An inconvenient truth

[webbrick2010]

55 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Wrong, under the new CBA.   

How  are you measuring value?

The only value to me is how successful is the franchise (Wins and Losses, playoffs, World Series)

I have posted on several occasions how the top 10 contracts have netted the franchises who gave them out almost nothing in W/L success

Why will Manny with the O's at say 35 million a year work out better than all the Pujols, Fielder, Aroid, Stanton, Greinke contracts that have failed to translate into a winning franchise. I say enjoy the next two seasons and let Manny move on

[theobird]

15 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

How  are you measuring value?

The only value to me is how successful is the franchise (Wins and Losses, playoffs, World Series)

I have posted on several occasions how the top 10 contracts have netted the franchises who gave them out almost nothing in W/L success

Why will Manny with the O's at say 35 million a year work out better than all the Pujols, Fielder, Aroid, Stanton, Greinke contracts that have failed to translate into a winning franchise. I say enjoy the next two seasons and let Manny move on

I say trade him for a huge haul and move on. The only stupid move is wait and get a comp pick when he leaves. You could take the leap and sign him to a mega deal, but the smart move is to trade him to the highest bidder.

[Camden_yardbird]

 

27 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

How  are you measuring value?

The only value to me is how successful is the franchise (Wins and Losses, playoffs, World Series)

I have posted on several occasions how the top 10 contracts have netted the franchises who gave them out almost nothing in W/L success

Why will Manny with the O's at say 35 million a year work out better than all the Pujols, Fielder, Aroid, Stanton, Greinke contracts that have failed to translate into a winning franchise. I say enjoy the next two seasons and let Manny move on

You either extend him or trade him.  The teams that have succeeded where the teams with the big contract players have failed have done so because they recognize when an asset starts losing value and get maximum value out of it.  You cannot let Manny walk for a 3rd round pick.  That might be on par with Shilling, Harnish, and Finley for Glenn Davis bad.

[backwardsk]

5 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

The new CBA will really 

 

You either extend him or trade him.  The teams that have succeeded where the teams with the big contract players have failed have done so because they recognize when an asset starts losing value and get maximum value out of it.  You cannot let Manny walk for a 3rd round pick.  That might be on par with Shilling, Harnish, and Finley for Glenn Davis bad.

I want to make sure I'm clear on this.  If Manny walks we get a "first round" comp pick, right.  A pick after the first round and second round.  The acquiring team loses a third or whatever.  The receiving compensation is the same.  Right?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Number5 said:

Really?  Please explain.  He was referring to what the team losing the player receives, not what the team signing the player loses.

I misread what you wrote.    My mistake.

[Number5]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I misread what you wrote.    My mistake.

NP

[Number5]

31 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

I want to make sure I'm clear on this.  If Manny walks we get a "first round" comp pick, right.  A pick after the first round and second round.  The acquiring team loses a third or whatever.  The receiving compensation is the same.  Right?

Yes

[weams]

3 hours ago, MagicBird said:

The team has the money and can do it if they want too.  And the idea that there wont be any money left for other players is absurd.  Even DD's comments are just posturing out in the open at this point.  

Where do you get that idea from? Do you give Manny 40% team ownership?

[Number5]

42 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

 

You either extend him or trade him.  The teams that have succeeded where the teams with the big contract players have failed have done so because they recognize when an asset starts losing value and get maximum value out of it.  You cannot let Manny walk for a 3rd round pick.  That might be on par with Shilling, Harnish, and Finley for Glenn Davis bad.

Again, not that we would want Manny to walk for any draft choice, the comp pick would be after the first round, not the third.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

While I can understand your argument, I think it's misleading to refer to the "26th round draft choice, 155 pound Davies."   First of all, while it is correct that Davies was chosen in the 26th round, that's because other teams didn't think they could sign him.    The O's paid him a $575,000 signing bonus, which is basically third-round money.    Second of all, by the time he was traded, Davies had been in our system for 3.7 seasons and had thrived at every level.    Going into the 2015 season, BA, BP, Milb.com and OH all ranked Davies ahead of both Wright and Miller, and there was nothing that happened in 2015 to change that evaluation.   

