Update: O's sign Trumbo to 3yr/$37 mil deal

[backwardsk]

17 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

And yet the O's/DD just love to throw money at 30 something players past their prime. He did it with Hardy and it was a mistake, he did I with O'day and it was a mistake, he did It with Davis and it was a tragic mistake, and now he has done it with Trumbo. None of these guys did/will even remotely approach their production of the years leading up to their extensions. The O's should have a very happy content roster.

Winning will do that.

[webbrick2010]

14 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

And yet the O's/DD just love to throw money at 30 something players past their prime. He did it with Hardy and it was a mistake, he did I with O'day and it was a mistake, he did It with Davis and it was a tragic mistake, and now he has done it with Trumbo. None of these guys did/will even remotely approach their production of the years leading up to their extensions. The O's should have a very happy content roster.

Will they never learn

JJ Hardy, has managed to play 114 & 115 games, with an OPS+ of 54 and 88 while banking 28 million, owed min of 16 million more

Darren O'day managed 31 innings to a 3.77 ERA  and 4.57 FIP, while pocketing 6 million, owed 25 million out to his age 36 season

Davis managed a 792 OPS and 107 OPS+ in exchange for a cool 23 million. He is a lock to lead the majors in K's as long as an O's manager can stomach to write him into the lineup every day

And now Trumbo....

[MurphDogg]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

So someone has to go off the 40-man roster so who goes?

I'm guessing Christian Walker, T.J. McFarland, or Logan Ondrusek is DFA'd. Probably Walker at this point since he's about as redundant as it gets in the system right now.

 

Last man in, first man out I guess. I would have preferred DFAing Christian Walker, maybe Adam Walker can sneak through waivers. Interesting player with 202 strikeouts in 478 AAA at-bats.

[pcbothwel]

12 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

And yet the O's/DD just love to throw money at 30 something players past their prime. He did it with Hardy and it was a mistake, he did I with O'day and it was a mistake, he did It with Davis and it was a tragic mistake, and now he has done it with Trumbo. None of these guys did/will even remotely approach their production of the years leading up to their extensions. The O's should have a very happy content roster.

The Cardinals signed Brett Cecil to the same contract (4/31M) as O'Day and I dont think Cecil is as good. Hell, Melancon has been about the same as O'Day and he signed for DOUBLE the amount (4/62M). I understand people being disappointed that O'Day wasnt as good this year and injured, but he had a solid 5 year track record and was flat out dominant the two year prior to the contract.

I would also understand if, for instance, Manny, O'Day, and Trumbo were all FA's at the same time and instead of giving Manny 35M, we let him walk and signed O'Day/Trumbo for 20M... But that hasnt happened.

We have a good team and while people argue that we simply paid to keep the same team around, there forgetting the fact that Bundy, Miley, Gausman, and Ubaldo all figure to be better than last year, even if Tillman doesnt improve.

Also, we are built to compete now.... so why not take a shot. Serious question, if we begin to fall apart and need to become sellers next winter or the 2018 deadline...which of the below players are not a positive asset? As in, would we have to pay some money to get another team to take them and give us a prospect...

Davis - Maybe, but not if he turns in a season like 2015... he then would be positive

Jones - 1/17M (2018), positive

Hardy - 1/14, positve... and if he isnt/or he is hurt this year, then we couldnt get the Vesting option anyway

Trumbo - 2/22M, positive...and with a little regression, he is simply neutral. 

Machado - Uhhh yeah, positive

Britton - Positive

Brach - Positive

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, backwardsk said:

For the moment, yes.  But in the future, instead of having a million or two in dead money here or there, we're going to have 10M+ in payroll for guys not on the team.

Most of the money has to be put into escrow on July 1 of the second season after the money was earned.   So for example, deferred comp from 2015 for Hardy and Jimenez will be put into escrow on July 1, 2017 (at a discount agreed to in the CBA that assumes the money will be invested while in escrow).    So, it's not like the deferred compensation just builds and builds until it comes due and then the team has a whopping bill to pay.

[weams]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

So someone has to go off the 40-man roster so who goes?

I'm guessing Christian Walker, T.J. McFarland, or Logan Ondrusek is DFA'd. Probably Walker at this point since he's about as redundant as it gets in the system right now.

 

Orioles officially announce the Trumbo 3-year deal. DFA OF Adam Walker

 

Per Dan Connolly. 

[weams]

What the deferred  comp does is help with the team debt ratio. In these lean times. 

[Frobby]

42 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Query of all players from 2005-2015, 140+ games, OPS+ between 110-130 in their age 30 season.  Trumbo is in the middle with a 120 OPS+. 35 players in the result.

At 31 the median OPS+ was 112, games 145.

At 32 it's 97 and 129.

At 33 it's 85 and 81.

To be honest, I'm shocked that the decline rate is that high.    How many players fit your criteria?   What was their median/mean career OPS+ through the 120 OPS+ season?   And was Trumbo really in the middle, or were there more 110-120 players in the sample than 120-130 players?   (Logically, I'd expect there to be more in the 110-120 range.)

I do see that this team is set up to hit a wall at some point.    The average age of the team was slightly below league average in 2016 and each of the last few years, but will probably be above league average in 2017.     The farm system isn't supplying clear answers and Duquette seems unwilling to take chances on the borderline guys like Mancini.    But I'm just going to enjoy the ride for as long as it lasts, rather than ruining the experience by worrying about the long term.    

[weams]

Roch quotes Dan Duquette

Quote

“We were trying to sign Mark in an area where he could be valuable to the club through the whole contract and we were able to accomplish that,” Duquette said. “We also factored in the value of the draft pick in our determination, but we were swayed by having a competitive team on the field.

