TT: Who would you want as a full-time DH?

[crissfan172]

12 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Only one I recognized from the info given was D.  At least with any certainty.

Having figured out who D is (finally), how in the hell did you recognize him right away? 

[Number5]

LOL.  I just realized that it shows me voting for B.  I haven't voted at all.  If I had been allowed to vote, it would have been for D. 

You guys are smarter than I am.  I still can't figure out who D is.  No IL player's stats from 2016 match up to those numbers that I can see.

[Tony-OH]

17 hours ago, weams said:

I don't think the poll is working correctly up above. Maybe it's me. 

I'm no sure what's going on there. I take a look and see if I can solve the poll thing. Everyone should be able to vote.

[Number5]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm no sure what's going on there. I take a look and see if I can solve the poll thing. Everyone should be able to vote.

Tony, it shows that I, along with many others, voted for B on December 15.  As you know, you put up the poll yesterday.

[Can_of_corn]

5 hours ago, crissfan172 said:

Having figured out who D is (finally), how in the hell did you recognize him right away? 

I didn't. 

Turns out I was mistaken.  I knew there were a couple points of commonality with a name and I posted without thoroughly checking since I didn't want to "cheat" on the other ones.

[Tony-OH]

19 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Just thought I'd try this little exercise and see how it comes out. If you had to choose between these candidates, who would you install as the full-time DH? BTW, all four players played in the same league. For more fun, put them in order.

Player A: 27-years old at spring training, .284/.344/.494/.838 with 30 2B, 23 HR, and 46/85 BB/K ratio at AAA the year before, once rated #23 prospect in baseball by BA
Career Minor League Slash line .277/.342/.446/.788

Player B: 26-years old at spring training, .264/.321/.437/.757 with 29 2B, 18 HR, and 40/138 BB/K ratio at AAA the year before
Career Minor League Slash line .276/.342/.449/.791

Player C: 25-years old at spring training, .280/.349/.427/.775 with 22 2B, 13 HR, and 48/123 BB/K ratio at AAA the year before
Career Minor League Slash line.306/.357/.477/.834

Player D: 24-years old at spring training, .305/.379/.515/.894 with 32 2B, 19 HR, and 54/136 BB/K ratio at AAA the year before, twice named Top 100 prospect by BA (#95, #45)
Career Minor League Slash line .293/.368/.473/.841

Although the voting results were screwed up (I'll look into that and fix it), the fact that almost everyone picked D makes sense based on the information provided. I tricked you guys a bit as they all did play in the same league, but I never said during the same year: So who were the players?

Player A: Chris Marrero - The former top prospect and Orioles farm hand at one time seems to have had a resurgence last year with Boston's AAA team after looking like he was done a few years back. He was signed by the Giants as a minor league free agent this offseason so basically he was available for nothing.

Player B: Christian Walker - Walker is really not considered more than a AAAA guy by most scouts due to his slow bat and lack of defensive value. If you notice though, his stats are not as good as Player C, but not that far off him either.

Player C: Trey Mancini - Hears the guy some people want the Orioles to give the DH to in 2017 although by most indications the Orioles seem to be not trying to give him that chance. Why do you think the Orioles are hestitant to give him the job? Well most of us agree that player D seems to be the better overall prospect. He's younger than Mancini, slashed better than him the year before, was lauded as a top prospect in all of baseball by BA, and has a similar BB/K ratio. 

So who was Player D?

Player D: Josh Fields - The former #1 pick of the White Sox in 2004 quickly made his way to AAA where he put up those numbers in 526 PAs with Charlotte in in 2006. Fields would go on and slash .244/.308/.480/.788 in 418 PAs with the White Sox in 2007, hitting 23 home runs and putting up a 35/125 BB/K ratio. He quickly though got exposed against right-handed pitching and over his career he ended up slashing .209/.280/.343/.623 against them. He did always hit left-handed pitching well slashing 293/.357/.600/.957 over his career. Overall Fields ended up slashing .234/.303/.421/.724 in 796 major league PAs while accumulating a -1.4 WAR partly due to his -1.9 dWAR.

Fields is a cautionary tail for Mancini. Obviously you can't always use previous players success or lack of success as the only basis to go off as predictive analysis for how a player will perform in the future, but they do serve as a tool to use in trying to do the determination of a player chance of success.

Honestly, I could see Mancini following a similar career path as Fields because they have very similar tools. Plus raw power, the ability to hit lefties, lack of defensive value, and their struggles against good right-handed pitching.

In the end, this drill was to just give those who want to give Mancini the full-time DH spot in 2017 a little more information on why the Orioles don't seem so inclined to do so unless they can't find a better option. If you are ok with another hitter with a little pop and low OBP skills who can play only first base (slightly below average but not terrible) when he's not DHing, then Mancini will fill that void pretty cheaply. But, with a lineup full of those kinds of guys, I'm not so sure he's a great fit into this lineup full-time.

[25 Nuggets]

Ah.  Well I don't want to hand the DH job to Mancini so this makes me feel good.  Mancini makes sense for backup 1B/DH especially if the primary DH is  left handed (Pedro Alvarez, Brandon Moss, Hyun-Soo Kim)

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, 25 Nuggets said:

Ah.  Well I don't want to hand the DH job to Mancini so this makes me feel good.  Mancini makes sense for backup 1B/DH especially if the primary DH is  left handed (Pedro Alvarez, Brandon Moss, Hyun-Soo Kim)

Mancini would have more value with his same skill set, but batting left-handed. 

[El Gordo]

48 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Mancini would have more value with his same skill set, but batting left-handed. 

How were Mancini's MiL splits?

[Satyr3206]

The stats show me that 75% of them have very little idea of the strike zone. As a hitter, that's a huge problem.

 

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, Satyr3206 said:

The stats show me that 75% of them have very little idea of the strike zone. As a hitter, that's a huge problem.

 

Yep, and why they most likely will not be everyday players. Minor League BB/K ratio is a huge indicator for future success in the major leagues. The thing that Mancini has for him is that he hits for a high average despite his unimpressive BB/K ratio.

[Frobby]

This was a good exercise.   I recognize the caution flags with Mancini, I just feel that philosophically, sometimes you have to take some risks on a young player.   To me, Mancini's a better risk than say, Wright and Wilson were, and yet we gave those guys lots of opportunities.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

This was a good exercise.   I recognize the caution flags with Mancini, I just feel that philosophically, sometimes you have to take some risks on a young player.   To me, Mancini's a better risk than say, Wright and Wilson were, and yet we gave those guys lots of opportunities.

I'm all about giving young players opportunities, but I don't think you can give a guy a full-time DH role when his minor league numbers have cautionary flags. Now maybe Mancini will continue to improve, but I'd like to see him force his way to the big leagues by scorching AAA, cutting down on his K's, and upping his walk totals. I'd rather go the Bautista route, but I know I'm in the minority with that one.