In another post, you dismissed Josh Hader as being "a 19th round draft pick."    Again I'd say "so what?"   By the time of the trade, Hader was clearly a top 10 prospect for us.

If you want to make the argument for trading these guys to try to make a playoff push, fine.     I was OK with the Norris trade, against the Parra trade.    But don't minimize guys based on where they were drafted, which has little or no relevance once they've got a track record in the minors and scouts have seen their stuff at that level.

The so what is that when the Orioles had several prospects and need to trade to help the major league team they tried to keep their best prospects.

Josh Hader was a  19th rounder and in BA 2013 ranks he did not rank in the O's top 10.   The O's kept Bundy, Gausman and 3rd rounder Wright but they traded Hader who was in the Sally League at the time.  If a team is trying to grow a pitching staff that is what they should do.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2013-baltimore-orioles-top-10-prospects-14258/#rDkvm4Izv6Hb1ti4.97

Yes, Zach Davies was on the O'stop 10 by the time he was trade as was Wright.  Both were having very good years at Norfolk.  Wright ended up 9-1 with a 2.22 ERA.  Davis was 5-6 with a 2.84.   But Davies is not your ideal pitcher build.  6' 0" . 155.   That is skinny.  I know the Pedro Martinez story but its really quite rare.  Wright is 6"6"  215.   That is imposing.   

The point it that the O's keep Bundy, Gausman and Wright has their best long term pitching prospects and used other to help the major league club.  In view of Dan record of winning I have a hard time complaining about that.

[sportsfan8703]

This is a moot point until next offseason.  The teams with the best farm systems have already landed their big player this year and traded away their top prospects in doing so.  We're in win now mode.  

I'll deal with my potential losing after 2018.  I don't think any Oriole fan under 30 could want to trade Machado now.  2012-14= 1998.  If you were 10 in 1998 you went though ages 10-24 of your life with your baseball team losing.  

Appreciate the good years.  These next two are going to be real fun.  

[MagicBird]

20 minutes ago, weams said:

Where do you get that idea from? Do you give Manny 40% team ownership?

Where does everybody get the idea there wont be any money?

[SilentJames]

15 hours ago, backwardsk said:

Fact:  We haven't been to the World Series since Joe Nolan was the backup catcher.  You have to bring him back.

Cleveland went to the World Series with a payroll under $100M.

Why can't DD or whoever takes over build a winning 23 man roster for $100M supported by Manny and Davis?

It has to be noted that Cleveland made the postseason coming out of a weak Central. The Tigers are on the decline, it feels like KC's window has closed, the Twins hit the mat early and never got up and the White Sox started their tank-job for picks. 

Cleveland made the postseason, and once you get there anything can really happen. Just look at the Royals. The Indians' division is weaker, cheaperand building a competitive team is far more easy given an unbalanced schedule. 

[wildbillhiccup]

Sharing some of my comments from the Buster Olney Machado article thread. This should be the game plan. 

1) Try to sign Machado long term during the 2017 season. By mid / late June they need to have an idea of whether or not it's even doable. 

2) If they fall out of contention, begin to shop Manny over the summer. Teams in contention might be more willing to empty out their farm systems and overpay (if that's even possible) for a difference maker like Manny if they're in "win now" mode. 

3) If he has not been traded (or resigned) by the end of the 2017 season then he absolutely needs to be traded before the start of the 2018 season. Ideally by the end of the Winter Meetings. 

 

My personal preferred trading partner would be the Cubs. A package centered around Russell, Contreras, and Happ would definitely help take the sting out of losing Manny. And the Cubs check off all the boxes. Team in "win now" mode (check). Deep farm system (check). Deep enough pockets to sign Manny long term (check). 

[Justinlstn]

27 minutes ago, SilentJames said:

It has to be noted that Cleveland made the postseason coming out of a weak Central. The Tigers are on the decline, it feels like KC's window has closed, the Twins hit the mat early and never got up and the White Sox started their tank-job for picks. 

Cleveland made the postseason, and once you get there anything can really happen. Just look at the Royals. The Indians' division is weaker, cheaperand building a competitive team is far more easy given an unbalanced schedule. 

They also have a better pitching staff. Between their 5 SP they got 79 QS. The Orioles used alot of different pitchers to start and as a whole the team had 69 QS out of 9 different pitchers.