“We still have several draft picks. We have a first round pick, plus a bonus pick. We thought it was important to field an intensely competitive team for the fans for 2017, so that’s ultimately why we ended up doing the deal.”

 

[TradeAngelos]

51 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Most of the money has to be put into escrow on July 1 of the second season after the money was earned.   So for example, deferred comp from 2015 for Hardy and Jimenez will be put into escrow on July 1, 2017 (at a discount agreed to in the CBA that assumes the money will be invested while in escrow).    So, it's not like the deferred compensation just builds and builds until it comes due and then the team has a whopping bill to pay.

 I am so sick of seeing this so I might as well  post the entire CBA section. That money does NOT need to be "funded" with cash. It can be funded with literally any unencumbered "asset" the club has. They also have a 2m deductible allowance per year. Read the bolded part.

Quote

 

Club, in an amount equal to the present value of the total deferred compensation obligation, on or before the second July 1 following the championship season in which the deferred compensation is earned. For purposes of this Article XVI, full funding of the present value of deferred compensation obligations shall mean that the Club must have funded, for the duration of and without interruption in each year, the current present value of the then outstanding deferred payments, discounted by 5% annually. If the prime interest rate in effect at The J.P. Morgan Chase Bank on the immediately preceding November 1 is 7% or higher, the Parties shall meet and confer regarding this Article XVI discount rate and may, with due notice to the Clubs, amend such discount rate effective the next succeeding July 1. Notwithstanding the above funding requirement, each Club shall be entitled to an annual deductible amount of deferred compensation which need not be funded for Contracts executed before December 11, 2011.

Such deductible amount shall be applied to the aggregate of Uniform Player’s Contracts executed during a given Basic Agreement period before December 11, 2011, and shall be in an amount equal to the lesser of $2,000,000 or the present value of the total deferred compensation obligations owed by a Club pursuant to Uniform Player’s Contracts executed during a given Basic Agreement period before December 11, 2011. The deductible amount applicable to Uniform Player’s Contracts signed during a given Basic Agreement period before December 11, 2011 is applied against the Club’s current aggregate deferred compensation funding obligations from Uniform Player’s Contracts signed during that Basic Agreement period and not any particular Uniform Player’s Contract(s).

Unless the Uniform Player’s Contract provides otherwise, a Club may fund deferred compensation obligations in such manner as it elects, provided that: (a) the funding method used by the Club must be such that the amount(s) funded are exclusively for the uses and purposes of satisfying the deferred compensation obligation(s) being funded; (b) the amount(s) funded are maintained in the form of unencumbered assets comprising cash or cash equivalents and/or registered and unrestricted readily marketable securities, unless a Club obtains the Parties’ prior written authorization of an alternative form; and (c) such amount(s) funded are subject to the claims of the Club’s general creditors.

Each Club shall certify quarterly to the Office of the Commis- 76 sioner by January 31, April 30, July 31, and October 31 of each year (and the Office of the Commissioner shall provide such certifications to the Association within 30 days of their receipt) the manner in which its deferred compensation obligations that were required to be funded by the immediately preceding July 1 have been funded. In addition, upon each quarterly certification, each Club shall provide to the Office of the Commissioner all records relating to its deferred compensation funding arrangements, and the Office of the Commissioner shall supply any such records to the Association upon request.

 

That is why they keep deferring money. Because they don't have to pay it out IN CASH until who knows when, but it isn't within a year. Or anything close. The team has probably a hundred million in "unencumbered assets" to use to cover the "funding". 

[weams]

9 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

 I am so sick of seeing this so I might as well  post the entire CBA section. That money does NOT need to be "funded" with cash. It can be funded with literally any unencumbered "asset" the club has. They also have a 2m deductible allowance per year. Read the bolded part.

That is why they keep deferring money. Because they don't have to pay it out IN CASH until who knows when, but it isn't within a year. Or anything close. The team has probably a hundred million in "unencumbered assets" to use to cover the "funding". 

You do not have a copy of the CBA. You don't.

[weams]

Just now, weams said:

You do not have a copy of the CBA. You don't.

Also...

 

Quote

such amount(s) funded are subject to the claims of the Club’s general creditors.

 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

 I am so sick of seeing this so I might as well  post the entire CBA section. That money does NOT need to be "funded" with cash. It can be funded with literally any unencumbered "asset" the club has. They also have a 2m deductible allowance per year. Read the bolded part.

That is why they keep deferring money. Because they don't have to pay it out IN CASH until who knows when, but it isn't within a year. Or anything close. The team has probably a hundred million in "unencumbered assets" to use to cover the "funding". 

You clearly have a different interpretation of "unencumbered assets" than I do, reading that.  It's cash, cash equivalents (which usually means money market funds), or marketable securities.   And "unencumbered" means they aren't pledged as security to the club's creditors.    It all comes down to money/liquid assets that the team otherwise could spend or pledge as collateral for other purposes, but has to be set aside to fund the liability to the player.    So I stand by my point.   

[weams]

Just now, Frobby said:

You clearly have a different interpretation of "unencumbered assets" than I do, reading that.  It's cash, cash equivalents (which usually means money market funds), or marketable securities.   And "unencumbered" means they aren't pledged as security to the club's creditors.    It all comes down to money/liquid assets that the team otherwise could spend or pledge as collateral for other purposes, but has to be set aside to fund the liability to the player.    So I stand by my point.   

I am fully on board with your interpretation. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, weams said:

Also...

 

 

What that phrase means is that if the team goes bankrupt, the general creditors have the same claim to those funds as the player does.    But it can't be pledged as collateral to any particular creditor.