How Many Stats Guru's Predicted That....

[Crazysilver03]

So you are predicting Scott now to hit anywhere from 21-27 homers this season and Payton anywhere from 11-14? I think you are probably about right with Payton but I believe you are about 10 homers too high with Scott. I say Scott will be anywhere from 11-17. I originally predicted 14 and have a bet with someone on this.

Do you actually pay attention to the argument?

The stats predict end of the year totals, not up-to-this-date totals.

[Burg]

Do you actually pay attention to the argument?

The stats predict end of the year totals, not up-to-this-date totals.

No, he doesn't.

Never has, never will.

If he did pay attention he would see that he loses every debate that he enters.

[Hank Scorpio]

"Stat gurus" don't fixate on things like HR.

They tend to migrate to more meaningful rate stats like OPS and EqA that illustrate how much better Scott has been.

Bah!!! Home runs are clearly the best measure of how good someone is. Just ask Rob Deer and Pete Incaviglia.

[Crazysilver03]

One other thing, if you're going to use what you seem to consider to be derogatory term, then the least you could do is spell it properly. The term you're trying to use is Stats Gurus, not Stats Guru's. No need for the apostrophe.

This is the guy that says pEyton will hit more home runs than Scott and that eriC Bedard was his favorite Oriole.

Your going to lose that argument as well. :cussing:

[Lt Melmo]

How many Old#5Fans predicted Luis Hernandez would lose his starting job in a month?

Quit calling people out. For someone with "Old" in his name, you've got to be the most juvenile person here.

[The Wedge]

Ding!

Eat!

Ding!

Eat!

[IamtheSkip]

Who cares which guys will hit more home runrs or have a higher OPS or whatnot?

Honestly, Jay Payton has been a huge part of more than one win this season, which is more than I was expecting from him at the beginning of the year.

Now lets all just hope he plays well enough to get traded.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

[Flip217]

How many stats gurus predicted I'd eat waffles for breakfast this morning? None! Ha! I never eat waffles, but today I did. Just goes to show you that breakfast stats are meaningless and you stat people are wrong.

I've been watching people eat breakfast for years, and I can tell you that all these fancy "Cereal Equivilancy Averages" and "Pancake Appearances" and "Value Over Replacement Muffins" are worthless.

[NewMarketSean]

We'll see who has more homers at the end of the year. Not to mention, Payton shouldn't even be on the team at the end of the year. Not to mention, Luke Scott was dealing with a flu virus for the better part of a week which lead to his long slump.

[Frobby]

People are taking this thread wrong so far by most of their responses. I wasn't trying to bait anyone or make stats people irritated, I was just trying to illustrate that many times they are quite wrong. Most had pretty much written Peyton off and he has shown surprising home run power especially considering his limited number of at bats. Whereas Scott (whom I do like very much) has the same number of homers as Brian Roberts. So much for predictions based on past year's stats. That is all I am saying, and have been all along. Making predictions using stats is pure speculation. Nobody and I mean NOBODY including the smartest, most brilliant statistical experts known to man would have thought Jay Peyton would be out homering Luke Scott so far with a lot fewer at bats.

On a side note, how about Cintron and his 4-4? Looks like Freddie has some competition!

Let's see what 162 games brings us. I'd still gladly bet that Scott will hit at least twice as many HR as Payton.

That said, Payton has made some timely contributions this year even though his overall numbers are not too impressive.

[ScottieBaseball]

Bah!!! Home runs are clearly the best measure of how good someone is. Just ask Rob Deer and Pete Incaviglia.

I'm sorry...are you referring to Hall of Famers Rob Deer and Pete Incaviglia??? What's that? Not in the Hall? But...but...they...they hit homeruns...that you could see! With your eyes! You mean that doesn't make them great players? The hell you say.

[ChaosLex]

I've seen the foolishness of my ways, and I've already stopped using all numbers. I now only describe baseball with poetry, and I predict the outcome of at bats and games using the patterns in my wife's tea leaves at breakfast.

Haha. Zing!

[Dr. FLK]

People are taking this thread wrong so far by most of their responses. I wasn't trying to bait anyone or make stats people irritated, I was just trying to illustrate that many times they are quite wrong. Most had pretty much written Peyton off and he has shown surprising home run power especially considering his limited number of at bats. Whereas Scott (whom I do like very much) has the same number of homers as Brian Roberts. So much for predictions based on past year's stats. That is all I am saying, and have been all along. Making predictions using stats is pure speculation. Nobody and I mean NOBODY including the smartest, most brilliant statistical experts known to man would have thought Jay Peyton would be out homering Luke Scott so far with a lot fewer at bats.

On a side note, how about Cintron and his 4-4? Looks like Freddie has some competition!

Predictions don't go out the window based on a month of poor performance. I don't think many predictions are geared towards small sample sizes.

And, you weren't trying to "bait" the stat guys....really?

[DrungoHazewood]

Predictions don't go out the window based on a month of poor performance. I don't think many predictions are geared towards small sample sizes.

And, you weren't trying to "bait" the stat guys....really?

When you know more than everyone else it's not baiting, it's education. When you've moved beyond "math" and "physics" and upward towards observational gut-based analysis you may be able to understand.

But then again, if you were capable of understanding baseball on an intuitive level you probably would already do it. My advice is to just take the words of your wise elders at face value, and stop trying to make life complicated.

Your numbers-based opinions are wrong. The sooner you realize this the better life will become.

Serenity now.