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Dan Duquette: "...we've increased our payroll every single year that I've been here..."


AZRon

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Quoted from the interview on the "Hot Stove Show" on 105.7 The Fan, December 3, 2015. As to opening day player payrolls, not quite. Duquette joined the O's in November of 2011 and the opening day payroll for 2012 was down 3.4% from the previous year. Anyhow, here's the opening day player payroll history during Duquette's tenure plus the history for the same period for the MLB in total (courtesy of Baseball Prospectus): [TABLE]

<tbody>[TR]

[TD=class: xl27, align: right]Year[/TD]

[TD=class: xl24, align: right]Payroll $M[/TD]

[TD=class: xl24, align: right]% Delta[/TD]

[TD=class: xl24, align: right]MLB Total $B[/TD]

[TD=class: xl24, align: right]% Delta[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl27, align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: xl24, align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: xl24, align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: xl24, align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: xl24, align: right][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2016[/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]148[/TD]

[TD=class: xl26, align: right]24.6%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]3.9[/TD]

[TD=class: xl26, align: right]4.0%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2015[/TD]

[TD=align: right]119[/TD]

[TD=class: xl26, align: right]10.2%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]3.8[/TD]

[TD=class: xl26, align: right]8.7%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2014[/TD]

[TD=align: right]108[/TD]

[TD=class: xl26, align: right]17.4%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]3.5[/TD]

[TD=class: xl26, align: right]8.2%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2013[/TD]

[TD=align: right]92[/TD]

[TD=class: xl26, align: right]8.2%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]3.2[/TD]

[TD=class: xl26, align: right]5.9%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2012[/TD]

[TD=align: right]85[/TD]

[TD=class: xl26, align: right]-3.4%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]3.0[/TD]

[TD=class: xl26, align: right]4.8%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2011[/TD]

[TD=align: right]88[/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]2.9[/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[/TR]

</tbody>[/TABLE]

From the Baseball Prospectus Website, here's the payroll tabulations for each of the AL East teams over the same period: [TABLE]

<tbody>[TR]

[TD=class: xl27, align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: xl27, colspan: 3, align: right]Opening Day Payrolls in $M[/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=width: 64, align: right][/TD]

[TD=width: 64, align: right][/TD]

[TD=width: 64, align: right][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl26, align: right]Year[/TD]

[TD=class: xl24, align: right]Orioles[/TD]

[TD=class: xl24, align: right]% Delta[/TD]

[TD=class: xl24, align: right]Yankees[/TD]

[TD=class: xl24, align: right]% Delta[/TD]

[TD=class: xl24, align: right]Red Sox[/TD]

[TD=class: xl24, align: right]% Delta[/TD]

[TD=class: xl24, align: right]Blue Jays[/TD]

[TD=class: xl24, align: right]% Delta[/TD]

[TD=class: xl24, align: right]Rays[/TD]

[TD=class: xl24, align: right]% Delta[/TD]

[TD=class: xl24, align: right]AL East[/TD]

[TD=class: xl24, align: right]% Delta[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2016[/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]148[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]24.6%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]228[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]4.6%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]198[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]9.5%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]137[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]8.6%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]67[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]-13.7%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]778[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]7.9%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2015[/TD]

[TD=align: right]119[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]10.2%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]218[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]9.7%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]181[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]10.6%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]126[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]-8.2%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]77[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]0.6%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]721[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]5.4%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2014[/TD]

[TD=align: right]108[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]17.4%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]199[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]-13.5%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]163[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]8.5%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]137[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]7.4%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]77[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]24.1%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]684[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]3.4%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2013[/TD]

[TD=align: right]92[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]8.2%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]229[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]7.6%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]151[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]-14.0%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]128[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]52.6%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]62[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]-2.7%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]662[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]6.6%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2012[/TD]

[TD=align: right]85[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]-3.4%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]213[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]2.7%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]175[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]5.7%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]84[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]19.1%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]64[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]51.8%[/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]621[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]8.2%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2011[/TD]

[TD=align: right]88[/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]207[/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]166[/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]70[/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]42[/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]574[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl26, align: right]Since[/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl28, align: right]2011[/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]68.5%[/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]9.8%[/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]19.3%[/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]94.5%[/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]59.1%[/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]35.6%[/TD]

