How much more is Chris Davis worth than Mark Trumbo

[birdcrazy]

I see everyone posting how he is not worth 3/$50m, which is like $16.5M a year.

We have Chris Davis who is 3 months younger signed for 6 more years at $23m per year.

What makes these guys so different value wise? The both are not great Outfielders. I am not sure who would be better at first..maybe edge to Davis. In the past Trumbo has lost time to injury. Davis will always have a nice home run number, but has had two of the last 4 seasons not however has turned in two not so good years in the last 3 years be terrible otherwise.  Davis is left handed..not sure how much value that adds.

To me..they are almost the same player.  So the question becomes...did we HIGHLY over pay for Davis, or is Trumbo Highly undervalued right now? 

I am not even touching the question if we need two of that kinda player in the lineup.

[Spy Fox]

Over the past five seasons Davis is about 30 points higher in OBP, which is a sizable difference. Last year Davis had what was perceived to be a down year, and Trumbo had the best year of his life, but Trumbo still made more outs than Davis in almost exactly the same number of plate appearances. 

Davis also has a slightly better power track record and is probably better at 1b. 

But I see your point and it's why many didn't want Davis back at the price. It's a combination of us overpaying for Davis' services and the slugger market being a bit depressed right now compared to last offseason. 

[theobird]

The answer is......Not much, but that was last offseasons mistake. And we definitely should not repeat it.

[ArtVanDelay]

Chris Davis' ceiling is 6 WAR. Mark Trumbo's ceiling is 2 WAR. 

[25 Nuggets]

The problem here is that we didn't see Trumbo play 1B at Camden Yards.  Although 1B is Trumbo's best position, he's only played roughly half his career innings there.  So let's add to the question, how much more is Chris Davis worth to the Orioles?

Davis was the runner up to Mitch Moreland for the 1B gold glove award.  Over the past five seasons, largely at 1B, Chris Davis has averaged 3.6 wins (both per Baseball Reference and FanGraphs), which is near or at All-Star level.  He's been up-and-down offensively, and he has his flaws, but he is still close to a cornerstone player.  The kind of player that has gotten $20+ mil AAV over the past decade.

Trumbo is probably not as good defensively at 1B at Davis, even if he is solid there.  His defensive value would have been close to the same last season if he had played strict DH instead of RF/DH.  Even with some time at 1B, he has averaged 1.4 wins per both sources.  Last season with the Orioles he was basically a two-win player (1.6 reference, 2.2 fangraphs).

Here are the last five seasons by wRC+ for both players:

• DAVIS (642)
  • 121
  • 168
  • 94
  • 148
  • 111
• TRUMBO (551)
  • 124
  • 107
  • 90
  • 107
  • 123

Trumbo is likely to be on par with Davis at best next season, as his "career year" isn't even close to that of Crush.  Add the significant difference in defensive value to the equation and Davis is much more valuable to the Orioles, perhaps 2.5 times as much.

[weams]

3 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

Id do a 3 year deal for Trumbo at 15-16m per in a heart beat. I LIKE that its 3 years..he'll be 34 at the end of the deal..thats when the power drops off. I WANT TRUMBO BACK.BAD,He protects the deep slumps Davis always goes into and Trumbo hits more meaningful HR's too.

I guess they are waiting to see who they are going to trial with first.

[Diehard_O's_Fan]

I agree with you 100% Roy. The Orioles will rely on Chris Davis to much if Mark Trumbo does not come back. However, I want Trumbo to be the primary DH if the Orioles resign him. Dan is right when he says that the Orioles outfield defense needs to improve.

[birdcrazy]

The thing is, what is the value of an "average" First Baseman compared to an "Almost Gold Glove" First Basemen. I feel like in some postions that is huge...like SS, Catcher, 3B even. However I dont think 1B is a position you overspend on defense.

[wildcard]

Davis is a two way player.  To the O's Trumbo is a DH who backs up RF and 1B.  Trumbo's defensive reputation doesn't seem to get him a 3/40m deal  to play in the field  any where in baseball.

[BradyBunch]

17 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Davis is a two way player.  To the O's Trumbo is a DH who backs up RF and 1B.  Trumbo's defensive reputation doesn't seem to get him a 3/40m deal  for him to play in the field  any where in baseball.

s 

This is correct. Davis is a two way player. CD is a solid 1st baseman. CD without injury is one of the best hitters (power) in both leagues. I'll even make the bold claim that he will repeat close to his 2015 numbers in 2017 with a little bit of help, be it Trumbo or Machado in the 4 hole and Jones in the 5 hole.

[El Gordo]

Davis in a down year is better than Trumbo in a career year.

[Aristotelian]

9 hours ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Chris Davis' ceiling is 6 WAR. Mark Trumbo's ceiling is 2 WAR. 

Trumbo has a higher ceiling if he could have an opportunity to play 1B. 

[Aristotelian]

My question is, how much more valuable is Trumbo than Pedro Alvarez?

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

My question is, how much more valuable is Trumbo than Pedro Alvarez?

Considerably.    You don't have to platoon him, and he's a better defender (not that he's good).

[theobird]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

My question is, how much more valuable is Trumbo than Pedro Alvarez?

If you need a first baseman, then quite a bit. As a DH? Not so much. It also depends on if you need a guy to Play everyday against both LH and RH pitching. If that's the case, Trumbo has a good deal more value.