How Many Stats Guru's Predicted That....

[Old#5fan]

Jay Payton would have four homers as of May 17th in a reserve LF role and Luke Scott three as the starting LFer?

This is why I think prediction of what will happen by strictly using past stats is an exercise in futility and essentially a worthless endeavor and not any better than a guess. Perfect example right here.

Payton is more of a homer/power guy this season than Scott. Why is this so statistical experts? Some where ready to swap Payton for Terrero just a couple of days ago.

Why, Why WHY?:laughlol::scratchchinhmm:

[Florida_Osfan]

This is why I think prediction what will have by past stats is an exercise in futility and essentially a worthless endeavor and no better than a guess. Perfect example right here.

While I agree that stats are sometimes overvalued by some on this board, to describe them as a "worthless endeavor" is pretty reaching for any kind of argument. I think all you've proven - at this point - is that stats have to be taken with a grain of salt. Sometimes players have up and down weeks, months, and even years that are contrary to long term stats. But you're using short term numbers and that's the problem.

You have a point - but I don't think Scott's under performance proves people were wrong to use / be excited about his long term stats.

[snatch311]

Isn't Scott's OPS still .100 points higher?

[The Rick]

Isn't Scott's OPS still .100 points higher?

Scott's OPS is .131 higher than Payton's.

If you're judging Payton only by home runs, you should delete this thread. He's had a good week, and i'll take it. I'm happy we're getting this much production out of Payton, but the fact is his OPS is still .641.

Here's yet another ridiculous thread that will inevitably last 10 pages with people going back and forth and OldFan never admitting he's wrong.

[Crazysilver03]

Scott's OPS is .131 higher than Payton's.

If you're judging Payton only by home runs, you should delete this thread. He's had a good week, and i'll take it. I'm happy we're getting this much production out of Payton, but the fact is his OPS is still .641.

Here's yet another ridiculous thread that will inevitably last 10 pages with people going back and forth and OldFan never admitting he's wrong.

You are right.

So what if Payton has more homeruns than Scott right now. Scott has had two in the last week so his power is coming around. No one predicted Payton would have more homeruns than Scott. especially at the end of the season.

The problem here is saying in the middle of the season. No stats people predict for the middle of the season, just because there are so many variables, but you can predict end of the year totals, just because so many people have hot and cold streaks.

[Remember The Alomar]

I never understood these type of threads that were made purely to bait people who enjoy/use stats.

I subscribe to BP, read Bill James books, and generally believe that by using advanced statistics you'll be more informed/intelligent about baseball, but on the other hand I understand that its not everyones cup of tea.

No one here is force feeding you to use stats, if you don't like them just ignore them. I don't attack you for using your ever sharp eyes and you all knowing gut to form your opinions, so why bait others like this?

I'm not mad or enraged like others will be at this post but it's just somewhat childish in an "I TOLD YOU SO" fashion.

[davearm]

"Stat gurus" don't fixate on things like HR.

They tend to migrate to more meaningful rate stats like OPS and EqA that illustrate how much better Scott has been.

[TyCobb]

Jay Payton would have four homers as of May 17th in a reserve LF role and Luke Scott three as the starting LFer?

This is why I think prediction of what will happen by strictly using past stats is an exercise in futility and essentially a worthless endeavor and not any better than a guess. Perfect example right here.

Payton is more of a homer/power guy this season than Scott. Why is this so statistical experts? Some where ready to swap Payton for Terrero just a couple of days ago.

Why, Why WHY?:laughlol::scratchchinhmm:

anomaly deviation from the common rule

Using your logic, the odds of Payton hitting 100 hrs for the year or 5 hrs for the year would be equal.

Just laughable.

[DrungoHazewood]

Jay Payton would have four homers as of May 17th in a reserve LF role and Luke Scott three as the starting LFer?

This is why I think prediction of what will happen by strictly using past stats is an exercise in futility and essentially a worthless endeavor and not any better than a guess. Perfect example right here.

Payton is more of a homer/power guy this season than Scott. Why is this so statistical experts? Some where ready to swap Payton for Terrero just a couple of days ago.

Why, Why WHY?:laughlol::scratchchinhmm:

I've seen the foolishness of my ways, and I've already stopped using all numbers. I now only describe baseball with poetry, and I predict the outcome of at bats and games using the patterns in my wife's tea leaves at breakfast.

[Old#5fan]

People are taking this thread wrong so far by most of their responses. I wasn't trying to bait anyone or make stats people irritated, I was just trying to illustrate that many times they are quite wrong. Most had pretty much written Peyton off and he has shown surprising home run power especially considering his limited number of at bats. Whereas Scott (whom I do like very much) has the same number of homers as Brian Roberts. So much for predictions based on past year's stats. That is all I am saying, and have been all along. Making predictions using stats is pure speculation. Nobody and I mean NOBODY including the smartest, most brilliant statistical experts known to man would have thought Jay Peyton would be out homering Luke Scott so far with a lot fewer at bats.

On a side note, how about Cintron and his 4-4? Looks like Freddie has some competition!

[clapdiddy]

The good thing that's happening with Payton is that Trembley is using him against LHP and its paying off.