[/TR]

</tbody>[/TABLE]

[TABLE=width: 192]

<tbody>[TR]

[TD=class: xl26, width: 64, align: right]Year[/TD]

[TD=class: xl24, width: 64, align: right]AL East[/TD]

[TD=class: xl24, width: 64, align: right]% Delta[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2016[/TD]

[TD=class: xl27, align: right]778[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]7.9%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2015[/TD]

[TD=class: xl27, align: right]721[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]5.4%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2014[/TD]

[TD=class: xl27, align: right]684[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]3.4%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2013[/TD]

[TD=class: xl27, align: right]662[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]6.6%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2012[/TD]

[TD=class: xl27, align: right]621[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]8.2%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2011[/TD]

[TD=class: xl27, align: right]574[/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl26, align: right]Since[/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl27, align: right]2011[/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: xl25, align: right]35.6%[/TD]

[/TR]

</tbody>[/TABLE]

The Orioles opening day team payroll for 2016 was $148.57M. That exceeded the 2015 figure by 24.8% and was the largest increase during Dan Duquette's tenure. It was also the 4th consecutive annual increase and represents a gain of 68.8% since he assumed his duties in November, 2011. This compares with an increase of 35.6% for all of MLB. The average annual increase is 11% for the Orioles and 6.3% for MLB. Later this week, in a separate post, I will be presenting the current status of next year's projected opening day payroll. That total is now at $151.25M. That means that Duquette has the following amounts left to spend under the below listed scenarios:

[TABLE=width: 371]

<colgroup><col><col><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]

[TD]Assumption

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]Assumed Payroll $M

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$M Left To Spend[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]No Change[/TD]

[TD=align: right]148.3[/TD]

[TD=align: right]-2.9[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]MLB Average Increase[/TD]

[TD=align: right]156.0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4.8[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]O's Average Increase[/TD]

[TD=align: right]160.3[/TD]

[TD=align: right]9.1[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Same Delta as 2016[/TD]

[TD=align: right]184.8[/TD]

[TD=align: right]33.6[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]10% Delta[/TD]

[TD=align: right]163.2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]11.9[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]20% Delta[/TD]

[TD=align: right]178.0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]26.7[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]30% Delta[/TD]

[TD=align: right]192.8[/TD]

[TD=align: right]41.6[/TD]

[/TR]

</tbody>[/TABLE]

Please post your comments, questions and predictions in this thread -- please refrain from squabbling over the "accounting" for salary deferrals. Last year, few posters anticipated the significant increase that Dan Duquette engineered. I am going on record as expecting another increase this year -- perhaps, in the 15% - 20% area.

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Bottom line, I don't think anyone can make a realistic argument that the Orioles aren't making an effort to compete. They've put their money where their mouth is. People can debate if they're spending it wisely, but there's no doubt they're spending it.

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do you live in a totally negative world?

I know what I have seen so far.

I know they are not likely to grow a whole rotation.

I know they are not going to be fishing in deep waters for the big fish.

Would you be at all surprised to see Dan go down that road again?

My comment was an attempt to add some levity to the proceedings but at the same time, yes I expect it to happen if Dan thinks the 2018 can be competitive.

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According to The Baseball Cube the 1993 Orioles payroll was $26M. That's the year Angelos bought the team. By the same source it reached $70M by 1998, almost tripling in five years. But then over the next 14 years the payroll never topped $81M (small discrepancy with the other sources here), actually declining in inflation-adjusted terms. Now in the last five years payroll has nearly doubled. It's a strange timeline, with many years of stagnation bookended by almost hyperinflationary periods.

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It's really hard to guess what the 2017 payroll will be. If I'm guessing, then I'd say a 5-10% increase.

Yep. All bets are off considering what happened last offseason. It makes it harder for us to play armchair GM and say they need to trade Britton to free up his salary, etc.

If I had to guess, I think it's clear that they are "all-in" for 2017-2018. I wouldn't expect a jump to $200MM, but I don't think something like $160-170MM is necessarily out of the question. There's a lot of money coming off the books after 2017, so it opens up some additional short- or long-term contract scenarios.

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