strikes, they are predictably forced to throw their fastball into the strike zone and get hit around. Both have ERA’s higher than their run estimators for this reason. I think Gausman will continue to post around a 4.00 ERA which will put him around the top 40 starters in the league.

[Ruzious]

I think he's easily the best and most valuable member of the O's staff. I'd love to see Harvey, Sedlock, Bundy, and Akin follow closely in his footsteps.

[Ruzious]

Rotographs mention.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/quick-looks-gausman-manaea/

92-96 doesn't sound right - unless he's just talking about his 2 seemer. Maybe I'm remembering just what I want to remember, but Gausman was often hitting 97 on a regular basis - late in games last season. Pineda has similar lifetime stats, but Gausman was clearly better last season and seems to be on the rise, while Pineda hasn't shown much improvement.

[Can_of_corn]

92-96 doesn't sound right - unless he's just talking about his 2 seemer. Maybe I'm remembering just what I want to remember, but Gausman was often hitting 97 on a regular basis - late in games last season. Pineda has similar lifetime stats, but Gausman was clearly better last season and seems to be on the rise, while Pineda hasn't shown much improvement.

If you look at the link he was discussing one game in particular (September 27th versus the Blue Jays). Maybe his velocity was a bit down that start?