TT: Trumbo vs Pedro Alvarez for DH

[Tony-OH]

Fun stat of the day

2016 slash lines against LHP
Trumbo - .173/.223/.385/.608
Alvarez - .243/.293/.378/.671

Assuming same performance over the same amount of PA as Trumbo got, Alvarez would have hit 39 home runs last year.

2016 stats lines with same amount of PAs
Trumbo - .256/.316/.533/.850, 47 HR, 51 BB, 170K
Alvarez - .249/.322/.504/.826 39 HR, 65 BB, 172K

BTW, 2nd half Slash lines last year:
Trumbo - 214/.284/.470/.754 in 292 PA
Alvarez -  .273/.348/.524/.872 in 161 PA

Goes back to Buck being stubborn, why was Alvarez sitting during September?

If the Orioles could sign Alvarez for full-time DH, they could then keep either Aneury Tavarez or long shot, Anthony Santander (has more of an upside than Tavarez but much rawer) as 5th outfielders.

Gotta assume Alvarez will be much cheaper than Trumbo.

[Spy Fox]

I doubt they will do it but I would love to see them sign two more players-- one outfielder (Rasmus, Saunders, or Pagan) and one DH type (Napoli, Valbuena, or Alvarez). Yes most of those are lefties but they are simply the best players available outside of Trumbo (who I think will cost more money and years, even if his market is a bit down) and Bautista (who probably isn't coming here for already discussed reasons). 

It would be crowded and lefty heavy but I think it gives us the best overall roster. Say we add P. Alvarez and Pagan. Against righties you have LF/RF/DH to split ABs between Alvarez/Pagan/Kim/Smith. That's four players for three spots, which means somebody sits each day but you can divide up the at-bats depending on fatigue, injuries, hot hand, etc. Then against lefties you plug in Rickard and Mancini into one of the OF spots an DH, leaving one spot in the OF to rotate between Kim or Pagan or Smith depending on the day. It's not the cleanest way of splitting up time, but I think it would work decently. 

[Frobby]

I think I'll trust Trumbo's .787 career OPS vs. LHP more than his .608 last year.   Ironically, when we traded for him there was much discussion of the fact that he was much better vs. LHP than RHP, but last year was the exception that proved the Rule.

Alvarez, on the other hand, has a .606 OPS vs. LHP in his career over 664 PA, which I'd trust more than the stats he amassed last year in 41 PA.

[25 Nuggets]

Like Spy Fox says, it doesn't have to be either/or with Trumbo and Alvarez.

I'd actually prefer to move Kim to DH at this point and go for Pagan, Saunders, Rasmus or even Valbuena and move him to OF.  Both corner OF spots need a bump in defense, really.

Even then, there's still Chris Carter and Brandon Moss available.  This Smith trade has made the market that much better for the Orioles.

[Tony-OH]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think I'll trust Trumbo's .787 career OPS vs. LHP more than his .608 last year.   Ironically, when we traded for him there was much discussion of the fact that he was much better vs. LHP than RHP, but last year was the exception that proved the Rule.

Alvarez, on the other hand, has a .606 OPS vs. LHP in his career over 664 PA, which I'd trust more than the stats he amassed last year in 41 PA.

That's why those stats were "fun facts".

Still, If Alvarez can be had much cheaper, I wouldn't mind him at DH again next year considering the other options. I guess there's always the Pagan option and moving Kim to DH with Mancini as his platoon partner.

[backwardsk]

15 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

That's why those stats were "fun facts".

Still, If Alvarez can be had much cheaper, I wouldn't mind him at DH again next year considering the other options. I guess there's always the Pagan option and moving Kim to DH with Mancini as his platoon partner.

Signing Alvarez would mean that one of Kim, Alvarez, or Smith would have to start against lefties.  I don't think that's the best way to go.

Even with Smith, I'd still be interested in a Brach for Granderson + prospect deal.  Have him be the full time right fielder.

[wildcard]

16 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

That's why those stats were "fun facts".

Still, If Alvarez can be had much cheaper, I wouldn't mind him at DH again next year considering the other options. I guess there's always the Pagan option and moving Kim to DH with Mancini as his platoon partner.

Since the O's acquired Smith, probably to play RF, I think it may eliminate Pedro as an addition to the team this year.

Platooning or sharing 4 positions and carrying Flaherty as a UIF just does not work.   If the O's are platooning or sharing in LF, RF, DH and Catcher while carrying a UIF that is 5 bench spots.  The O's are only likely to have 4 bench spots on a 13 position player roster.

[theobird]

If it were up to me, I would now go out and get Pagan. Pagan would be my everyday RFer and leadoff hitter. Seth Smith and Rickard would be a loose platoon in LF and Kim and Mancini would share the DH duties. The OF defense would be much improved and I actually would like this team better than last years team.

[Frobby]

55 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Since the O's acquired Smith, probably to play RF, I think it may eliminate Pedro as an addition to the team this year.

Platooning or sharing 4 positions and carrying Flaherty as a UIF just does not work.   If the O's are platooning or sharing in LF, RF, DH and Catcher while carrying a UIF that is 5 bench spots.  The O's are only likely to have 4 bench spots on a 13 position player roster.

As I documented last week, there were 37 LH hitters in MLB last year who had 100+ PAs and saw RHP 85% of the time or more.    That's my definition of a LH platoon player.   Only one team had three such players: the Orioles (Kim, Alvarez, Flaherty).   And Flaherty's not really a platoon player, he's a sub.   So you're right, there's a limit to how much platooning a team can do.   

[sportsfan8703]

Fast starter vs slow starter. Trumbo would be ther better option in 2017. I think Bautista is the best fit. Mancini looks to be AAA bound. 

[Tony-OH]

15 hours ago, backwardsk said:

Signing Alvarez would mean that one of Kim, Alvarez, or Smith would have to start against lefties.  I don't think that's the best way to go.

Even with Smith, I'd still be interested in a Brach for Granderson + prospect deal.  Have him be the full time right fielder.

I think the idea is that Alvarez would be full-time DH. I too would not have a problem with Brach for Granderson and put Smith left or DH, depending on who is better defensively between him and Kim. I still prefer Bautiista to a 3-yr contract if the contract was reasonable.

[Tony-OH]

15 hours ago, wildcard said:

Since the O's acquired Smith, probably to play RF, I think it may eliminate Pedro as an addition to the team this year.

Platooning or sharing 4 positions and carrying Flaherty as a UIF just does not work.   If the O's are platooning or sharing in LF, RF, DH and Catcher while carrying a UIF that is 5 bench spots.  The O's are only likely to have 4 bench spots on a 13 position player roster.

Alvarez has slashed .258/.292/.419/.712 and .243/.293/.378/.671 against left-handers the last two years. That's not great, but it's not a total hole either. I might be ok with giving him a chance to be full-time DH if they can't get a better option.

[thezeroes]

13 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Alvarez has slashed .258/.292/.419/.712 and .243/.293/.378/.671 against left-handers the last two years. That's not great, but it's not a total hole either. I might be ok with giving him a chance to be full-time DH if they can't get a better option.

The Orioles in 2016 against Left Handed Starters  http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats_team.cgi?full=1&params=plato|vs LH Starter|BAL|2016|bat|AB|

Warning as it is a small sample size for players in one year BUT.

[PaulFolk]

5 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Alvarez has slashed .258/.292/.419/.712 and .243/.293/.378/.671 against left-handers the last two years. That's not great, but it's not a total hole either. I might be ok with giving him a chance to be full-time DH if they can't get a better option.

Alvarez started only two games against left-handed starters last year. I think the O's view him as a strict platoon guy only, and I think that's fair.