I would never let Payton start against a RHP unless someone needed a day off desperately. This is where managers have gotten in trouble with him in the past. The guy is a perfect platoon outfielder...and that's all he should be.

[Crazysilver03]

People are taking this thread wrong so far by most of their responses. I wasn't trying to bait anyone or make stats people irritated, I was just trying to illustrate that many times they are quite wrong. Most had pretty much written Peyton off and he has shown surprising home run power especially considering his limited number of at bats. Whereas Scott (whom I do like very much) has the same number of homers as Brian Roberts. So much for predictions based on past year's stats. That is all I am saying, and have been all along. Making predictions using stats is pure speculation. Nobody and I mean NOBODY including the smartest, most brilliant statistical experts known to man would have thought Jay Peyton would be out homering Luke Scott so far with a lot fewer at bats.

Stats predictions are for END-OF-YEAR stats, not May 17th stats.

No one would predict it because it wont be kept up. Check back at the end of the year.

[Spoonless]

People are taking this thread wrong so far by most of their responses. I wasn't trying to bait anyone or make stats people irritated, I was just trying to illustrate that many times they are quite wrong. Most had pretty much written Peyton off and he has shown surprising home run power especially considering his limited number of at bats. Whereas Scott (whom I do like very much) has the same number of homers as Brian Roberts. So much for predictions based on past year's stats. That is all I am saying, and have been all along. Making predictions using stats is pure speculation.

Well last year, Scott had 4 HR through the end of May, so he's only one shy of last year, with half a month to go. Meanwhile, he's already matched his 2B total from April and May last year. So it's not really a surprise what Scott is doing. His production is falling in line rather nicely with what he did last year.

I'm just wondering if your "observing baseball for 40 years" prediction abilities had Payton having 4 HR at this point in the season.

[theobird]

People are taking this thread wrong so far by most of their responses. I wasn't trying to bait anyone or make stats people irritated, I was just trying to illustrate that many times they are quite wrong. Most had pretty much written Peyton off and he has shown surprising home run power especially considering his limited number of at bats. Whereas Scott (whom I do like very much) has the same number of homers as Brian Roberts. So much for predictions based on past year's stats. That is all I am saying, and have been all along. Making predictions using stats is pure speculation. Nobody and I mean NOBODY including the smartest, most brilliant statistical experts known to man would have thought Jay Peyton would be out homering Luke Scott so far with a lot fewer at bats.

On a side note, how about Cintron and his 4-4? Looks like Freddie has some competition!

OldFan, you are making me laugh. Now I am an old schooler, a defense first, judge by my eyes kinda guy. The stats freaks can get annoying, from time to time. But the real truth is that the answer lies somewhere in between. The numbers are an indicator. They are just part of the analysis, though. If you really have a keen eye, you can also "see" talent, drive, intelligence, etc. By using both some numbers and scouting, you predict more effectively.

But keep on my friend. I enjoy a lot of your posts, and we actually share some of the same perspectives. Just try to keep it between the lines.

[Old#5fan]

Is the season over already?

I guess you didn't hear your idol talking earlier tonight about how Scott's hamstring has been bothering him - and as a result has sapped a bit of his power. Palmer went on to say that Scott's hamstring has been better lately - thus the two home runs this week. But why let facts get in the way of your childishness?

Tell you what, want to place a friendly (non-monetary) wager on who will hit more home runs this year?

Scott has hit 36 flyballs in 43 Orioles games this year (counting the suspended game. At his current pace he'll hit roughly 140 flyballs this year. (NOTE: I normally try to avoid doing the x times in 42 games equates to y times in 162 games things, but it works for my purposes here).

Payton has now hit 27 flyballs this year, and is on pace to hit roughly 105 flyballs this year.

For his career prior to this season, Scott has hit 204 flyballs. Those flyballs produced 24 home runs (NOTE: the other four HRs came on line drives). He did that while playing in a stadium which, as I recall, plays similar to OPACY in terms of home runs. That works out to a career HR/FB rate of 11.8%. His current HR/FB rate is 8.3%.

Payton had hit 1,099 flyballs of which 56 were homeruns for a HR/FB rate of 5.1%. Payton's current HR/FB rate is 11.1%. (His previous career best of about 13% came in 2003 while playing in pre-humidor Coors Field.)

I'll type this next part slowly so that you can understand it:

Scott > 11.8% career / 8.3% this year

Payton > 5.1% career / 11.1% this year

If you really think Payton is going to continue to hit a home runs at his current pace, then chances are pretty good that you'll be wrong. You could be right, but the odds aren't in your favor.

If each continues to hit flyballs at his current pace, then I'd expect Scott to hit roughly 14-18 home runs on flyballs with another 4-6 home runs from line drives. I'd expect Payton to hit 5-7 home runs on flyballs this year with another 2-3 on line drives.

So you are predicting Scott now to hit anywhere from 21-27 homers this season and Payton anywhere from 11-14? I think you are probably about right with Payton but I believe you are about 10 homers too high with Scott. I say Scott will be anywhere from 11-17. I originally predicted 14 and have a bet with someone on this.