Make your best offer to Chris Tillman

[Bradysburns]

Looking at the news ticker, it looks like Tillman will make about $10 million in arbitration. 

It also sounds like the Orioles tried to talk extension previously, without success. 

What would be your best offer to either 1) extend Tillman now... or 2) sign him in free agency?

I'd offer to extend him three years, for a total of four more years of Tilly for $60 million... I'm slightly doubtful he'd take it, but that's what I'd offer. He's a very good pitcher. But to me, he's not consistent or dominant enough to be the #1 starter on most MLB staffs. In fact, I suspect Gausman will be our de facto #1 by the end of this coming season. 

[clapdiddy]

I would offer a 4 year deal broken down like this:

2017 - 11M

2018 - 15M

2019 - 18M

2020 - 20M

So...a 4/64 deal.   

[Frobby]

Tillman would be crazy to accept less than a 5-year deal, in my opinion.    I'd offer him 5/$75 and consider sweetening it to 5/$80 mm, assuming $10-11 mm for this season and about $17 mm/yr for the others.  

[weams]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Tillman would be crazy to accept less than a 5-year deal, in my opinion.    I'd offer him 5/$75 and consider sweetening it to 5/$80 mm, assuming $10-11 mm for this season and about $17 mm/yr for the others.  

Yes. That's it. 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, weams said:

Yes. That's it. 

The FIPsters won't like it. 

[wildbillhiccup]

The Orioles are not going to offer a five year deal to a pitcher. Heck, I even thing they'd be hard pressed to offer a four year deal. 

Someone will probably give Tillman a five year deal, but he's certainly not the type of pitcher I would give one to. Those deals would be reserved for the "true" number 1 starters. 

[Redskins Rick]

17 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

The Orioles are not going to offer a five year deal to a pitcher. Heck, I even thing they'd be hard pressed to offer a four year deal. 

Someone will probably give Tillman a five year deal, but he's certainly not the type of pitcher I would give one to. Those deals would be reserved for the "true" number 1 starters. 

Thats the cost of signing pitchers, look around the league at some of the lesser pitchers, and terms.

[Frobby]

26 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

The Orioles are not going to offer a five year deal to a pitcher. Heck, I even thing they'd be hard pressed to offer a four year deal. 

Someone will probably give Tillman a five year deal, but he's certainly not the type of pitcher I would give one to. Those deals would be reserved for the "true" number 1 starters. 

"True" no. 1 starters get 7 year deals.    No. 2's get five year deals.  

[big_sparxx]

whats the idea behind not offering 4-5 year deals to pitchers?

[clapdiddy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Tillman would be crazy to accept less than a 5-year deal, in my opinion.    I'd offer him 5/$75 and consider sweetening it to 5/$80 mm, assuming $10-11 mm for this season and about $17 mm/yr for the others.  

I think that's a pretty reasonable offer.   

[oriole]

Anyone else not enamored with the thought of paying Tillman a bunch of money to stick around? My best offer would probably be something like 4/48...he has always seemed to pitch above his head. Which is okay I guess if the results are there and he is consistent but I think he is expendable.

[Going Underground]

1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

The Orioles are not going to offer a five year deal to a pitcher. Heck, I even thing they'd be hard pressed to offer a four year deal. 

Someone will probably give Tillman a five year deal, but he's certainly not the type of pitcher I would give one to. Those deals would be reserved for the "true" number 1 starters. 

“Let’s face it, guys: Five-year contracts for starting pitchers have proven to be a pretty consistent graveyard. It just doesn’t work. You’re lucky to get three. And that’s what some of these clubs do. They pay five or six to get three, and that’s why the premium is on the June draft and the five or six picks that we’re going to get in the first round. And we’ve got to hit on some of those Friday night pitchers like Kevin Gausman.”

 

 

https://thebaltimorewire.com/2016/01/20/baltimore-orioles-buck-showalter-on-the-pitching-strategy/

[Can_of_corn]

34 minutes ago, big_sparxx said:

whats the idea behind not offering 4-5 year deals to pitchers?

The franchise is risk adverse.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, grimed1 said:

“Let’s face it, guys: Five-year contracts for starting pitchers have proven to be a pretty consistent graveyard. It just doesn’t work. You’re lucky to get three. And that’s what some of these clubs do. They pay five or six to get three, and that’s why the premium is on the June draft and the five or six picks that we’re going to get in the first round. And we’ve got to hit on some of those Friday night pitchers like Kevin Gausman.”

 

 

https://thebaltimorewire.com/2016/01/20/baltimore-orioles-buck-showalter-on-the-pitching-strategy/

Theoretically, I'd love to avoid 5 year deals with pitchers.   Realistically, during periods of time when the system isn't producing new plausible starting pitchers and some of your existing pitchers' contracts are expiring, I think you have to be flexible.   

[FuManchu]

42 minutes ago, big_sparxx said:

whats the idea behind not offering 4-5 year deals to pitchers?

Mike Leake, Wei-Yin Chen, Jeff Samardzija, Jordan Zimmermann, Brandon McCarthy, Matt Garza, Ricky Nolasco, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jason Vargas, James Shields, Edwin Jackson, Anibal Sanchez